Mackinders 'Heartland' concept
Mackinders 'World Island' concept 
Mackinders 'Rimland' concept
'Containment' concept 

Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;

who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;

who rules the World-Island commands the world.

 Mackinder, 'Democratic Ideals and Reality: A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction', 1919

"...the Addis Ababa Conference taught, to those who will learn, this further lesson:

that until the philosophy which holds one race superior and another inferior is finally and permanently discredited and abandoned;

that until there are no longer first class and second class citizens of any nation;

that until the color of a man's skin is of no more significance than the color of his eyes;

that until the basic human rights are equally guaranteed to all without regard to race;

that until that day, the dream of lasting peace and world citizenship and the rule of international morality will remain but a fleeting illusion, to be pursued but never attained.

And until the ignoble and unhappy regimes that hold our brothers in Angola, in Mozambique and in South Africa in subhuman bondage have been toppled and destroyed;

until bigotry and prejudice and malicious and inhuman self-interest have been replaced by understanding and tolerance and good-will;

until all Africans stand and speak as free beings, equal in the eyes of all men, as they are in the eyes of Heaven;

until that day, the African continent will not know peace. We Africans will fight, if necessary, and we know that we shall win, as we are confident in the victory of good over evil.

The goal of the equality of man which we seek is the antithesis of the exploitation of one people by another with which the pages of history and in particular those written of the African and Asian continents, speak at such length.

Exploitation, thus viewed, has many faces.

But whatever guise it assumes, this evil is to be shunned where it does not exist and crushed where it does.

It is the sacred duty of this Organization to ensure that the dream of equality is finally realized for all men to whom it is still denied, to guarantee that exploitation is not reincarnated in other forms in places whence it has already been banished.

As a free Africa has emerged during the past decade, a fresh attack has been launched against exploitation, wherever it still exists.

And in that interaction so common to history, this in turn, has stimulated and encouraged the remaining dependent peoples to renewed efforts to throw off the yoke which has oppressed them and its claim as their birthright the twin ideals of liberty and equality.

This very struggle is a struggle to establish peace, and until victory is assured, that brotherhood and understanding which nourish and give life to peace can be but partial and incomplete."
Haile Selassie, Emperor of Ethiopia, address to the United Nations General Assembly October 4, 1963

"Eurasia is the world's axial supercontinent. A power that dominated Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over two of the world's three most economically productive regions, Western Europe and East Asia. A glance at the map also suggests that a country dominant in Eurasia would almost automatically control the Middle East and Africa. With Eurasia now serving as the decisive geopolitical chessboard, it no longer suffices to fashion one policy for Europe and another for Asia.

What happens with the distribution of power on the Eurasian landmass will be of decisive importance to America's global primacy and historical legacy....

...In the short run, the United States should consolidate and perpetuate the prevailing geopolitical pluralism on the map of Eurasia. This strategy will put a premium on political maneuvering and diplomatic manipulation, preventing the emergence of a hostile coalition that could challenge America's primacy...

...By the medium term, the foregoing should lead to the emergence of strategically compatible partners which, prompted by American leadership, might shape a more cooperative trans-Eurasian security system.

In the long run, the foregoing could become the global core of genuinely shared political responsibility...In Eurasia's center, the area between an enlarging Europe and a regionally rising China will remain a political black hole until Russia firmly redefines itself as a post-imperial state.
Zbigniew Brzezinski 1997

"A recent visit to Ukraine by US senators Richard Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham has come to our attention. Following a meeting with the Kiev-based neo-Nazis and their ringleader, they told the media that the latter was “ready to reach a strategic agreement with the United States regarding rare earth metals worth more than a trillion dollars owned by Ukraine.”"
Maria Zakharova, Spokeswoman, Russian Federation Foreign Ministry, 21 August 2024

"...when Russia began to recover from the challenges facing it, when it restored its constitutional unity, among other things, which was very difficult to do, when it began developing, Russia began to emerge as a competitor, both on the political arena and in international security, as well as in production, science, the energy sector – and this is no longer to their liking.

Therefore, our so-called partners began to pursue a containment policy.

In fact, the containment policy has been pursued against Russia for centuries; there is nothing new about it. If you look through diplomatic correspondence, for example, from the early 19^th century, it looks as if it was written yesterday.

I can honestly tell you, as if it was yesterday. It is amazing. You read it, and everything is the same, word for word. Astonishing, but true.
Vladimir Putin 8 December 2021

"Imagine what happens if we, in fact, unite all of Europe and Putin is finally put down where he cannot cause the kind of trouble he's been causing"
Joseph Biden, October 2023

"Clearly, a new equal and indivisible security framework must be created in Eurasia in the foreseeable future. We are ready for a substantive discussion on this subject with all countries and associations that may be interested in it. At the same time, I would like to reiterate (I think this is important for everyone) that no enduring international order is possible without a strong and sovereign Russia.

We strive to unite the global majority’s efforts to respond to international challenges, such as turbulent transformation of the world economy, trade, finance, and technology markets, when former monopolies and stereotypes associated with them are collapsing.

For example, in 2028, the BRICS countries, with account taken of the new members, will create about 37 percent of global GDP, while the G7 numbers will fall below 28 percent. These figures are quite telling because the situation was completely different just 10 or 15 years ago. You have heard me say it publicly before. These are the trends, you see. These are the global trends, and there is no escaping them since they are objective reality...

...We will continue to work with friendly countries to create effective and safe logistics corridors, relying on cutting-edge solutions for building a new global financial architecture that would be free from any political interference.."
Vladimir Putin 29 February 2024

In the mid-1990s, we were good for everyone and everyone liked us, when we received potatoes as humanitarian aid. Thanks for this...However...when Russia began...to emerge as a competitor...this is no longer to their liking.
Vladimir Putin 8 December 2021

Declares further that:
The principles of the Charter which are embodied in this Declaration constitute basic principles of international law,..."

There it is. In black ink. Inarguable. Any form of coercion is illegal under international law.

On December 5 2023 the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran added further weight to this when they signed a bilateral declaration on unilateral coercion measures the preamble to which notes:

"Reaffirming General Assembly resolution 3281 (XXIX) of 12 December 1974 containing the Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of States, pursuant to which no State may use or encourage the use of economic, political or any other type of measures to coerce another State in order to obtain from it the subordination of the exercise of its sovereign rights"

The Declaration also notes "unilateral coercive measures in certain cases run counter to Security Council resolutions adopted under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations and violate Security Council prerogatives under the Charter of the United Nations."

They make the further point that illegal coercive measures also "create obstacles" impede human rights, rights laid out in international legal instruments that carry the signatures of the perpetrators of coercive actions. Malign actions that deny people full enjoyment of their human rights.

"I would like to start the discussion of unilateral coercive measures by stating the obvious. Those measures are illegal under international law. Unilateral coercive measures represent an open attack on the principles of sovereign equality of states, non-interference in their internal affairs and international cooperation enshrined in the UN Charter...these tools are used by Western states that openly embrace them as part of their foreign policy...

The unilateral coercive measures are yet another manifestation of neocolonial practices and an attempt to divide the entire world into masters and slaves. For the former, there are endless exceptions from the "rules-based world order", while the latter can only count on the whip, the modern analog of which is the notorious “sanctions policy”.

The position of the United Nations with strong condemnation of such measures was formulated long ago.

In the 1965 Declaration on the Inadmissibility of Intervention in the Domestic Affairs of States and the Protection of Their Independence and Sovereignty (adopted by UNGA Resolution 2131) it is clearly stated that “No State may use or encourage the use of economic, political or any other type of measures to coerce another State in order to obtain from it the subordination of the exercise of its sovereign rights or to secure from it advantages of any kind”.

The relevance of UN General Assembly Resolution 72/201 entitled “Unilateral economic measures as a means of political and economic coercion against developing countries” is only growing.

Thus, the correct name for the 'unilateral coercive measures' would be 'illegal coercive measures'. ...Western countries lose all interest in human rights issues as soon as it comes to their own unilateral coercive measures, which...are designed for maximum, “carpet-like” coverage. They are not at all embarrassed by the fact that ordinary citizens suffer. This is the exact goal - to cause as much suffering as possible to the population in order to aggravate socio-economic problems, which they can conveniently use to change “undesirable” regimes.

Third states are often affected by unilateral coercive measures imposed by the United States and its allies. The countries most affected are always those that already find themselves in a vulnerable position. The “collateral damage” caused, however significant, is of no concern to Washington, London or Brussels.

From the point of view of the unique mandate of the Security Council, the policy of unilateral restrictions is an attack on the established principles of international sanctions as provided in the UN Charter. Illegal unilateral coercive measures imposed without a Council resolution under Chapter VII of the UN Charter are incompatible with the principle of international cooperation and hamper it even in those areas where there is an urgent need and objective interest in combining efforts (counter-terrorism, non-proliferation and disarmament, etc.)...

Domestic political, socio-economic and humanitarian crises provoked in the states affected by unilateral coercive measures lead to refugee problems and cross-border terrorist activity. Artificially fueled instability often spills over to the regional level...

States imposing unilateral coercive measures bear full responsibility for undermining national counter-terrorism efforts, international cooperation in the global fight against this threat, and creating conditions conducive to its proliferation."
Maria Zabolotskaya, Deputy Permanent Representative at an "Arria-formula" meeting of UNSC members 25 March 2024

Coercive diplomacy, in concept and in action, is illegal. All those using it know full well it is illegal. They are contemptuous of International law, as well as their own domestic law, as the provisions of the Charter of the the United Nations forms part of the body of law of all the countries which are signatories.

Coercive diplomacy held in check by the balance of power

Prior to the break-up of the Soviet Union, there was a balance of power between the two superpowers -  The United States and the Soviet Union.

When the Soviet Union decided to alter course and break up into a series of independent countries the United States was left as sole superpower. China was rising, but hadn't yet achieved its potential. The Soviet Union was a mess, racked by economic collapse and social disintegration. The inmates could be exploited and complaints ignored.

Under these conditions it was natural for the USA government to assume it had 'won' something, and it acted accordingly. While previously coercive diplomacy was used by both sides, there was also respect on both sides. But once the Soviet Union was 'gone' and a new weak Russia emerged, the United States acted as if it ruled the world. And it did. Through rampant coercive diplomacy. The current Russian President once admitted that perhaps Russia, too, would have acted in a similar way in the same circumstances. It is human nature.

Despite USA government destruction of nuclear arms control mechanisms and place missiles right on the Russian Federation's border, by 2018 Russia managed to restore the balance of nuclear-military power. China, too, had become a formidable military force, with hypersonic missile technology and world beating economy. India, too is on the rise, and Iran can now impose unacceptable militarily costs to the USA in the Middle East.

The balance of power itself has become multipolar. In 2014 President Putin signaled to the west that the time has come for the west to abandon Alexander George's childish 'coercive diplomacy', grow up, return to adult diplomacy, and rationally reconstruct and adapt the mechanisms of checks and balances to bring them into line with new and emerging realities.

"We need to be frank in asking each other if we have a reliable safety net in place. Sadly, there is no guarantee and no certainty that the current system of global and regional security is able to protect us from upheavals. This system has become seriously weakened, fragmented and deformed. The international and regional political, economic, and cultural cooperation organisations are also going through difficult times.

Yes, many of the mechanisms we have for ensuring the world order were created quite a long time ago now, including and above all in the period immediately following World War II.

Let me stress that the solidity of the system created back then rested not only on the balance of power and the rights of the victor countries, but on the fact that this system’s ‘founding fathers’ had respect for each other, did not try to put the squeeze on others, but attempted to reach agreements.

The main thing is that this system needs to develop, and despite its various shortcomings, needs to at least be capable of keeping the world’s current problems within certain limits and regulating the intensity of the natural competition between countries.

It is my conviction that we could not take this mechanism of checks and balances that we built over the last decades, sometimes with such effort and difficulty, and simply tear it apart without building anything in its place.

Otherwise we would be left with no instruments other than brute force.

What we needed to do was to carry out a rational reconstruction and adapt it to the new realities in the system of international relations.

But the United States, having declared itself the winner of the Cold War...took steps that threw the system into sharp and deep imbalance.

The Cold War ended, but it did not end with the signing of a peace treaty with clear and transparent agreements on respecting existing rules or creating new rules and standards.

This created the impression that the so-called ‘victors’ in the Cold War had decided to pressure events and reshape the world to suit their own needs and interests. If the existing system of international relations, international law and the checks and balances in place got in the way of these aims, this system was declared worthless, outdated and in need of immediate demolition.

Pardon the analogy, but this is the way nouveaux riches behave when they suddenly end up with a great fortune, in this case, in the shape of world leadership and domination. Instead of managing their wealth wisely, for their own benefit too of course, I think they have committed many follies.

We have entered a period of differing interpretations and deliberate silences in world politics. International law has been forced to retreat over and over by the onslaught of legal nihilism.

Objectivity and justice have been sacrificed on the altar of political expediency.

Arbitrary interpretations and biased assessments have replaced legal norms.

At the same time, total control of the global mass media has made it possible when desired to portray white as black and black as white. 

In a situation where you had domination by one country and its allies, or its satellites rather, the search for global solutions often turned into an attempt to impose their own universal recipes.

This group’s ambitions grew so big that they started presenting the policies they put together in their corridors of power as the view of the entire international community. But this is not the case."
Vladimir Putin 24 October 2014

The origin of the coercive diplomacy strategy Edited 4 March 2024

In 1971, Alexander George, a professor of behavioural science at Stanford University, introduced the concept of "coercive diplomacy", in his book 'The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy'. This was followed in 1991 by 'Forceful persuasion: coercive diplomacy as an alternative to war'. His ideas and advice influenced a number of Presidents, and were in vogue in the period of the cold war, and have now become the manual for what the United States government conceives as 'diplomacy'.

"Coercive diplomacy is an attractive strategy because it offers the defender a chance to achieve reasonable objectives in a crisis with less cost, with much less - if any - bloodshed, with fewer political and psychological costs, and often with less risk of unwanted escalation than is true with traditional military strategy. A crisis resolved by means of coercive diplomacy is also less likely to contaminate future relations between the two sides than is a war."
Alexander George and William Simons 'The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy'

George frames coercive diplomacy as being used by a 'defender', but he uses that word in a special sense - that is, as a country (implicitly the USA) 'defending' the status quo. This implies any legal thing another country does in pursuit of its own citizens well-being that the US government decides it doesn't like, is, by this twisted bit of logic, an 'aggression'. According to US coercive 'logic' a country acting as an independent sovereign - pursuing it's own interests rather than abiding by the US 'rules' - must be coercively stopped from acting independently. It must be made dependent on USA rules, obedient, obeying USA rules and dictates slavishly - or else.

"The central task of coercive diplomacy...is to cause the adversary to expect sufficient costs and risks to cause him to stop what he is doing"
Alexander George and William Simons 'The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy'

George conceived of coercive diplomacy as composed of several possible strategies - it could use "rational persuasion", it could use "accommodation" (recognising another parties legitimate interests and not muddying the waters), or it could use coercive threats. The US objective is always the same, according to George - to 'encourage' the adversary to comply with American demands, or to agree to a compromise that suits America. George frames compromise as "work out an acceptable compromise". But the object of working anything out is compliance with that which suits the stronger partner.  Thus, coercive diplomacy is not an equal dialogue between parties. In reality, coercive diplomacy is generally an aggressive act lazily used, in place of the more tedious patient, reasoned diplomatic discourse - a process that can only work if is carried out respectfully, honestly, and where each sides legitimate interests are balanced (there are no 'winners' and 'losers', only useful results and concessions).

Today, George's conception of 'coercive diplomacy' has largely been stripped of even rationality, accommodation, and compromise. Threats have grown like a bloated cuckoo chick in a wren's nest. The cuckoo nestling grows faster, hogs the food, and when large enough, throws his nest-mates out of the nest.

George regarded coercive diplomacy as an attractive option, better than military action. He made the base assumption that the US politicians who routinely use coercive diplomacy against weaker opponent would not use toxic levels of coercive diplomacy against a major conventional and nuclear power.

George also realised that when a powerful country uses it against a weak country the stronger country might not take into account the moral determination of the weak country to defend its people and historic territory. A determined and resourceful weak country may simply refuse to bow down to the US government, almost regardless of the cost. Yemen is a case in point - as is Afghanistan.

"I will explain that American strategic planning documents confirm the possibility of a so-called preemptive strike at enemy missile systems.

We also know the main adversary of the United States and NATO. It is Russia.

NATO documents officially declare our country to be the main threat to Euro-Atlantic security.

Ukraine will serve as an advanced bridgehead for such a strike.

If our ancestors heard about this, they would probably simply not believe this. We do not want to believe this today either, but it is what it is. I would like people in Russia and Ukraine to understand this...

...I would like to be clear and straightforward: in the current circumstances, when our proposals for an equal dialogue on fundamental issues have actually remained unanswered by the United States and NATO, when the level of threats to our country has increased significantly, Russia has every right to respond in order to ensure its security. That is exactly what we will do.
Vladimir Putin 21 February 2022

George could not conceive of the US politicians attacking a powerful country and mistaking slowness of that country to retaliate as 'weakness'. Yet here we are. (Some retaliation is years in having its effect - and this will be the case with a turn to goods - based non-dollar currencies used in trade.)

He believed that coercive diplomacy is not just a means to obtain a political objective, but is also a psychological strategy to alter the present and future behaviour of officials of other countries. He firmly believed that is was necessary for diplomats and top leadership to understand the adversaries 'world view', what the political constraints and opportunities were in the operating environment of the adversary, and how the leaders of that country 'see things'. 

But the degree to which USA politicians have ever really understood Russia is moot. The reliability of the current 'experts' who explain these matters to the top politicians and diplomats has been called into question. Intelligence is supposed to provide input on Russia's capacity as a military-economic state, on the Russian peoples moral fibre, so to speak, their resolve, their will to resist, and the strength to which they hold on to values such as homeland, community, family, sacrifice. Judging by their actions, the USA has very low quality intelligence on these elements of Russia's being. Bad intelligence leads to bad decisions. Compounding this, the psychological inclinations of the current US President (Joseph Biden) may be dismissive of this central element of George's 'package'. In which case the American politicians will either hold false views about Russia (and China for that matter) or understand very little. In any case, it  should have been very clear that attempting to coerce Russia at all was a bad idea who repercussions would become worse with time.

'Don't do it' was simply not considered.

Their own disinterest in understanding Russia allows the US politicians to insolently escalate coercion until it has almost seamlessly become a war against Russia. In a frightening demonstration of the danger posed by the atrophied and sclerotic US political borg, in lock-step they lurch like zombies closer and closer to the edge of the precipice. Dragging the rest of the world with them.

George considered that the strength of the coercive measures an aggressor used was a reflection of the strength of the aggressors motives.

If that is the case then US government's very strong and very dangerous coercive measures against Russia suggest that something very important to the US government is at stake. What, then is at stake? Social stability might be half of the answer.

The rationale for using coercive diplomacy

1. Coerce the rest of the world to provide social stability in the USA

The US is deeply in debt, the dollar will likely fall in value as foreigners turn away from buying US debt, and US tangible goods exports over imports have a trade deficit of over a trillion dollars. About half a trillion represents the trade deficit with China and Europe. The USA needs Chinese strategic manufactures - rare metals, pharmaceuticals and so forth, but the USA doesn't really need Europe. The USA needs to buy time to build competitive manufacturing industries for export. It needs time to source strategic minerals from other countries than China. It needs to increase the cost structure for European industries so US manufacturers can compete on price, in spite of the distances shipped. It needs to substitute locally produced products for imported products. It time to lure European industries to re-locate to the USA.  All these measures create employment in the USA. But at the same time destroys employment in Europe.

Cutting Europe off from cheap Russian energy is the perfect way to raise the costs structure in Europe. The US government can, at the same time, promote European energy security through seaborne imports of natural gas and oil from distant sources in the Middle East and Africa. And in the case of gas, from USA. The US government-incited European economic 'sanctions' against Russia are the perfect tool (sabotage of the natural gas pipeline is icing on the cake). Europe now has a permanently high cost structure for its supplies of industrial energy.

2. Coerce Russia and China to agree to a US-centric lop-sided nuclear and hypersonic arms treaty

The second half of what is at stake for USA is nuclear annihilation.

The US government hoped to ring Russia with nuclear capable missiles and blackmail Russia into allowing the US to exploit Russian natural resources. That has failed.

Russia responded with world-beating hypersonic technology that allows Russia to launch a submarine attack on USA with unstoppable hypersonic missiles carrying either a nuclear or conventional warhead. Russian hypersonic cruise missiles launched by bombers and fighter-bombers within Russian airspace can reach much of continental United States. The US gambled on creating a permanent nuclear-tipped cruise missile and glide bomb threat on Russia's border, protected by an 'anti-missile shield' on both Europes eastern margin and South East Asia's western margin. Russia can probably shoot most of these down, but the experience of the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that a few will still get through.

A Russian nuclear response on USA territory would be instant and unstoppable.

The USA is desperate to sign an arms control treaty with Russia (and China) that covers this threat to the existence of the US 'continental island'. The US government well understands that Russia does not 'need' anything from the US.

The USA government could have used cooperative diplomacy to achieve nuclear arms control. The Russians had already said they were willing to work out US concerns about hypersonic weapons. But Russia can hardly be expected to help the US with the structure of its economic problem. Maybe it was opportunistic, but the US decided it could exploit the Ukrainian civil war to kill Russians, destroy the Russian economy, and promote civil unrest in Russia - at no real cost to the USA.

Coercive intimidation added 10 August 2024
Before coercive actions are taken, states often use threats to try to intimidate or deter a country from initiating something the menacing state considers 'harmful', or to stop a country from doing something that the threatening state 'doesn't like'. This is the "just try it and see what happens to you" of the schoolyard in the first case, and "if you keep doing that you are going to get it" in the second case. The principle of trying to change others behaviour with 'cheap' threats endures into adult life - although it can hardly be called mature adult behaviour.

It allows for the possibility to 'win without fighting', a highly desirable outcome.

"Coercive diplomacy emphasises the threats of punishment if the adversary does not comply with what is demanded."
Alexander George

The threat can take countless forms. The low end targets individuals whose work inconveniently exposes truths about a governments inept, corrosive, or illegal foreign policies. One recent example is the 7 August 2024 deceitful banality of US FBI agents 'investigating' Scott Ritter, under the affected and false pretext of being a foreign agent. Scott Ritter (long-time writer, journalist and commentator) expertly reports on, discusses and analyses Russian geopolitical actions, including the conflict in Ukraine and arms control, and his analysis of the available facts often coincides with Russian statements. More significantly, his analysis of current Israeli actions and attitudes are fiercely critical of the the Israeli government - at a time when the US government is fervently and loudly in support of the continued genocidally disproportionate bombing of the overwhelmingly innocent population of the Israeli open-air prison that is Gaza.

The implicit threat to Mr. Ritter is that if he doesn't stop working in this area (as it embarrasses the US government), fanciful charges will be laid against him, and he will be bankrupted  defending himself. More importantly, the time taken to prepare a defense will severely limit his ability to go about his normal work.

At the high end the chief diplomat (for example the President of the United States) openly threatens the head of another country - even to hint he would repeat the uniquely American implementation of a crime against humanity - the murder and maiming of a huge number men, women and children of a city using a nuclear bomb. President Donald Trump's remarks aimed at North Korea in 2017 are the outstanding example (although various Israeli politicians threats to explode one or more nuclear bombs on other countries if the USA doesn't give them what they want, or if they feel their statehood is threatened arguably trump Trump.)

The fact that in both of these examples the subject of the threat can't be intimidated into 'changing their behaviour' demonstrates an important point - don't attempt to intimidate a subject that is immune to threats. At best, the threatening party looks both weak and pathetic. At worst, the exact opposite happens - the subject is both empowered and unanticipated consequences the failed intimidator sitting bent over, head in hand, full of regret.

There are four broad forms of coercive threats designed to intimidate - unspoken but physically manifest; hinted at; ambiguous; and direct.

Which style is used, and when in a sequence of ever-escalating events, is a matter of judgement. A judgement sometimes easily made, sometimes finely judged (depending on many fast or slowly evolving factors of varying impact - from erosive drip to powerful waterfall).

The style and timing also reflects both the culture of a country and the wisdom of the leader.' Wisdom' subsumes the leaders personal intelligence, self control, analytical ability, ability to listen, and innate or learned ability to think strategically across many domains - social, military, economic, legal, organisational, relational. Of course, experience also comes into the equation that results in behaviours we call 'wise'. Objectively, Vladimir Putin fits the description of a 'wise' politician. His use of intimidatory threats is sparse, appropriate (last resort), predictable, enduring when it matters and cast aside when it no longer matters (strategic flexibility). His cultural background is that of the history of the Russian Federation, and as a result he is inclined to relentless diplomacy, with its often oblique and ambiguous language (a typically Russian style of diplomatic communication). Because intimidation is generally of the ambiguous style, the threats are very often missed by the media, and perhaps even by the 'analysts' in the west who feed information to their leadership.

Unspoken but physically manifest
These include patrols with air or marine military assets (fighter bombers, long range bombers, ships, submarines, drone-torpedoes) capable of delivering strategic strikes (conventional or nuclear) on command and control centers, military assets, and civilian infrastructure also used to support armed services.

Military exercises are also a 'show of force' designed to threaten and intimidate. They are particularly effective at a time of escalating tensions, and escalations in the use of proxy forces, such as the USA use of proxy forces in Ukraine and Israel.

Hinted at

"Two days ago I came across a study by a Lebanese economic expert who is interested in this field. He states that in the northern region [of Israel] there are chemical factories valued at $31 billion. As for technology factories...As you may know "Israel" is a global leader in the technology sector, with technology factories worth $76 billion. It also houses power plants worth 9.7 billion. Food production facilities, as the entire food supplier for the Zionist entity originates from the northern area, food production facilities worth 12 billion. It took 34 years to establish these industries. Yet all these factories could be obliterated in the matter of an hour, or even half an hour."
Hassan Nasrallah 7 August 2024 

Direct

"North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. He has been very threatening beyond a normal statement. And as I said, they will be met with fire, fury, and frankly, power, the likes of which this world has never seen before."
Donald Trump, President of the United States of America 8 August 2017

Of course two foes can trade direct threats in a verbal 'stare down'. In late October 2021 Hassan Nasrallah, after announcing Hezbollah had acquired "precision and non-precision rockets and weapons capabilities", that "no matter what you do to cut the route, the matter is over", and warned if Israel attacks Lebanon, it would meet a fate "it has never expected".

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in his turn, responded the next day that "If they confront us, they will suffer a crushing blow, the levels of which they cannot imagine". This is an echo of Donald Trump's threat a year previously, and it is a very clear direct threat of a use of a very heavy military response.

In 2024 Israel attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a series of 'tit for tat' relatively symmetrical strikes were the result. At 11 August 2024 it appeared neither side wished to escalate to full blown mutual missile exchanges. But on 28 September 2024 Israel killed Nasrallah, top level Hezbollah officials, and an Iranian general attending the meeting. Hezbollahs rhetoric to coerce Israel to stop the Gaza conflict and stop disproportionately larger retaliatory strikes against Lebanese people failed.

Degrees of coercion
The idea of 'coercive diplomacy', at least as conceived by Alexander George, was as a tool to persuade an opponent to either "stop or reverse an action". He explicitly stated that this is a defensive, not an offensive strategy. It is used only as a response to a current action or posture of an opponent who is trying to change "a status quo situation" to their own advantage.

Level one coercion Edited 17 June 2024
Stopping an adversary from following a course the USA doesn't like could be thought of as level one.

"We always want to make sure that any sanctions that we put in place can at some point - if behavior changes - be reversed in order to make sure that threat actor knows that once sanctions are put in place, the goal is behavioral change ultimately"
- US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo 17 April 2022

Level two coercion
Level two is forcing a country to not only stop it's chosen course of action, but reverse what has already been done.

Level three coercion Edited 29 May 2024
Level three is "a cessation of the opponent's hostile behavior through a demand for change in the composition of the adversary's government or in the nature of the regime". He implies that this offensive threat is still 'coercive diplomacy' even if limited military force is used, as long as that force is not based on a strategy to achieve purely strategic military goals, but to signal other political purposes, such as intention to escalate and change the nature of military engagement if necessary. (The danger, of course, is an escalatory slide to full-blown war.)

George is quite explicit about this. He says "an even more ambitious aim" is to stop "an opponent's hostile behavior" by, in effect, forcing a country to give up it's sovereignty and allow another country to dictate the makeup of their government, or even "change the nature of the regime", which is simply another way of saying 'overthrow the existing government' and replace it with a government picked by another country.

Fomenting coups and 'regime change' is a strategy used by the West all the time (and other countries from time to time). Recent examples include attempts to overthrow the government of Russia, Syria, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Iraq, Iran and Libya.

The technique involves 'grooming' a puppet by bringing them to the USA and feed them techniques to create a (tax free) 'non government organisation' to feed funds to the puppet personally and the puppet's 'grassroots' organisation. An organisation designed and supported by the west to manipulate the public, foment outrage using current concerns (real or manufactured), organise protests and so forth. The oranisations generally do at least some useful work - a technique to legitimise them in the eyes of outsiders. Often NGO's are used as recruitment vehicles for young people, many of whom are, at that time of life particularly passionate about unfairness and inequities, and so ripe to influence by those claiming to lead a movement to 'do something about it'. Protests are 'seeded' with trained members of the 'chosen ones' organisation in order to provoke confrontation and violence in order to create reactive outrage in 'the movement'.

The peak success of such devious and cynical techniques is when a countries President is a transplant from another country or a person outside the legitimate political process..

Hostile behaviour
Aggressive level three coercive diplomacy 'justifies' itself by labeling other state's actions as 'hostile behaviour'.  What does that mean? Outside warfare, the term 'hostile behavior' can mean anything someone wants it to mean.

In the case of the United States government, the 'hostile behavior' propaganda term means almost anything at all done by another country that just happens not to suit the USA. A bully needs an excuse. Whatever you do or say - or don't do - it will be twisted into grounds for bullying. Generally, 'hostile behaviour' is anything at all that denies the US government the chance to dominate/strong-arm/overthrow, or exploit another countries resources or businesses.

"Competitors now commonly seek adverse changes in the status quo using gray zone methods - coercive approaches that may fall below perceived thresholds for U.S. military action and across areas of responsibility of different parts of the U.S. Government."
United States of America National Defense Strategy, 2022

Adverse to who? The 'status quo' the USA wants to continue is very favorable to the USA, but not necessarily favorable to less powerful countries. You can't blame them for 'influencing' or overthrowing governments in other countries, as historically, at least, it has almost always brought advantageous results for the USA, either for business, or for the USA's security.

George modestly admits this "stretches coercive diplomacy to its outer limits" and "may blur the distinction between defensive and offensive use of threats". Normal people see this very clearly - they instantly recognise this as an offensive, not a defensive strategy.

Revisionists

Large parts of the world want true independence from the US and western vassalage. The 'status quo', which is western domination solely in the west's material interest - is being revised. The west ideological blatherers contemptuously call the countries that want freedom to make decisions solely in line with their own needs and interests as 'revisionists'.

'Revised' means looked at again. The non-western world has come to the point where it realises that a non-western power will soon be the leading economic power in the world, and a non-western power has become the most powerful defensive military power in the world. When looking again at the world, with a tectonic transformation in power, they are realising there is a much better path than subservience. And it is not the west that is offering it.

"The UN Charter states that the UN was founded on the principle of sovereign equality of states. This is the principle of paramount importance. Think back to various conflicts that have taken place since the creation of the UN in 1945. Just go over every one that comes to your mind.

There is not a single conflict in history with Western participation, either before or after the UN was created, in which the United States or their allies observed the principle of sovereign equality, despite the obligation to respect the sovereign equality of states being enshrined in the Charter."
Sergey Lavrov 16 February 2024

"...our main objective is to strengthen sovereignty. But it is a broad concept.

For example, strengthening sovereignty on the international stage involves enhancing our defence capability and security on the external contour.

It also includes strengthening social sovereignty, which means providing safeguards for the rights and freedoms of our citizens, as well as developing our political and parliamentary systems.

And lastly, it includes economic security and sovereignty, as well as technological sovereignty....Just like any other country, Russia must assert its financial, economic, and technological sovereignty in order to have a future. These are the main vectors from a conceptual standpoint."
Vladimir Putin 14 December 2023

Rein Muellerson: ...Andrei Kozyrev once told President Nixon that Russia had no national interests, only common human interests. Nixon shook his head.

Vladimir Putin: This shows that Nixon has a head, while Mr Kozyrev, unfortunately, has not. He has a cranium but no head as such.
19 October, 2017

"It’s astonishing to hear what European and especially German politicians are saying now about their duty. Take Germany. My counterpart Ms. Baerbock said – as quoted by various media outlets – that Germany simply had to supply Ukraine with weapons, considering its ‘historical responsibility.’ What does that mean? Does Germany recognise it as its duty and historical responsibility to support neo-Nazis? That’s a strange connection there. And Ursula von der Leyen said that today the EU and Ukraine are closer than ever. Meaning what? I guess it means that if you’re a Russophobe, a fascist or a neo-Nazi, you’re free to do anything you want. 

This is the reaction to Russia restoring justice in Ukraine, but has there been anything remotely like this when hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, Libyans and Syrians were dying at the hands of the US and their enlightened democratic allies who sent their troops to fight wars thousands of miles away from their own borders? 

So for the US, a small vial and a claim that it’s a national security threat was enough to justify the Iraq invasion. The US and Iraq, the US and Libya or Syria – they’re so far away, and yet the US feels it has the right to do these things. 

No international bodies condemned these instances of groundless military aggression as a violation of international law.

But look at the hysteria that started now as if on cue when it came to security threats to Russia that exist right at our borders."
Sergey Lavrov 2 March 2022

"Sunak, Scholz, Macron, Norwegen, Finnish, Polish, and other NATO bosses are harping on, “We must be ready for war against Russia.”

Even though Russia has many times underscored that conflict with NATO and EU member states was not in the plans, the dangerous babbling is still going on.

The reasons are obvious. It is necessary to distract voters to justify multibillion spending on the bothersome bandera Ukraine. Indeed, gigantic sums of money are being spent not on solving social tasks, but on war in a dying country alien to taxpayers, with the population that is scattered across Europe and is now terrorizing its people.

This is why the heads of these states are emphasizing it on a daily basis: it is imperative to get ready for war against Russia and keep providing aid to Ukraine, which is why it is necessary to produce more tanks, missiles, drones and other weapons.

But not all the European bosses are cynically lying to their citizens.

If – God forbid! – such a war breaks out, it won’t go according to the Special Military Operation scenario. It won’t be fought in trenches using artillery, armoured vehicles, drones and EW. (Electronic Warfare)

NATO is a huge military bloc, the total population of the Alliance member states is about 1 billion people, and their combined military budget can get as high as $1,5 trillion.

So, because our military capabilities are thus incomparable, we will simply be left with no choice.
The response will be asymmetrical.
To defend our country’s territorial integrity, ballistic and cruise missiles carrying special warheads will be put to use.
It is based on our military doctrine documents and is well known to all.
And this is exactly that very Apocalypse.
The end to everything.

This is why Western politicians must... telling the bitter truth to their voters, and stop taking them for brainless morons; to explain to them, what will really happen, and not to play the false mantra of getting ready for war against Russia over and over again.
Dmitry Medvedev 7 February 2024

"...they are again trying to blackmail us and are threatening us with sanctions, which, by the way, they will introduce no matter what as Russia continues to strengthen its sovereignty and its Armed Forces...

...they will never think twice before coming up with or just fabricating a pretext for yet another sanction attack regardless of the developments in Ukraine.

Their one and only goal is to hold back the development of Russia.

And they will keep doing so, just as they did before, even without any formal pretext just because we exist and will never compromise our sovereignty, national interests or values."
Vladimir Putin 21 February 2022

"...here is what I often think about when I meet with our African friends. At a certain period of time, during the Soviet era, I remember it well, an opinion was formed within the society that we were wasting money. Well, why do we spend money on Africa? Where is this Africa? We have a lot of our own problems.

And now, when I talk with our friends from Africa, I think with gratitude of the people who pursued such policy in Africa. They laid great foundations of durability, friendly relations with African countries, which… I do not know whether they expected such results themselves or not.

And this was done back then, naturally, and our attempts to work on the African track today are made in the interests of Russia, first and foremost.

There are many components here. The economic – let’s start with the economy. Such a huge potential and it is growing, at a very fast pace, at an exponential rate. There are already 1.5 billion people in Africa, and this is a very young population, growing very fast.

Everybody is well aware of the fact that the African continent is a depositary of mineral resources, and it is. Some Asian countries are actually converting their reserves into African mineral resources. You know, talented people, development is rapid.

Yes, the population is still poor, it is clear, we are all well aware of that, but the progress is rapid....The world is changing rapidly....So, of course, we should use everything that has been built up since Soviet times, these very good, trust-based relations, and work in a new way...

But now, you know, our African friends are not asking for any handouts....There has not been a single direct request: give us this, give us that – no, everyone is trying to find projects that would be mutually acceptable and interesting for both sides. This is a change, and such a serious one at that."
Vladimir Putin 29 July 2023

"We have absolutely no problem with the fact that these countries, including Saudi Arabia, have their own special interests, historical ties and allied relations with, among others, the United States. Why should this worry us? This does not mean that we are forbidden from working with Saudi Arabia; we will do so. As for Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, it is up to them to decide who they prefer to work with and on what issues....

...we have shared economic interests – importantly, interests of a global nature. Now, we have coordinated our position on the energy market with OPEC nations, above all with Saudi Arabia and the [oil] price has been stable, at over $50. We consider this a fair price; it is quite suitable for us. This is the result of joint efforts....

...The first opportunities have emerged for defense technology cooperation. Yes, there are multi-billion contracts with the United States. Very well! Do you know what our people say? “The chicken pecks one grain at a time.” Our ties will expand slowly and perhaps these contracts will grow. "
Vladimir Putin 19 October 2017

"Why stage a coup in Ukraine in 2014? That is what got everything going. Three foreign ministers from three European countries – Germany, France and Poland – came to Ukraine to attend, as guarantors, the ceremony for signing agreements between then President Yanukovych and the opposition.

I got a call from President Obama, “Let’s get things to quiet down there.” – “Let’s.” A day later, a coup took place. Why stage a coup at a time where the opposition could have come to power in a democratic way? Go to the polls and win… No, for whatever reason they had to stage a bloody coup. This is how it all started.

Now, they are saying: let’s forget it. No, we will always remember it, because this is the reason. The reason is the people who made this coup possible.

What were the guarantors who signed the agreement between President Yanukovych and the opposition supposed to do? There was a coup, whereas they guaranteed a peaceful process. What were they supposed to do?

They should have come and said something like “guys, that will not do. Get back on the normal political track and go to the polls.” Instead, they started handing out cookies in the squares and supporting the coup. What for?

That triggered the events in Crimea. They chose not to respect the choice made by the Crimean people, and the first volley of sanctions on Russia followed.

They carried out two, even three large-scale military operations in Donbass, shooting at civilians for eight long years with no one paying attention.

Kiev refused to comply with the Minsk agreements, and it was fine with some people. That is what caused the situation at hand. That is why it all happened.

In addition, they started creating an anti-Russian foothold in Ukraine. How about we create an anti-American foothold on the borders with the United States, say, in Mexico? Do you know what will happen next? For some reason, it never even occurs to anyone to do something like that in the United States. At some point, we even removed our military bases from Cuba. You see, no one is even looking at it and does not want to look.

Meanwhile, they are creating such threats for us.

We told them a hundred times, a thousand times: let’s talk. But no.

Why such a position? Where does this dismissive stance towards everyone, including us, come from? Does it come from the imaginary greatness that gradually developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union? We are aware of that.

With regard to what we are going to do next, we are going to protect the interests of the people for whom our soldiers are fighting there, getting wounded and dying. This is the only way. What is the point of these sacrifices otherwise?

We will support the residents of these territories. In the end, the future of the people who live there is up to them to decide. We will respect any choice they make."
Vladimir Putin 17 June 2022 


"The notion and the principle that it is the people of the country in question, particularly in a democracy, who should be able to decide their future and their association, not someone from the outside."
Anthony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, 8 December 2015

"The notion that it should not be permissible for one country to change by force another country’s borders"
Anthony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, 8 December 2015

"We are often told our actions are illegitimate, but when I ask, “Do you think everything you do is legitimate?” they say “yes”. Then, I have to recall the actions of the United States in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, where they either acted without any UN sanctions or completely distorted the content of such resolutions, as was the case with Libya. There, as you may know, the resolution only spoke of closing the airspace for government aircraft, while it all ended with bomb attacks and special forces land operations.

Our partners, especially in the United States, always clearly formulate their own geopolitical and state interests and follow them with persistence. Then, using the principle “You’re either with us or against us” they draw the whole world in. And those who do not join in get ‘beaten’ until they do.

Our approach is different. We proceed from the conviction that we always act legitimately. I have personally always been an advocate of acting in compliance with international law.

I would like to stress yet again that if we do make the decision, if I do decide to use the Armed Forces, this will be a legitimate decision in full compliance with both general norms of international law, since we have the appeal of the legitimate President [referring to Ukrainian President Yanukovych deposed in the 2014 coup], and with our commitments, which in this case coincide with our interests to protect the people with whom we have close historical, cultural and economic ties.

Protecting these people is in our national interests. This is a humanitarian mission. We do not intend to subjugate anyone or to dictate to anyone. However, we cannot remain indifferent if we see that they are being persecuted, destroyed and humiliated. However, I sincerely hope it never gets to that.
Vladimir Putin 4 March 2014

"As we know, it has already been stated today that Ukraine intends to create its own nuclear weapons, and this is not just bragging. Ukraine has the nuclear technologies created back in the Soviet times and delivery vehicles for such weapons, including aircraft, as well as the Soviet-designed Tochka-U precision tactical missiles with a range of over 100 kilometres. But they can do more; it is only a matter of time. They have had the groundwork for this since the Soviet era.

In other words, acquiring tactical nuclear weapons will be much easier for Ukraine than for some other states I am not going to mention here, which are conducting such research, especially if Kiev receives foreign technological support. We cannot rule this out either.

If Ukraine acquires weapons of mass destruction, the situation in the world and in Europe will drastically change, especially for us, for Russia.

We cannot but react to this real danger, all the more so since, let me repeat, Ukraine’s Western patrons may help it acquire these weapons to create yet another threat to our country.

We are seeing how persistently the Kiev regime is being pumped with arms. Since 2014, the United States alone has spent billions of dollars for this purpose, including supplies of arms and equipment and training of specialists. In the last few months, there has been a constant flow of Western weapons to Ukraine, ostentatiously, with the entire world watching. Foreign advisors supervise the activities of Ukraine’s armed forces and special services and we are well aware of this.

Over the past few years, military contingents of NATO countries have been almost constantly present on Ukrainian territory under the pretext of exercises.

The Ukrainian troop control system has already been integrated into NATO. This means that NATO headquarters can issue direct commands to the Ukrainian armed forces, even to their separate units and squads.

The United States and NATO have started an impudent development of Ukrainian territory as a theatre of potential military operations.

Their regular joint exercises are obviously anti-Russian. Last year alone, over 23,000 troops and more than a thousand units of hardware were involved.

A law has already been adopted that allows foreign troops to come to Ukraine in 2022 to take part in multinational drills. Understandably, these are primarily NATO troops. This year, at least ten of these joint drills are planned.

Obviously, such undertakings are designed to be a cover-up for a rapid buildup of the NATO military group on Ukrainian territory.

This is all the more so since the network of airfields upgraded with US help in Borispol, Ivano-Frankovsk, Chuguyev and Odessa, to name a few, is capable of transferring army units in a very short time. Ukraine’s airspace is open to flights by US strategic and reconnaissance aircraft and drones that conduct surveillance over Russian territory.

I will add that the US-built Maritime Operations Centre in Ochakov makes it possible to support activity by NATO warships, including the use of precision weapons, against the Russian Black Sea Fleet and our infrastructure on the entire Black Sea Coast.

At one time, the United States intended to build similar facilities in Crimea as well but the Crimeans and residents of Sevastopol wrecked these plans. We will always remember this...

.... the Alliance, its military infrastructure has reached Russia’s borders. This is one of the key causes of the European security crisis; it has had the most negative impact on the entire system of international relations and led to the loss of mutual trust.

The situation continues to deteriorate, including in the strategic area.

Thus, positioning areas for interceptor missiles are being established in Romania and Poland as part of the US project to create a global missile defence system. It is common knowledge that the launchers deployed there can be used for Tomahawk cruise missiles – offensive strike systems.

In addition, the United States is developing its all-purpose Standard Missile-6, which can provide air and missile defence, as well as strike ground and surface targets. In other words, the allegedly defensive US missile defence system is developing and expanding its new offensive capabilities.

The information we have gives us good reason to believe that Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the subsequent deployment of NATO facilities has already been decided and is only a matter of time.

We clearly understand that given this scenario, the level of military threats to Russia will increase dramatically, several times over. And I would like to emphasise at this point that the risk of a sudden strike at our country will multiply.

I will explain that American strategic planning documents confirm the possibility of a so-called preemptive strike at enemy missile systems.

We also know the main adversary of the United States and NATO. It is Russia.

...Ukraine will serve as an advanced bridgehead for such a strike. If our ancestors heard about this, they would probably simply not believe this. We do not want to believe this today either, but it is what it is. I would like people in Russia and Ukraine to understand this.

Many Ukrainian airfields are located not far from our borders.

NATO’s tactical aviation deployed there, including precision weapon carriers, will be capable of striking at our territory to the depth of the Volgograd-Kazan-Samara-Astrakhan line.

The deployment of reconnaissance radars on Ukrainian territory will allow NATO to tightly control Russia’s airspace up to the Urals.

Finally, after the US destroyed the INF Treaty, the Pentagon has been openly developing many land-based attack weapons, including ballistic missiles that are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 5,500 km. If deployed in Ukraine, such systems will be able to hit targets in Russia’s entire European part.

The flying time of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Moscow will be less than 35 minutes;

ballistic missiles from Kharkov will take seven to eight minutes;

and hypersonic assault weapons, four to five minutes.

It is like a knife to the throat.

I have no doubt that they hope to carry out these plans, as they did many times in the past, expanding NATO eastward, moving their military infrastructure to Russian borders and fully ignoring our concerns, protests and warnings.

Excuse me, but they simply did not care at all about such things and did whatever they deemed necessary. Of course, they are going to behave in the same way in the future, following a well-known proverb: “The dogs bark but the caravan goes on.”

Let me say right away – we do not accept this behaviour and will never accept it.

That said, Russia has always advocated the resolution of the most complicated problems by political and diplomatic means, at the negotiating table.

We are well aware of our enormous responsibility when it comes to regional and global stability. Back in 2008, Russia put forth an initiative to conclude a European Security Treaty under which not a single Euro-Atlantic state or international organisation could strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others.

However, our proposal was rejected right off the bat on the pretext that Russia should not be allowed to put limits on NATO activities.

Furthermore, it was made explicitly clear to us that only NATO members can have legally binding security guarantees.

Last December, we handed over to our Western partners a draft treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on security guarantees, as well as a draft agreement on measures to ensure the security of the Russian Federation and NATO member states.

The United States and NATO responded with general statements. There were kernels of rationality in them as well, but they concerned matters of secondary importance and it all looked like an attempt to drag the issue out and to lead the discussion astray.

We responded to this accordingly and pointed out that we were ready to follow the path of negotiations, provided, however, that all issues are considered as a package that includes Russia’s core proposals which contain three key points.

First, to prevent further NATO expansion.

Second, to have the Alliance refrain from deploying assault weapon systems on Russian borders.

And finally, rolling back the bloc's military capability and infrastructure in Europe to where they were in 1997, when the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed.

These principled proposals of ours have been ignored. To reiterate, our Western partners have once again vocalised the all-too-familiar formulas that each state is entitled to freely choose ways to ensure its security or to join any military union or alliance. 

I would like to be clear and straightforward: in the current circumstances,
when our proposals for an equal dialogue on fundamental issues have actually remained unanswered by the United States and NATO,
when the level of threats to our country has increased significantly,

Russia has every right to respond in order to ensure its security.

That is exactly what we will do."

Vladimir Putin 21 February 2022

• The tone and intent of conversations. Whether open and honest or duplicitous and deceptive.
• The policy behind economic interests - fair bargaining, win:win, or one side, colonial, and exploitative.
• The human relations - whether respectful and honest, or rude, boorish, petulant, hectoring, patronising and aggressive.

"No nation, no matter how powerful, can organize the international system by itself; over an historical period it is beyond the psychological and political capacity of even the most dominant state.

The goal of U.S. foreign policy must be to turn dominant power into shared responsibility--to conduct policy...as if the international order were composed of many centers of power, even while we are aware of our strategic pre-eminence.

It implies the need for a style of consultation less focused on imposing immediate policy prescriptions than achieving a common definition of long-range purposes.

The challenge for America is to reconcile consultation with vast power.

The question for Europe is whether it views Atlantic relations as a partnership or as part of an international system of multipolarity very similar to pre-World War I Europe, in which major power centers engaged in shifting coalitions to maximize their advantage from case to case. That system broke down in the early 20th century; its 21st-century version is likely to be even less successful."
Henry Kissenger 8 November 2004  

"We have to accept the existence of new organizations, new formats, new structures like BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, ASEAN, African Union, and many subregional organizations in Africa, CELAC and subregional groups in Latin America. They are going to be the bricks of the new polycentric world. This must be recognized as an objective course of history and this must be respected. This is something which we actually miss when we analyse the modern West diplomacy."
Sergey Lavrov 10 December 2023

"The new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said in his remarks at the presentation of the new government that the world will no longer be governed by two powers but by many influential countries. This amounts to the recognition of multipolarity, which has two sides to it. On the one hand, many critics of the polycentric world argue that multipolarity means chaos. Everyone will be fending for themselves. The number of major players will increase. They will elbow each other for space, feeling constrained, and the world will become more chaotic, they say.

Our position is that multilateralism is objective reality. The rise of China as a leading global economy is imminent. India is developing rapidly. The Asia-Pacific region is becoming a growth driver, replacing the Euro-Atlantic region in this capacity. Latin America wants to determine its identity. This is evident from the recent initiatives advanced by the President of Mexico. Africa is reinforcing its national awareness and a desire to put forth its identity in its relations with the other countries, which have an interest in its huge natural wealth.

The goal is not to pit countries against each other in this highly competitive environment but to try to streamline this erratic random movement."
Sergey Lavrov 14 December 2021

"This modern Western liberalism, in my view, has degenerated into extreme intolerance and aggression towards any alternative or sovereign and independent thought. Today, it even seeks to justify neo-Nazism, terrorism, racism, and even the mass genocide of civilians."
Vladimir Putin 7 November 2024

"The most harmful and destructive attitude that we see in the modern world is supreme arrogance, which translates into a desire to condescendingly lecture others, endlessly and obsessively. Russia has never done this. This is not who or what we are. We can see that our approach is productive.

Historical experience irrefutably shows that inequality – in society, in government or in the international arena – always has harmful consequences...

...To build normal relationships, above all, one needs to listen to the other party and try to understand their logic and cultural background, rather than expecting them to think and act the way you think they should based on your beliefs about them.

Otherwise, communication turns into an exchange of clichés and flinging labels, and politics devolves into a conversation of the deaf...

...It should be remembered that everyone is equal, meaning that everyone is entitled to have their own vision, which is no better or worse than others – it is just different, and everyone needs to sincerely respect that. Acknowledging this can pave the way for mutual understanding of interests, mutual respect and empathy, that is, the ability to show compassion, to relate to others’ problems, and the ability to consider differing opinions or arguments.

This requires not only listening, but also altering behaviour and policies accordingly.

Listening and considering does not mean accepting or agreeing, not at all. This simply means recognising the other party’s right to their own worldview.

In fact, this is the first necessary step towards harmonising different mindsets. Difference and diversity must be viewed as wealth and opportunities, not as reasons for conflict. This, too, reflects the dialectics of history."
Vladimir Putin 7 November 2024

"Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev talked over the phone with his US counterpart, who produced their regular narrative (as the current phrase goes) to the effect that they were concerned over Russia “meddling” in the affairs of Africa, Latin America, and so on. Mr Patrushev replied that we had absolutely transparent ties with those countries.

Certainly, we maintained military-technical cooperation, but it did not violate any international obligations. 

But the Americans themselves almost openly say that they dictate to other countries what to do and make no bones about it. ....

So much for their philosophy."
Sergey Lavrov 28 June 2023

"This intellectual work and the constant focus on it are particularly important today when the world is undergoing tectonic shifts without exaggeration. They are happening very quickly. We must monitor them and try to understand where they are headed.

Their common vector points to the need to consolidate multilateral relations and a polycentric international order. Its foundations are taking shape today. No doubt, this will be a long period historically, but it is already in full swing. New centres of economic growth, financial power and political influence are emerging.

The GDP of the Asian-Pacific Region (APR) by purchasing power parity has more than doubled in the past 20 years – from 15.9 percent to 37.7 percent of the global total.

At the same time, it is clear that the Western liberal development model that, among other things, implied ceding part of national sovereignty (it is in this vein that our Western colleagues planned what they called “globalisation”) is losing its appeal and has long ceased to be a model to follow. Moreover, even many people in the West are skeptical about it – you can see many examples of this.

Clearly, multipolarity and the emergence of new centres of power call for a search for a balance of interests and compromises to maintain stability in the world.

Here, of course, diplomacy should play a leading role, especially since we have a backlog of problems which require generally acceptable solutions, including regional conflicts, international terrorism, food security, and the environment.

So, we operate on the premise that we can reach agreements only through diplomatic efforts.

Only solutions that enjoy the support of everyone can be sustainable.

Unfortunately, our Western partners led by the United States are not willing to agree on common approaches to resolving problems. Washington and its allies are trying to impose their own approaches
.
Their behavior is clearly based on a desire to preserve their centuries-old domination in international affairs despite the objective trends toward a polycentric international order.

This runs contrary to the fact that purely economically and financially, the United States and its closest allies can no longer single-handedly resolve all issues in the global economy and world affairs.

Moreover, various methods of blackmail, coercive, economic, and informational pressure are used in order to artificially retain their dominance and to regain their undisputed positions.

They are not above overt, blatant interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, such as Venezuela. Without hesitating, they publicly threaten Cuba and Nicaragua with the same scenarios. These are the most recent and odious examples."
Sergey Lavrov 12 April 2019


"We support a truly democratic and fair, multipolar world order based on the fundamental principles of the UN Charter.

Proof of this is not only our statements in response to the “nonsense” that we hear from Brussels, but also the doctrinal documents approved many years ago.

This is our principled position – worked out, approved, declared and implemented for many years. We believe that interaction between global players should rely on the principles of equality and consideration for each other’s interests."
Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, 01 April, 2021 

"...3) Take note of what was stated in the speech of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, on 19 November 2023, about international transformations and the need for a multilateral and multipolar international system, respect for the rules of international law, and the importance of formulating innovative approaches, in a way that enhances the effectiveness of international institutions, emphasizes achieving justice and balance, and ending the policy of double standards and selectivity..

5) Stress the importance of concerted international and regional efforts to find political solutions to regional crises and issues in accordance with all UN and international legitimacy resolutions and relevant conventions and references, and emphasize, in this context, the necessity of enhancing the security of the States and respect their sovereignty over their lands and natural resources, and the importance of cessation of hostilities. Promote opportunities for political solution and reject foreign interference in the internal affairs of the States, and support efforts of the United Nations and the League of Arab States in this regard.

6) Strongly condemn Israel’s ongoing and escalating aggressive war against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, targeting civilians and the destruction of residential neighbourhoods, hospitals, schools, mosques, churches, infrastructure and United Nations facilities, as well as all Israeli acts subjecting the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip to a blockade that included cutting off all means of life, including water, electricity, food, medicine, and fuel, which constitutes grave violations under the International Humanitarian Law. Reject any justification of such war, including describing it as self-defense. Warn of the gravity of Israel’s intentions, as the occupying power, to commit forcible displacement of the Palestinian people outside the occupied Palestinian territory. Condemn the killing of Palestinian civilians, incursions, arrests, and settlers’ violence in the occupied West Bank.

7) Call on the implementation of the UN General Assembly resolution A/ES-10/L.27 (2023) that demands an immediate humanitarian ceasefire and that all parties comply with their obligations under International Law, including International Humanitarian Law, notably with regard to the protection of civilians, especially children.

8) Demand to implement UNSC Resolution 2712 (2023) and UNGA Resolution A/ES-10/21 (2023). Underscore the unacceptability of blocking UNSC resolutions imposing an immediate ceasefire, especially taking note of the letter dated 6 December 2023 of the UN Secretary-General under Article 99 of the Charter of the United Nations, addressed to the President of the Security Council...

9) Emphasize the need to provide immediate international protection to the Palestinian people according to the relevant United Nations resolutions, and the need to pursue accountability for Israeli grave violations of the rights of the Palestinian people and stress in this regard the importance of ensuring independent and transparent investigations in accordance with international standards.

10) Emphasize that peace and regional stability will only be achieved by ending the Israeli occupation and giving the Palestinian people their full rights. Call for the convening of an international peace conference, as soon as possible, from which a credible peace process will be launched on the basis of international law, international legitimacy resolutions, the principle of land for peace, and the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, with all its elements and priorities, within a specified time frame and with international guarantees, leading to an end to Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territory occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem, the Syrian Golan and the rest of the occupied Lebanese territories, and personifying the independence of the fully sovereign independent State of Palestine along the 4 June 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and restoring the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people, including their right to self-determination, and the right of return and compensation for Palestinian refugees according to the United Nations General Assembly Resolution No. 194 (1948), and support the State of Palestine in obtaining full membership in the United Nations.

12) Condemn the illegal Israeli settlement policy, the violence of Israeli settlers against Palestinian citizens, and emphasize on the implementation of Security Council Resolution No. 2334 (2016), which affirmed that Israeli settlement constitutes a flagrant violation of international law and an obstacle to peace and a two-state solution. Call on Israel to immediately and completely stop all settlement activities in the Palestinian and Arab territories occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem, and in the Syrian Golan.

13)... Call upon all States not to establish diplomatic missions in the city of Jerusalem, in compliance with the relevant United Nations resolutions, including Security Council Resolutions No. 476 & 478 (1980) and General Assembly Resolution A/RES/ES-10/19 (2017).

"We are at an inflection point in world history....we face enormous challenges to the systems our forebearers fought so hard to create. The decisions we make now will determine our course for generations to come. The United States has a duty to lead in this critical moment."
Joseph Biden 23 October 2023

"We were in a post-war period for 50 years where it worked pretty damn well, but that’s sort of run out of steam.  Sort of run out of steam.  It needs a new world order in a sense, like that was a world order....I think we have a real opportunity to unite the world in a way it hasn’t been in a long time.  And enhance the prospect of peace, not diminish the prospect of peace."

"Western countries’ brazen attempts to bring the Secretariats of the UN and other international organisations under their control are a threat to the multilateral system.

The West has always enjoyed a quantitative advantage in terms of personnel, but until recently the Secretariat tried to remain neutral.

Today, this imbalance has become chronic while Secretariat employees increasingly allow themselves politically-driven behaviour that is unbecoming of international office holders. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres must ensure that his staff meets impartiality standards in keeping with Article 100 of the UN Charter.

We also call on the Secretariat’s senior officials to be guided by the need to help member countries find ways to reach consensus and a balance of interests, rather than playing into the hands of neoliberal concepts.

Otherwise, instead of a multilateral agenda, we will see a widening gap between the “golden billion” countries and the Global Majority."
Sergey Lavrov 5 May 2023 


"The United States is trying to prevent the democratic transition in international relations. This is an obvious fact. In this context, Washington and its allies have become increasingly open and unscrupulous in their attempts to exploit the secretariats of international organisations to pull through resolutions creating single-track mechanisms largely subjected to the Western agenda while bypassing the established procedures.

By doing so they acquire or claim to acquire the right to hold anyone accountable that the United States and its allies view as undesirable, even though these resolutions are adopted without consensus and do not confer any mandate on them.

This trend has become especially apparent in humanitarian affairs with the West seeking to pitch the public opinion against those who disobey. In this situation, ensuring strict and full compliance with the UN Charter by the states, as well as the secretariats of international organisations takes on a special sense of urgency.

In accordance with Article 100 of the Charter, the UN Secretariat must act impartially and cannot receive instructions from any government. We are aware of multiple instances where this requirement was blatantly violated."
Sergey Lavrov 30 June 2023


"It is very unfortunate but the Western employees in the secretariats of international agencies that are designed to be neutral and unbiased are increasingly privatising them. This happens with these agencies across all sectors, including forensics, law enforcement, sports, culture – you name it.

We are seeing the same situation with the UN. It has the Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions. They emphasised in their latest annual report that domination of Westerners in the structures of the Secretariat is unacceptable. It is necessary to counter this trend rather than just take into consideration. This is what we are doing."
Sergey Lavrov 28 March 2024

"Our Western colleagues have long since become uncomfortable with holding talks in universal formats, such as the UN.

To provide an ideological basis for their policy of undermining multilateralism, the theme of united “democracies” countering “autocracies” has been put into circulation.

In addition to “summits for democracy”, the members of which are designated by the self-proclaimed hegemon, other “clubs of the chosen ones” are being created that operate in circumvention of the UN.

Summits for Democracy, the Alliance for Multilateralism, the Global Partnership for Artificial Intelligence, the Global Media Freedom Coalition and the Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyberspace – these and other non-inclusive projects have been designed to undermine talks held under the auspices of the UN on relevant issues, and to impose non-consensual concepts and decisions that benefit the collective West. 

First, they agree on something secretly as a small group and then present their agreements as “the position of the international community.”

Let’s face it: no one entrusted the Western minority to speak on behalf of all humankind.

They must behave decently and respect all international community members without exception.

By imposing a “rules-based order,” its masterminds haughtily reject the key principle underlying the UN Charter, which is the sovereign equality of states.

The “proud” statement by the head of the EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, that Europe is a “garden” and the rest of the world is a “jungle” personifies their worldview of being exceptional.

I will also quote the NATO-EU Joint Statement of January 10, 2023 which states:
“The united West will use all the economic, financial, political, and military tools available to NATO and the EU to ensure the interests of our one billion.”
Sergey Lavrov 5 May 2023 

"Aggressive attempts were made to oust Russia from UNESCO’s leading and auxiliary bodies. At times even the most unseemly methods were used for this purpose, up to and including financial blackmail of the countries of the Global East and South. In these conditions, our country was not re-elected to the Executive Board and a number of other bodies of UNESCO despite support from more than a half of its members."
Sergey Lavrov 22 December 2023

"...notorious double standards are reflected in regular anti-Russia resolutions on Crimea and Ukraine. The West is pushing through these resolutions by twisting the arms of the developing nations. These resolutions go beyond UNESCO’s mandate. It has no competence in this area. Attempts to defame Russia for “destroying Ukraine’s cultural heritage" without citing any evidence are in the same category. Such evidence simply does not exist. Nor does UNESCO have any right to attribute guilt. UNESCO Secretariat employees admitted it themselves in private conversations...

...We are deeply concerned over the increasing disregard for UNESCO’s procedural rules and Charter, which are arbitrarily interpreted to carry out political orders. This is exactly how the return of the US to UNESCO was arranged (in a scandalous way) – there were no guarantees of Washington’s intentions to fulfil its commitments."
Sergey Lavrov 22 December 2023

"...we still haven’t heard any statement condemning the act of terror at the Moscow Kremlin, a world heritage site.

Nor has UNESCO Secretary-General Audrey Azoulay from France denounced the murder of Russian journalists although this is her direct mandate.

It is telling that many Western countries have remained indifferent to the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and even opposed a relevant resolution at the recent session of the General Conference."

Bloc logic and divisive friend-or-foe thinking is gaining ground in an organisation that was initially supposed to unite nations in moral and intellectual solidarity."
Sergey Lavrov 22 December 2023 

"It is obvious to everyone that the dollar is being used or could potentially be used as a weapon to achieve political objectives. Dollar-denominated grants issued by international financial institutions are being actively used as an instrument of coercion."
Sergey Lavrov 31 January 2024

"Instead of a UN-centred architecture, narrow bloc alliances, closed clubs, behind-the-scenes “best practices”, allegedly “reliable scientific data”, and pseudo-democratic ‘values’ are being promoted. The world is artificially divided into friends and foes, the “garden” and the “jungle”. It is unclear on what basis countries are suddenly declared “democracies” or “dictatorships”.

This is what the infamous “rules” the West imposes instead of the international law, appear in reality. No one has ever seen them, but at the time the ex American President Barack Obama said that they will be drawn up “without Russia and China”, that is, only by the insiders, on the basis of adherence to the so-called “values”.

The basis of such policy is neo-colonialism, the desire to achieve dominance in political, economic and humanitarian spheres under the cover of “beautiful” slogans."
Sergey Lavrov 21 February 2024 

"the US-led collective West is doing everything in its power to preserve its domination, or whatever is left of it, which they have enjoyed for 500 years of human history. That domination rests on colonial wars, the exploitation of nations, and many other elements. It can be described as the privileged position of the “golden minority.”  It is also known as the golden billion, yet it is a minority. The West is trying to preserve this status and to force all others, which we describe as the Global Majority now, to recognise its “privileges.”

They are doing this by promoting their own “rules” as the basis of the world order, something which has become a byword. It means that the West will make decisions and all the others must implement them in a way that suits the West at the given moment. It concerns finance, technology, ideology and international politics."
Sergey Lavrov 31 January 2024 

"Friends, our fight for sovereignty and justice is, without exaggeration, one of national liberation, because we are upholding the security and well-being of our people, and our supreme historical right to be Russia – a strong independent power, a civilisation state.

It is our country, it is the Russian world that has blocked the way of those who aspired to world domination and exceptionalism, as it has happened many times in history.

We are now fighting not just for Russia's freedom but for the freedom of the whole world. We can frankly say that the dictatorship of one hegemon is becoming decrepit. We see it, and everyone sees it now. It is getting out of control and is simply dangerous for others. This is now clear to the global majority. But again, it is our country that is now at the forefront of building a fairer world order. And I would like to stress this: without a sovereign and strong Russia, no lasting and stable international system is possible."
Vladimir Putin 28 November 2023

"I remind you that in 2012, the Obama administration made a futile attempt to ratify the 1982 Convention. Republicans in the US Senate buried the idea, arguing that the Convention violated US national sovereignty...after this episode, the Senate began to be called the 'graveyard of international treaties'"
Deputy Speaker of Russia's Federation Council, Konstantin Kosachev, 25 December 2023

"...despite its non-participation in the proceedings, China is a Party to the arbitration and is bound under international law by any awards rendered by the Tribunal.

In line with its duties under Annex VII to the Convention, in the circumstances of China’s non-participation, the Tribunal has taken steps to ensure procedural fairness to both Parties without compromising the efficiency of the proceedings. The Tribunal has also taken steps to ascertain China’s position on the issues for decision, based on statements made by Chinese officials publicly and in communications to the members of the Tribunal....

...In its Award on Jurisdiction, the Tribunal noted that “both the Philippines and China are parties to the Convention” and that the provisions for the settlement of disputes, including through arbitration, form an integral part of the Convention. Although the Convention specifies certain limitations and exceptions to the subject matter of the disputes that may be submitted to compulsory settlement, it does not permit other reservations, and a State may not except itself generally from the Convention’s mechanism for the resolution of disputes."
The South China Sea Arbitration Award of 12 July 2016

Moral coercion
A coercive demand generally starts off with a 'moral' argument - 'defending' the rights of some country, whether the supposed 'right' to a certain system of vote-based government, the right to justice, religous freedom, women's rights, children's rights, sexual preference rights and so forth. Most of these rights are already enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), which most countries have signed up to, and which most countries of the world ignore whenever it suits them. (In regard to the last point, the most important human right is the right to life itself - regularly ignored by the USA government as it either uses, enables, or incites military violence in illegally occupied territories, illegally occupied states, and against sovereign states alike.)

The Premable to the 30 articles (rights) reads:

"Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world,

Whereas disregard and contempt for human rights have resulted in barbarous acts which have outraged the conscience of mankind, and the advent of a world in which human beings shall enjoy freedom of speech and belief and freedom from fear and want has been proclaimed as the highest aspiration of the common people,

Whereas it is essential, if man is not to be compelled to have recourse, as a last resort, to rebellion against tyranny and oppression, that human rights should be protected by the rule of law,

Whereas it is essential to promote the development of friendly relations between nations,

Whereas the peoples of the United Nations have in the Charter reaffirmed their faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person and in the equal rights of men and women and have determined to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom,

Whereas Member States have pledged themselves to achieve, in co-operation with the United Nations, the promotion of universal respect for and observance of human rights and fundamental freedoms,

Whereas a common understanding of these rights and freedoms is of the greatest importance for the full realization of this pledge,

Now, therefore,

The General Assembly,

Proclaims this Universal Declaration of Human Rights as a common standard of achievement for all peoples and all nations, to the end that every individual and every organ of society, keeping this Declaration constantly in mind, shall strive by teaching and education to promote respect for these rights and freedoms and by progressive measures, national and international, to secure their universal and effective recognition and observance, both among the peoples of Member States themselves and among the peoples of territories under their jurisdiction."

The UDHR articles are used as a 'pick list' of excuses to put a thin veneer of 'morality' over their various schemes to 'divide and rule' around the world.

Russia used a legal argument (based on self defense) for it's right to enter a conflict in Ukraine. This argument is based on genuine military risk to the Russian Federation, both from an extremely hostile Ukraine capable of constructing a nuclear weapons, and from NATO nuclear cruise missiles minutes from Moscow. The USA government used the argument of 'self defense' to destroy Iraq. This was nonsensical, a premises with no basis in fact. The western world applied economic sanctions to moralistically 'punish' Russia for a genuine self defense. The world did precisely nothing to punish the USA for its aggression in Iraq.

Moral outrage is used by Russia additionally to justify its conflict with Ukraine. Ukraine designated the entire civilian population of Eastern Ukraine as 'terrorists', because most of those people refused to accept the banning of the Russian language, suppression of Russian language media, among other things. Ukraine then attacked the 'armed rebels' or 'terrorists' (depending on your point of view) and fired on civilian areas, killing and maiming civilians, including, of course, women and children. The world said nothing. Russia organised a ceasefire, an agreement to pull heavy weapons back, a negotiated settlement. The west destroyed it, deliberately, and with malicious intent.

Israel attacked the 'armed rebels' or 'terrorists' (depending on your point of view) in the Israeli occupied Gaza territory. It disproportionately attacked civilians in an area whose population was made up of the young. Israel designated all civilians as terrorists or terrorist sympathisers on the basis the population of Gaza had voted for Hamas as municipal representatives in 2006. Hamas has prevented elections ever since that time. In other words, no one knows if Hamas has any political support there or not. Anyone under the age of 35 in Gaza has never voted for anyone, let alone Hamas. Around 10,000 people, over 4,000 of whom were children, women, youth, have been killed there in a 6 day period. The world is in an uproar. In the 19 month period of the Ukraine conflict, there were around 10,000 civilian casualties - in the whole of Ukraine, the new (now Russian) territories, the disputed battle zone territories, and within the Russian federation. Not much said.

In the light of the obvious hypocrisy, the west's attempt at moral coercion simply rebounds back on it. People hate hypocrisy, as it is a form of deception, and they are the target.

In the recent example of the US - enabled Israeli crimes against humanity in Gaza, Hezbollah, which has been dragged, probably unwillingly, into this conflict to an extent, also uses moral coercion. But even as it does so, Hezbollah recognises that it will fall on deaf ears - even the call for sanctions is half-hearted. Hope doesn't carry much weight. And when morality conflicts with the wests so-called interests, morality is conveniently pushed aside.

"...and if we are to look for a fully legitimate, lawful battle from the legal, ethical, or religous perspectives, we cannot find one but that battle fighting against the Zionist occupiers. This is a seamless battle at the human, ethical, or religious levels. It is the most evident, the most honest, and the most noble to the service of the cause of God...

...They are wreaking killing among civilian Palestinians in Gaza. Most of those killed are women and children. The majority of the victim are civilians. Churches, mosques, school buildings, even hospitals are not spared. Everything is legitimized. Entire neighborhoods are wiped out. School buildings, places of worship. And the whole world is standing by watching....

We have witnessed victims, men, and women,innocent civilians. The children of Gaza have unmasked the truth of this barbaric regime backed by the Western media, who are trying to convince our peoples to remain silent...

this also reveals the direct responsibility and liability of the United States. Also the US hypocrisy. From day one Biden claims to have spoken to the Israelis about human humanitarian issues. Civilians. All false claims. For a month Gaza and the Gazans have been reeling under the brunt of barbaric, ferocious, brutal, ruthless, merciless, aerial bombardments.

They falsely claimed that Hamas beheaded babies and they failed to produce a single piece of evidence, yet they remain silent against it's the images of thousands of babies and children torn apart in Gaza as a result of the Israeli missiles. Now all exposed.

The whole West claiming and preaching about democracy, Humanity, rule of law, it's nothing but hypocrisy. It is a Lynch law. We are living in a jungle...

...It is the United States that vetos condemnation of Israel in the Security Council. It is the United States that stands on the way of a ceasefire in Gaza. ..

Supporting Gaza and the Gazans is the least Humane requirement. those who took out to the street in support, those who donate, let alone those who fight are under the duty towards Gaza and Gazins. Those who remain silent must reconsider about their faith if they claim to be religious, and their honor if they claim to be honorable.

Arab and Muslim states must spare no effort to at least put an end to the war. If you are prevented from acting listen to your religion, your conscience, your values. You should all work for the top Prime goal to end [the war].

condemnation statements are not enough. Sever relations, recall ambassadors. We cannot condemn at the same time supply gas, oil, and Food Supplies to Israel. Regretfully enough, in the past wars the Arab and Muslim states calling for cutting off oil supplies to the United States. Now we are calling on the Arab and Muslim states to cut off oil and gas, and food supplies, from Israel. Stop your exports to Israel.

Gazans are telling the whole Arab and Muslim countries 'we are not asking for your arms, weapons, or fighters, but do you not have the least of honor or dignity to deliver some aid?. Presidents, Scholars, ministers, many high level and topnotch officials, aren't they capable of going themselves staging sit-ins on the border line with Gaza? They can. They can turn the border line as a platform to address the whole world. Here I do not wish to label others as traitors, or whatever.

Yet, we should not fall in despair. We should continue to call on our brothers, we should continue to place responsibility on the responsible, hoping at a point of time the whole humanity will listen to the sound of reason and their conscience may wake up.

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Secretary-General  Gaza speech, AlJazeera translation 4 November 2023 

"Maybe life has hardened me over the past years. In New York, I had a good schooling in terms of responding to all sorts of crisis situations at the UN Security Council. Someone would dash in and say that something had erupted, broken out and it was necessary to urgently adopt a resolution, when we wanted to work the matter through and take no abrupt steps."
Sergey Lavrov 17 December 2018

"If you wish to steer away from a regional War you must hurriedly act towards ending the aggression on Gaza."

...We must set the near-term goals which we should all work to achieve.
The first goal we should work for day and night is to end the war on Gaza.
The second one is to enable Gaza, the resistance fight in Gaza, and particularly Hamas, to triumph. These are the two short term goals. We should not lose sight of these two goals"

The first to cease the war, cease the aggression on the grounds of humanitarian, ethical, religious, lawful, grounds which are unquestionable."
Hassan Nasrallah, Cleric and Secretary-General Lebanon Hezbollah, Gaza speech, AlJazeera video translation, 4 November 2023 

"...not only in Gaza envelope, but also Tel Aviv and Jerusalem it took them hours to come out. They came out in hysterical state angry, in an insane fashion, that's why when they headed to recapture the settlement within Gaza envelope, they perpetrated massacres against the Israeli settlers, not Hamas. Now we start to hear and read reports and investigations providing evidence that it was the Israelis who perpetrated the killing among the Israeli settlers, and in the near future, when the dust settles, the whole world would come to know that all those killed within Gaza envelope were killed by the Israeli Army itself, who was acting insanely in the wake of this big seismic event"
Hassan Nasrallah, Cleric and Secretary-General Lebanon Hezbollah, Gaza speech, AlJazeera video translation, 4 November 2023


" the United States hurriedly dispatched warplane carriers and other pieces of their naval fleet, us top brass, generals, military experts, running to the area to open the Strategic weapon depots for the Israelis. From the very first days Israel demanded new weapons new missiles from United States. From the very first day, Israel demanded 10 billion dollars. Is it a strong state? Is it an invincible Army, as claimed? A state that required that amount of US and Western support, heads of state, heads of governments, defense ministers, top brass, generals, flocking from all over the world to provide moral support.

This is what Al-Aqsa Typhoon has caused to this frail entity. These are some of the profound impacts of Al-Aqsa Typhoon operation.

All these must be evaluated and analyzed in detail which we don't have time to yet."
Hassan Nasrallah, Cleric and Secretary-General Lebanon Hezbollah, Gaza speech, AlJazeera video translation, 4 November 2023

...we should all now work together to end the war and aggression on Gaza. Then we act for the resistance in Gaza to prevail."
Hassan Nasrallah 4 November 2023

"I am speaking openly, candidly, and at the same time with ambiguity. Constructive ambiguity.

All scenarios are open. All scenarios are open on our Lebanese Southern front. I reiterate all scenarios are open. All options are laid out. And we can adopt ANY, at any point of time. We, all together, must be prepared, ready, and available, to all these scenarios and options to come.

To the Americans, the United States Administration I say: darting your threats on Lebanon and resistance in the region is pointless. Not the resistance movement or the resistance countries. It has reached the point that we received message that if you continue to launch operations in the South it will not only bombard the Lebanon but would also bombard Iran. Can you imagine?

To the Americans I say darting your threats on us in Lebanon will be pointless. Your naval fleets in the Mediterranean will not, and cannot, cause us to fear. To you I openly and candidly say that your Fleet that you are using as a threat - we have prepared for them what it takes.

You the Americans - remember your defeats in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and your humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. Those who defeated you in Lebanon at the early 80s are still alive, backed and supported by their children and grandchildren.

If the US and Western politics are calling for steering away from escalation, this cannot be achieved by threats against honest, noble, resistance fighters defending the defenseless.

The only course is to end the war on Gaza. Here, there. That is."
Hassan Nasrallah, Cleric and Secretary-General Lebanon Hezbollah, Gaza speech, AlJazeera video translation, 4 November 2023


"The Libyan model isn't a model that we have at all when we're thinking of North Korea. The model, if you look at that model with Gaddafi, that was a total decimation. We went in there to beat him.
Now that model would take place if we don't make a deal, most likely. But if we make a deal, I think Kim Jong-un is going to be very, very happy,"
Donald Trump, President, May 2018


"North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. He has been very threatening, beyond a normal state, and as I said, they will be met with fire fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before."
Donald Trump, President, 8 August 2018

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones"
Donald Rumsfeld, United States Secretary of Defense, 12 February 2002 

"Based on legitimate rights and with the aim of peace and security for Iran and the region, a decisive response was given to the aggression of the Zionist regime. This action was in defense of the interests and citizens of Iran.
Let Netanyahu know that Iran is not a belligerent, but it stands firmly against any threat. This is only a corner of our power. Do not enter into a conflict with Iran."
Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, 2 October 2024, on X (Google translation)


"Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that his government was not seeking a war with Israel but would confront any threat in a resolute manner.
"An exchange of messages does not mean [the existence] of agreements, and before the response there was no exchange of messages.
After the response, a warning was issued to Sweden to pass it on to the United States, and it was said that this [missile attack] was our right to self-defense, and we have no intention of continuing. We also issued a warning to the United States to step aside and not to interfere," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was quoted as saying by the Tasnim news agency."
Sputnik 2 October 2024

Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

John Kennedy, 13 March 1962 

"...decision makers are not attentive to and do not correctly perceive all incoming information; various external and internal psychological factors influence their receptivity to new information and its assessment, and these factors also affect their identification and evaluation of options."
Alexander George

"As is known, there are no ifs in politics....We must derive from what is, and work with that. Good or bad, there is no other President of the United States; there is no other United States either."
Vladimir Putin 3 October 2018

Tools of coercion

There are three major tools used to coerce other nations to do what the collective West wants:

1. Economic coercion - trade restrictions of one kind or another, the most powerful of which are generally known as 'sanctions'  (which are almost always illegal under international law)
2. Blackmail
3. Military force (Passive and Active)

Military Force coercion is generally applied by large military powers at the end of a series of preceding non-military coercive acts. Military force coercion, a buildup, feints, threats, responses, escalations and so on, all of which are discussed seperately prior to discussion of the topic of military force coercion, which is much further down the page.

Economic Coercion - Sanctions

"As we joined the World Trade Organisation, we confirmed yet again that we are actively creating an open economy and are ready to closely cooperate with our partners the world over...We not only started trading in line with common rules and got the opportunity to more efficiently protect the interests of Russian companies, but also undertook obligations to reduce the level of our tariff protection and limit support for certain key sectors of the economy.

We all remember the complicated national discussion on whether we should join the WTO or not, what we gain from it and what we lose. We considered this very seriously before joining the WTO. I would like to remind you that the negotiations lasted 16 years.

Overall, I believe we have managed to get our partners to accept such terms for joining the WTO that met our interests, and though certain sectors of the economy had a price to pay, overall we managed to obtain acceptable terms.

However, in the past months the situation has changed. The limitations introduced against our country are nothing but a violation by some of our partners of the basic principles of the WTO.

The principle of equal access for all countries involved in economic activity to the markets of goods and services is being violated; the most favoured nation treatment in trade and the principle of fair and free competition is being ignored.

All this is politicised, there is no adherence to the generally recognised rules of the World Trade Organisation that I have just mentioned.

A number of countries have actually unilaterally deleted these and some other WTO principles for Russia, which is one of the six largest economies in the world.

In response, we took protective measures, and I would like to stress that they are protective; they are not the result of our desire to punish any of our partners or influence their decision in any way."
Vladimir Putin 18 September 2014 

"I talked about Iran. You know its role in global energy markets. We know that role is diminishing. Its exports have tanked due to our pressure campaign, and we have every intention of driving Iranian oil exports to zero just as quickly as we can."
Michael Pompeo, Secretary of State, USA 12 March 2019

"Another characteristic of coercive diplomacy is the possibility that the coercing power may couple its threat of punishment for noncompliance with positive inducements to encourage the adversary to to comply with the demand...As with threats of of punishment, positive inducements and reassurances must also be credible."

"...we are in principle ready to look at taking the steps needed to make the other tranches available with regard to the purchase of bonds. But our Western partners have asked us not to do this. They have asked us to work together through the IMF to encourage the Ukrainian authorities to carry out the reforms needed to bring about recovery in the Ukrainian economy...But given that Naftogaz of Ukraine is not paying Gazprom now, the Government is considering various options....

...The formal reason was that he [Yanukovych] did not sign the European Union Association Agreement. Today, this seems like nonsense; it is ridiculous to even talk about.

But I want to point out that he did not refuse to sign the association agreement. He said: “We have carefully analysed it, and its content does not correspond with our national interests. We cannot sharply increase energy prices for our people, because our people are already in a rather difficult position. We cannot do this, and that, and that. We cannot immediately break our economic ties with Russia, because our cooperation is very extensive.”

I have already presented these figures: out of approximately 14 billion [dollars] in export, approximately 5 billion represents second and third technological processing level products exported to Russia. In other words, just about all engineering products are exported to Russia; the West is not buying any Ukrainian products.

And to take all this and break it apart, to introduce European technical standards in the Ukrainian economy, which, thankfully or unfortunately, we are not using at the moment. We will adopt those standards at some point, but currently, we do not have those standards in Russia.

This means the next day, our relations and cooperation ties will be broken, enterprises will come to a standstill and unemployment will increase.

And what did Yanukovych say? He said, “I cannot do this so suddenly, let’s discuss this further.” He did not refuse to sign it, he asked for a chance to discuss this document some more, and then all this craziness [the coup] began...did it really need to be taken to this level of anarchy, to an unconstitutional overthrow and armed seizure of power, subsequently plunging the nation into the chaos where it finds itself today? I think this is unacceptable...

I sometimes get the feeling that somewhere across that huge puddle, in America, people sit in a lab and conduct experiments, as if with rats, without actually understanding the consequences of what they are doing. Why did they need to do this? Who can explain this? There is no explanation at all for it."
Vladimir Putin 4 March 2014

"In response to the unfriendly actions of certain states, Russia has adopted restrictions on agricultural imports. As we all know and remember, the prices of agricultural products in the domestic market initially increased, which is regrettable. However, this subsequently encouraged the development of the national agriculture sector. Today we can see the positive results that Mr Patrushev has reported.

The situation in industry is somewhat similar. It is not exactly the same, but there are similarities. Following the restrictions on the import of industrial goods, our businesses have become involved in certain spheres and have often performed more effectively than our partners, who only supplied relatively cheap products to the industrial goods market. I would like to repeat that this partly explains the growth of our GDP. This is not identical, of course, but this analogy and comparison are appropriate.

Here is what I would like to say in this connection. Russia is a global leader in the reserves of some strategic raw materials, holding approximately 22 percent of the world’s gas, nearly 23 percent of gold, and nearly 55 percent of diamonds.

(Addressing Mikhail Mishustin) Mr Mishustin, I have a request for you. Please, take a look at some types of commodities that we supply to the global market in large quantities, while the supply of some goods to us has been limited. Should we consider restrictions too, like for uranium, titanium and nickel exports? But we must not be our own enemy at the same time.

Some countries are creating strategic reserves and taking other measures. Overall, if this does not harm us, we should consider the above move. Not that this should be done immediately, but we should think about restricting the export of not only the commodities I have mentioned but also several other goods.

I will not elaborate on the reasons for this now. I believe that our colleagues in the Government are fully aware of the importance of such Russian raw materials. I simply mentioned the first goods that came to mind: uranium, titanium and nickel, but there are other such commodities as well.

Please, think about it, and report your ideas to me. Agreed?"
Vladimir Putin 11 September 2024

Countries sanctioned or embargoed by the US and EU

By one count (it's hard to keep up) the United States alone has embargoes and/or sanctions on people, official organisations and businesses (including banking) in 'Balkans', Belarus, Central African Republic, China, Republic of Congo, Cuba, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe (at least).

The EU applied economic coercion to a smaller list of countries, but, unlike the USA, applies far more economic coercion to the Russian Federation.


G7 on economic coercion

"...the Americans, while they’re specialist in dialogue with Russia, and the Europeans are special experts in sanctions, we need both, and this is what we’re doing."
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian at a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Tony Blinken June 25, 2021

The west are 'masters' of economic coercion. On May 20 2023 the G7 group of countries released a Leaders Communique saying:

"we will enhance collaboration by launching the Coordination Platform on Economic Coercion to increase our collective assessment, preparedness, deterrence and response to economic coercion, and further promote cooperation with partners beyond the G7."

"Addressing economic coercion

"<...>We express serious concern over economic coercion and call on all countries to refrain from its use, which not only undermines the functioning of and trust in the multilateral trading system, but also infringes upon the international order centered on respect for sovereignty and the rule of law, and ultimately undermines global security and stability.

At our respective domestic levels, we will use our existing tools, review their effectiveness and develop new ones as needed to deter and counter the use of coercive economic measures.

Recognizing the importance of existing joint efforts including at the WTO, we will enhance collaboration by launching the Coordination Platform on Economic Coercion to increase our collective assessment, preparedness, deterrence and response to economic coercion, and further promote cooperation with partners beyond the G7.

Within this Coordination Platform, we will use early warning and rapid information sharing, regularly consult each other, collaboratively assess situations, explore coordinated responses, deter and, where appropriate, counter economic coercion, in accordance with our respective legal systems"

The stench of EU hypocrisy is overpowering. And beyond simply illogical. They are from the impossible world of Maurits Escher. The G7's "existing tools" are sanctions. They will develop "new ones" - which means new coercive sanctions - to deter any 'counter-sanctions' countries put in place in response to the G7's sanctions...while at the same time, the G7, the initiators, architects, and impositors of coercive economic sanctions "call on all countries to refrain from its [economic sanctions] use"!

The US, Canada, Japan, Australia & Aotearoa on economic coercion Edited 5 January 2024

On 8 June 2023 Joint Declaration Against Trade-Related Economic Coercion and Non-Market Policies and Practices at a Ministerial meeting in Paris on 8 June 2023.

"Joint Declaration Against Trade-Related Economic Coercion and Non-Market Policies and Practices
The use of trade-related economic coercion and non-market-oriented policies and practices (“non-market policies and practices”) threatens and undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system and harms relations between countries. The purpose of this Declaration is to express our shared concern and affirm our commitment to enhance international cooperation in order to effectively deter and address trade-related economic coercion and non-market policies and practices.

1. We express serious concern over trade-related economic coercion and non-market policies and practices that undermine the functioning of and confidence in the rules-based multilateral trading system by distorting trade, investment, and competition and harming relations between countries.
Trade-related economic coercion and non-market policies and practices threaten the livelihoods of our citizens, harm our workers and businesses, and could undermine global security and stability.

2. Non-market policies and practices of concern include: industrial policies and practices that promote excess capacity; pervasive subsidization; discriminatory and anti-competitive activities of state owned or controlled enterprises; the arbitrary or unjustifiable application of regulations; forced technology transfer; state-sponsored theft of trade secrets; government interference with or direction of commercial decision-making; and insufficient regulatory and market transparency. Non-market policies and practices have also been used as tools for economic coercion.

3. We are particularly concerned with, and oppose, trade-related economic coercion that uses, or uses the threat of, measures affecting trade and investment in an abusive, arbitrary, or pretextual manner to pressure, induce or influence a foreign government into taking, or not taking, a decision or action in order to achieve a strategic political or policy objective, or prevent or interfere with the foreign government’s exercise of its legitimate sovereign rights or choices. This trade-related economic coercion is frequently disguised as a legitimate government regulatory or public policy measure unrelated to the strategic objective that it is intended to advance. It may also occur indirectly through government entrustment or direction given to state-owned, state-controlled, or private enterprises.

4. We are also seriously concerned about the use of forced labour, including state-sponsored forced labour, in global supply chains. All forms of forced labour are gross abuses of human rights, as well as economic issues, and it is a moral imperative to end these practices. We are aware of countries using these practices to confer an unfair competitive advantage, and affirm that there must be no place for such practices in the global trading system.

5. We affirm, in light of relevant international rules and norms, that this declaration does not apply to measures that are adopted and maintained in a transparent manner, in good faith, and for the purpose of a legitimate public policy objective. These legitimate public policy measures include: health and safety regulations, environmental regulations, trade remedies, national security measures and sanctions, and measures to protect the integrity and stability of financial systems and financial institutions from abuse.

6. We urge all governments to refrain from the use of trade-related economic coercion and non-market policies and practices and to support free and fair trade based on open, market-oriented policies and principles that promote a level playing field and non-discriminatory treatment in international trade relations, benefit all economies, and help secure shared prosperity for all.

7. We commit to work together, with all interested partners, to identify, prevent, deter, and address trade-related economic coercion and non-market policies and practices, including through multilateral institutions, such as the WTO. These efforts will include, where appropriate, cooperation in WTO committees and in disputes to challenge these practices. We also commit to the sharing of information, data and analysis concerning these policies and practices as well as exploring the development of new diplomatic and economic tools that support and reinforce the rules-based multilateral trading system in responding to these challenges."

The stench of US and US vassal's hypocrisy is, once again, overpowering. But there is a twist.

The Ministers had to release this additional statement because they realised their policy to coerce was going to shoot the Europeans in the foot ("or a little higher up" as the Russian President once said) and benefit the United States. The Europeans had been duped again.

The US was going to use force the Europeans themselves to change their public policy, allow US interests to buy (for example) the French state controlled nuclear industry, scrap the UK ability to buy cheaper generic drugs, enforce privatisation of anything in Europe of value and not yet privatised. (There is an intriguing mention of "measures to protect the integrity and stability of financial systems and financial institutions from abuse" - SWIFT restrictions and theft of Russian state reserves are good examples of such abuse. They are either coming to their senses, or they coming up with even stupider local 'west-only' bloc digital currency and exchange. We should never underestimate the stupidity of western politicians.)

With reference to the United States  "where appropriate, cooperation in WTO committees and in disputes to challenge these practices", one member of the WTO, namely the United States, has unilaterally blocked the disputes mechanism of the WTO by the simple expedient of preventing the formation of a quarum to elect new disputes mechanism officials (their term has expired). It isn't a coincidence - there are numerous suits lodged by China, for one, against the USA practise of discriminating against Chinese-made goods. It is apparent why the weasel words "where appropriate" were included - the USA government, believing it alone is 'exceptional', won't cooperate to allow China to take it to the disputes mechanism. Because it knows it will lose 'bigly'.

Of course Russia has retaliated. It has been very careful to stay within commercial law, while at the same time making sure unfriendly countries - which, after all, are in an undeclared war on Russia - take as little profit from Russia as possible. A levy of 10% must be paid to the Russian government. Shares may only be divested to an approved buyer, and at a value finally decided by a government valuer. In addition, control of the unfriendly countries foreign holdings in Russian strategic resources (mainly oil, gas, and banks and other finance related companies) are now 'temporarily' in Russian hands.

'In response to the international network of sanctions imposed against Russia following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Government published a list of “unfriendly” foreign States.^[1] The list includes the EU Member States, the U.K., the U.S. and other States with a Russian sanctions program. Nationals from these countries are subject to an increasingly complex web of retaliatory countersanctions, impacting a variety of business and financial transactions with a Russian nexus.'
Shearman and Sterling 11 May 2023

The weapon of coercive diplomacy can be turned against those using it. And, so far, the west's economic weapon has failed. Just as has its military weaponry.

Consequences of European and US economic coercion

Obviously, some are more consequential than others. In more consequential cases there may be 'permissions' to allow humanitarian goods such as medicine and food, but while these 'exceptions' may be on the books, in reality people are too scared of 'secondary' sanctions being applied to them, they choose to stop supplying those goods or services.

As a result, some of the consequences include:

• Important western medicines are unavailable in Iran and Syria.
• Russian fertilisers bound for Africa are locked in European warehouses.
• Many US and European countries have been forced to leave Russia, often at a loss.
• Russia and Venezuela's gold (in effect) stolen by the west, coupled with lockout of Russia from most of the SWIFT global currency remittance have seriously dented faith in the US dollar and the financial exchange system.
• Dramatically increased  cost of domestic gas and liquid transport fuels in the EU due to the EU cutting itself off from Russian cheap energy supplies.
  

Trade restrictions on Russia have the most consequences - both good and bad - for the world. Many of these effects are covered in detail in my article 'The West's apartheid international trading system'.

There is no need to go into detail on the negative effect of the EU's coercive trade restrictions on Russia. They are regularly reported in the European news media.

"The British Government, through the Gibraltar administration, issued a “specified ship notice” against the Russian-owned, Panama-flagged oil tanker, the Grace-1, carrying a large cargo of Iranian oil. Before dawn on July 4, British Marines attacked the vessel and seized it...The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the Grace-1 attack on July 5; it did not condemn Iran’s retaliation on July 19 when the Stena Impero was boarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on July 19.  We told you so, was the response by Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova on July 11, following warning messages between Iranian and British warships. 
John Helmer, 2 August 2019 

Blackmail Coercion

George stated that an 'offensive coercion' strategy to persuade a 'victim' (his word) to give up something of value they have without putting up resistance is best called what it is - a blackmail strategy.

The most notable feature is that in the 'defensive coercion' strategy the attempt is to persuade (albeit using threats) an 'opponent' to do something, which implies a power balance between the parties, whereas the blackmail strategy is against a victim - meaning there is a power imbalance.

"The measures taken against those who refuse to submit are well-known and have been tried and tested many times. They include use of force, economic and propaganda pressure, meddling in domestic affairs, and appeals to a kind of ‘supra-legal’ legitimacy when they need to justify illegal intervention in this or that conflict or toppling inconvenient regimes.

Of late, we have increasing evidence too that outright blackmail has been used with regard to a number of leaders. It is not for nothing that ‘big brother’ is spending billions of dollars on keeping the whole world, including its own closest allies, under surveillance."
Vladimir Putin October 24, 2014
 

"Russia always worked with Ukraine in an open and honest manner and, as I have already said, with respect for its interests.

We developed our ties in multiple fields. Thus, in 2011, bilateral trade exceeded $50 billion. Let me note that in 2019, that is before the pandemic, Ukraine’s trade with all EU countries combined was below this indicator...

...The officials in Kiev replaced partnership with a parasitic attitude acting at times in an extremely brash manner. Suffice it to recall the continuous blackmail on energy transits and the fact that they literally stole gas.

I can add that Kiev tried to use dialogue with Russia as a bargaining chip in its relations with the West, using the threat of closer ties with Russia for blackmailing the West to secure preferences by claiming that otherwise Russia would have a bigger influence in Ukraine."
Vladimir Putin 21 February 2022 

"We often hear from representatives of the Global South that the Americans, on the contrary, are practicing what they call “coercive diplomacy.” In other words, they are threatening others with sanctions and other punitive measures. 

Indicatively, they are using these methods against the negotiators themselves but also against their family members who own real estate, live or study in the West.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke about this more than once. In turn, his colleagues and partners honestly told him during talks that they are aware of this Western attitude towards them.

In the last few years, voting at the UN General Assembly was often based on this principle of coercion. Mr Lavrov often recalls a very indicative case from his own practice. A colleague from a developing nation complained that the Americans were exerting pressure on his capital to make it renounce cooperation with Moscow. Mr Lavrov asked him what the Americans offered in exchange. The answer was a surprise – the Americans promised not to introduce sanctions. They were not offering any benefits to his country but promised not to make things worse...

...We know for sure that the curators from the US, Britain and the EU brainwashed officials and businesspeople from other countries to renounce participation in the SPIEF 2023. Letters were sent and talks held; blackmail and threats were used, as well as manipulations. The Americans made purposeful trips to countries that are well-disposed towards Russia to disrupt agreements that had been reached.

They said they know about the signing of some agreements with Russia and that now they must be cancelled.

And what will they give in exchange? They said they won’t make it any worse than it is now. This is their logic and tactic. There is a lot of evidence and facts to this effect."
Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova  21 June 2023

"Preparations for the [Russia-Africa] summit are at the final stage...Almost all countries have confirmed that they will attend. More than a half of the African countries will be represented by their top leaders, this despite the daily unashamed pressure and demands to cancel the visit or lower the level of representation. Such are our Western colleagues’ “manners.”

The West does not explain anything but says that “Russia is a threat and you must not have contacts with it because its days are numbered; beware of betting on the wrong horse.” This is the sort of “diplomatic” manners that can be expected from them."
Sergey Lavrov 30 June 2023 

"I repeatedly stated that by issuing threats and exerting pressure, the United States and the United Kingdom are crossing every red line there is.

They are now issuing threats to the effect that some politicians in a particular country have accounts with US banks or that their children study at American universities. They stop at nothing."
Sergey Lavrov 23 January 2023

"...security, trade or economic ties, or financial mechanisms ...created as part of the globalisation effort ... were touted as a boon for the world at large. Then, overnight, they turned into a tool of blackmail, pressure, racketeering and pure theft."
Sergey Lavrov 30 June 2023


"We have taken note of the growing number of reports leaked to the global media about a large-scale search by the United States and its North Atlantic allies throughout the world for Soviet, Russian and Western weapons and ammunition for Vladimir Zelensky’s regime.

We know well about the continuing, unprecedented pressure by the Western masters of Zelensky and his criminal “team” on the countries that purchased such weapons and ammunition for national defence.

They are using the most disgusting methods of blackmail, up to and including threats of physical violence, seizure and withdrawal of these countries’ property and bank assets in the West, and enforcement measures against government officials’ immediate families and close relatives."
Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokewoman, 7 July 2023

" Question: When you look back to the beginning of the war there was a General Assembly resolution that Russia should pull back its troops from Ukraine. At the time there are 141 states in favor of the motion. As things stand now do you think the global position has changed, the perception of Russia has changed?

Sergey Lavrov: "I know how was adopted that resolution. I have many friends in New York. They were privately telling me that the means used by the Americans to get that many votes were really specific. The ambassadors in New York were approached by junior diplomats from an American or British mission and the question was raised: "Mr. Ambassador, please don't forget that the vote is tomorrow and don't forget that your bank account is in Merrill Lynch, that your kids are in Stanford". I'm not exacerbating. It was exactly the means applied....

...The Americans and the Europeans, NATO, EU members were running all over the world. Not just presenting the assessment of what is happening in Ukraine, but putting ultimatum, blackmailing, threats, sanctions. Unless you condemn Russia, there would be consequences. You know how they behave. This is their usual style."
10 December 2023

"I do not want to go into detail at this point, but we know for certain that every trip by a Russian delegation, including a Foreign Ministry delegation, to countries in the Arab world, the Middle East or North Africa is always preceded by Western diplomats’ demarches. They issue warnings, and in some cases even “hint at consequences,” as they like to put it.
Serggey Lavrov, 21 December 2023 

In George's view, blackmail is distinguished by the fact that coercive threats are"employed aggressively" to 'persuade' the victim to 'give something up' something of value without putting up resistance. Examples include aggressively coercing Russia to stop using its own pipeline to send gas to Europe, or aggressively 'allow' the west to acquire part of a Russian strategic assets (natural gas processing and distribution infrastructure, bank accounts, gold) located in the EU, or arm fighter bombers on Russia's border with nuclear bombs in order to 'require' Russia to limit its deployment of hypersonic strategic weapons. Threat alone may be enough, but if it doesn't work, the erstwhile bully will have to 'put up or shut up'.

This is not a problem when big nations pick on small nations (the bully's favorite) especially if the politicians there are corrupt. According to Sergey Lavrov, the west coerces votes from some small nations by a mix of bribery and threats to, for example, end the education of children admitted to prestigious American Universities.

"What we see in the US administration’s budget request for the next year is, of course, not diplomacy, but, rather, modern American diplomacy, which boils down either to threats or sanctions, or, as we are seeing, to an attempt to purchase allies."
Sergey Lavrov 12 March 2019


"It is no secret that our Western opponents are trying to compel many of our partners to curtail beneficial cooperation with Russia through persuasion and with various promises and blackmail. In the process, they do not care one bit about the losses to be sustained by these states and their peoples."
Vladimir Putin May 24 2023

"We remember well NATO's eastward expansion...Despite the fact that relations between Russia and our Western partners, including the United States [at that time], were nothing short of unique, and the level of relations was almost allied, our concerns and warnings regarding NATO's eastward expansion have been totally ignored.
There have been several waves of expansion, and let’s look at where the military infrastructure of the NATO bloc is now – anti-missile defence systems have been deployed right next to our borders in Romania and Poland. These can easily be put to offensive use with the Mk-41 launchers there; replacing the software takes only minutes. "
Vladimir Putin November 18 2021 


"...This array includes promises not to expand NATO eastwards even by an inch. To reiterate: they have deceived us, or, to put it simply, they have played us...This type of con-artist behaviour is contrary not only to the principles of international relations but also and above all to the generally accepted norms of morality and ethics."
Vladimir Putin 24 February 2022

"I'm coming to a very important point of today's agenda. After all, the collapse of the Soviet Union was effectively initiated by the Russian leadership...

....The second point is a very important one. I want you as an American citizen and your viewers to hear about this as well. The former Russian leadership assumed that the Soviet Union had ceased to exist and therefore there were no longer any ideological dividing lines.

Russia even agreed, voluntarily and proactively, to the collapse of the Soviet Union and believed that this would be understood by the so-called (now in scare quotes) ”civilized West“ as an invitation for cooperation and associateship. That is what Russia was expecting both from the United States and the so-called collective West as a whole.

There were smart people, including in Germany. Egon Bahr, a major politician of the Social Democratic Party, who insisted in his personal conversations with the Soviet leadership on the brink of the collapse of the Soviet Union that a new security system should be established in Europe. Help should be given to unify Germany, but a new system should also be established to include the United States, Canada, Russia, and other Central European countries. But NATO needs not to expand. That's what he said: if NATO expands, everything would be just the same as during the Cold War, only closer to Russia's borders. That's all. He was a wise old man, but no one listened to him...

...after 1991, when Russia expected that it would be welcomed into the brotherly family of ”civilized nations,“ nothing like this happened. You tricked us ...I'm talking about the United States...the promise was that NATO would not expand eastward, but it happened five times, there were five waves of expansion. We tolerated all that, we were trying to persuade them, we were saying: ”Please don't, we are as bourgeois now as you are, we are a market economy, and there is no Communist Party power. Let's negotiate.“...

At a meeting here in the Kremlin with the outgoing President Bill Clinton, right here in the next room, I said to him, I asked him, ” Bill, do you think if Russia asked to join NATO, do you think it would happen?“ Suddenly he said: ”You know, it's interesting, I think so.“ But in the evening, when we had dinner, he said, ”You know, I've talked to my team, no-no, it's not possible now.“ You can ask him, I think he will watch our interview, he'll confirm it....we were promised, no NATO to the East, not an inch to the East, as we were told. And then what? They said, ”Well, it's not enshrined on paper, so we'll expand.“...

...we agreed with the fact that after the collapse of the Soviet Union our borders should be along the borders of former Union’s republics. We agreed to that. But we never agreed to NATO’s expansion and moreover we never agreed that Ukraine would be in NATO. We did not agree to NATO bases there without any discussion with us. For decades we kept asking: don’t do this "
Vladimir Putin 9 February 2024

"...you threatened Russia with “consequences” for its alleged attempts to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and accused us of “repeatedly refusing” to meet at the level of foreign ministers in the Normandy format. You know perfectly well that neither of these allegations are true ..

...Given the misrepresentations of Russia’s approaches to the intra-Ukrainian settlement process and convening a Normandy format meeting, we have no choice but to take the unconventional step of making our correspondence public, including my letter to you dated October 29, together with the Russian draft of the outcome document for the Normandy format ministerial meeting, your response dated November 4, and my detailed comments to it dated November 6, 2021
.
I do hope that making these primary sources available to the general public will clarify Russia’s true role and intentions regarding the peace process, and will help build political will, including in Germany and France, for achieving a fair settlement in Donbass that is firmly rooted in the Minsk agreements, without any attempts to convene new meetings in order to further accommodate Kiev in its policy of sabotaging its obligations at the connivance of its Western sponsors, and in direct violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2202 (2015)."
Sergey Lavrov 17 November 2021 


"t must be emphasised that Sebastian Fischer’s words are completely untrue. Let us put it simply, so that it would be easier to translate into German. This is a lie.

For almost two years, the German side has responded to all inquiries from the Russian competent authorities regarding the bombing of the Nord Streams with nothing more than empty excuses and formal replies. Not a single paper they sent us contains any facts.

It is not the first time that Berlin has tried to convince the public and the world diplomatic community that it is allegedly fulfilling all its bilateral obligations of an international nature. It is trying to “feed” the international community this unleashed bureaucratic red tape as proof of fulfilling its international legal obligations. This is a lie. They do not provide the Russian side with any facts they have on this investigation, although they are obliged to."
Maria Zahkarova 21 August 2024

"We have heard lots of lies and false promises from the West. I’m not saying this to keep searching for arguments to back our past or current policies, but to re-confirm the fact that we have learned our lesson. We are no longer looking to the past...The past has taught us a good lesson....based on the current situation in our country and internationally, we will proceed to build our future without relying on our deceitful colleagues who are incapable of holding up their end of the bargain, our former Western partners.
Sergey Lavrov 30 June 2023


Debater: "so our diplomats are lying?"
Former Ambassador to Russia McFaul: "Yes! Yes! That's the real world guys. C'mon, c'mon. That's the real world."
Debater: "Wait a second. Wait a second. Aren't the diplomats who are lying all the time, yet the Russians should trust them when they offer assurances [to Russia - Ed]?"
Munk debate Ukraine 12 May 2022 



"US politicians, political scientists and journalists write and say that a veritable “empire of lies” has been created inside the United States in recent years.

It is hard to disagree with this – it is really so. But one should not be modest about it: the United States is still a great country and a system-forming power. All its satellites not only humbly and obediently say yes to and parrot it at the slightest pretext but also imitate its behaviour and enthusiastically accept the rules it is offering them.

Therefore, one can say with good reason and confidence that the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same “empire of lies.”"
Vladimir Putin 24 February 2022

"...we were doing everything in our power to solve this problem by peaceful means, and patiently conducted talks on a peaceful solution to this devastating conflict. Behind our backs, a very different plan was being hatched. As we can see now, the promises of Western leaders, their assurances that they were striving for peace in Donbass turned out to be a sham and outright lies.

They were simply marking time, engaged in political chicanery, turning a blind eye to the Kiev regime’s political assassinations and reprisals against 'undesirable' people, their mistreatment of believers. They increasingly incited the Ukrainian neo-Nazis to stage terrorist attacks in Donbass. The officers of nationalist battalions trained at Western academies and schools."
Vladimir Putin February 21, 2023

"When our troops were near Kiev, we received a proposal and even a plea from our Western partners to cease fire and stop hostilities in order for certain things to be done on the Ukrainian side. We did it. ...The Ukrainian side did not cease hostilities.

Later we were told that the official Ukrainian authorities could not control all their military units, because there were allegedly those that were not subordinate to the central authorities. This is what we were told, no more and no less."
Vladimir Putin 4 July 2024

But the problem remains: the west and their proxies are 'bad faith actors'. They deceive, lie and dissemble. Agreements worked out with much effort and probably many concessions are made ready for signing - then abandoned in a flash.

"Second, we were asked to move our troops away from Kiev in order to create conditions to finally sign a peace treaty. We did this and faced deception once again: all the agreements reached in Istanbul were thrown in the trash.

Such things happened repeatedly."
Vladimir Putin 4 July 2024

"We put forward an idea to sign a treaty on European security in 2008 and 2009. There was one simple thing to it. The 1999 Istanbul Charter for European Security had indivisibility of security enshrined at the top level.

Countries are free to choose alliances, but they cannot do so if by strengthening their security they undermine the security of others.

It was stated explicitly that all OSCE participants (presidents and prime ministers signed it) undertake that no country, no group of countries and not a single alliance within the OSCE space will claim dominance.

Back then, almost immediately NATO reprised its policy of dominance. We told them that the Istanbul Charter was a political declaration with political commitments that had been made not by “third secretaries” from embassies, but by presidents.

We proposed codifying it, since they were unable to comply with the commitments made at the top level, and to adopt the European Security Treaty (legal obligations) using the same language.

We were told that only NATO members can obtain legally binding security guarantees. We noted that we had earlier signed the OSCE document stating that no one would claim dominance. We were told it was just a “political statement.”

Later, they claimed that the assurances not to expand NATO were “verbal,” but when the Russia-NATO Founding Act was concluded, they said it was in writing, but “not quite” legally binding.

Our patience was unparalleled. President Putin repeatedly mentioned several times that he pushed himself to keep the shreds of trust for quite a  while, hoping that something would “sprout” from the leftover “seed” if the West comes to its senses and behaves in a dignified and civilised manner. Nothing happened.

 In 2008-2009, the European security treaty was tossed out after they refused to discuss it with us. There were two treaties: one with NATO and one with the OSCE (but a legally binding treaty this time).

In late 2021, President Putin (after delivering remarks at our Ministry) instructed the Ministry to draft proposals reflecting the current state of international affairs. The West outright refused to discuss them. I was among the people involved in this process. Ministerial delegations at the level of deputy ministers met first.

In January 2022, I had talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Geneva. He said that there may be no commitments regarding the non-expansion of NATO, adding that they had withdrawn from the INF Treaty, because Russia had “violated” it earlier. I reminded him that when Washington withdrew from the Treaty, Moscow agreed (since they believed it was the only way out of the situation for them) to declare a unilateral moratorium. We suggested that the Americans do the same.

President Putin’s initiative clearly stated that they can come and see for themselves what things really are, if they still suspect that our Iskander systems deployed in the Kaliningrad Region are equipped with medium-range missiles that are prohibited by the Treaty. In return, though, we want to be able to go to Poland and Romania, where they have built missile defence bases equipped with the facilities whose manufacturer (Lockheed Martin) claimed in an ad that they were dual-purpose and can be used to launch prohibited ground-based medium-range missiles (the Americans deployed these bases and facilities even before the Treaty was terminated).

They refused. We suggested a fair deal where they come to us and look at what they suspected us of, and we, in turn, would go and see what their ad looks like in real life. They said no.

I told Antony Blinken about our package of proposals. They are concerned about the developments surrounding Ukraine, even though they are the ones creating a crisis situation. He said NATO was out of question. However, we should come to terms with regard to our proposal about medium-range missiles, meaning that they can now be deployed in Ukraine as well (since they are not banned any longer), and the United States will be willing to limit their number in Ukraine.

I’m not sure what else I need to say for everyone to understand why the special military operation became inevitable when Ukraine (under a blatantly Nazi regime that banned everything Russian) was flooded with weapons, which fact we saw as a direct threat to our security, traditions and legitimate interests."
Sergey Lavrov 19 April 2024

"...I would like to remind you that criminal proceedings have been instituted against a number of such representatives from foreign media outlets for illegally crossing the state border of the Russian Federation. All such incidents are carefully recorded, and appropriate action will be taken against violators.

From the journalistic perspective, these pseudo-reporters can only be regarded as traitors to the profession who have stooped as low as direct involvement in the fabrication and dissemination of Ukrainian Nazi propaganda.

The nature of the stories published following their forays, including staged videos with Bandera followers holding POWs and civilians at gunpoint and interviews with militants openly flaunting Nazi stripes, clearly indicates the true purposes of this media operation on the occupied Russian lands – to whitewash the criminal Kiev regime, conceal the crimes it commits against the civilian population, further destabilise the information landscape by manipulating public opinion, rehabilitate Nazism and create enabling climate for the West’s continued support of the terrorist Kiev clique.

It is quite telling that when such journalists are caught demonstrating Nazi symbols (which is a criminal offence even in their own countries), they scramble to remove or retouch the compromising content.

For example, Ilario Piagnerelli, with the Italian state media Rai News, has expunged an interview with a neo-Nazi militant wearing an SS Panzer Division Leibstandarte Adolf Hitler cap from his social media accounts....

We consider this kind of Western media activity as evidence of their direct involvement in a far-reaching hybrid aggression against Russia."
Maria Zakharova, Spokeswoman Russia Federation Foreign Ministry 19 August 2024

First, the 'light' version of this technique is used by the USA, in particular. The breaches are generally of agreements, or of international law rather than civil law. They often involve military threats of one kind or another. Here, every time the USA wants to break an agreement or create a unilateral security risk to Russia or its allies, it first accuses the Russians of doing exactly what it is about to do. It then, of course, claims it 'had to' take action due to the other sides actions. This has become a highly predictable USA modus operandi. In fact, any time you hear the USA make some allegation against Russia, it is a reliable signal they themselves are about to embark on some unlateral action that increases the threat to the Russian Federations security.

The criminal frameup technique is more serious in the 'civil law' sense, but may not have very much strategic importance. This technique is a favorite of the UK and EU governments. The idea is simple, to exploit an existing terrorist or criminal act (whether government or civilian) by 'hanging' it on the Russian government.

This technique was amplified at the time that the west started the massive and historic operation to economically, politically, and culturally coerce Russia into opening up its resources to the west.

The best known examples are the Skirpal chemical agent poisoning (probably a farmed-out British operation), the shoot-down of the Malaysian airliner (highly likely by Ukraine), the poisoning of the wests Navalrny project (probably UK again), and the chemical weapon attacks in Ukraine (mixed provenance, possibly enabled by Turkey and the UK).

"Yes, they have sued us. There is one thing we need to understand. They say that we have done it to the Skripals and that we must say whether it was done on orders from President Putin or whether he had lost control over the secret services which did this without his consent. Nobody else had a clear reason [to poison the Skripals], so it is highly likely that Russia is responsible, they say.

This is baby talk, not a serious investigation.

We put concrete questions to them: Where is Yulia Skripal? Why has her cousin been denied a visa which we requested officially many times? Unfortunately, you can’t sue for a visa.

We ask similar questions about the Malaysian Boeing. Why haven’t they included in their investigation the material that has been provided by Almaz-Antey, the producer of the Buk systems?

Why haven’t the Ukrainians provided their radar data, unlike Russia, or the transcript of what their air controllers said?

Why haven’t the Americans provided their satellite information?

No answer. But we will continue to ask these questions and we will keep reminding everyone that a day will come when these shameful intrigues will end.
Sergey Lavrov 17 December 2018

The Skirpal project was used as a trigger to reduce Russian diplomatic staff levels all through the west, as the first part of destroying all relations with Russia. This is one of their famous 'reversible' punishments.

"No one is going to give us the investigation materials (or at least to make them transparent) into the 2018 Salisbury incident or the documents confirming the claimed version of the 2020 poisoning of Alexey Navalny.

Germany said it could not provide them, and there was a fascinating explanation for that. They didn’t find anything when they brought him to a civilian clinic but they found evidence at a military hospital.

We asked them to show us the test results; the Germans replied they could not do that as it would disclose information about their biosecurity."
Sergey Lavrov, 10 March 2023

"Let us recall what the world was presented with when the Russian military left Kiev’s suburb of Bucha. We had not been there for over two days; the local authorities were there, proudly declaring on television that “they are back and Bucha is free.”

Almost three days later, neatly dressed corpses appeared on the central street – they were carefully laid along the street. This was blamed on the Russian military and a new package of sanctions was adopted.

A year and a half has passed since then but nobody has said a word about any investigation there or who might be leading it. We officially asked UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the UN Security Council why this universal organisation could not investigate this crime that was blamed on Russia in front of the entire world.

We have already lost hope of receiving any information on the course of the investigation (if it is being conducted at all).

We still cannot get an answer to a very simple question – is it possible to name those whose bodies were shown to the whole world on TV and the internet? We cannot win even this small victory.

They produced the required spillover effect, received an excuse for more sanctions but stashed their lie well enough to prevent anyone from discovering it.

Our appeal or demand to the UN Secretary-General is to use his authority to clear up at least this issue – identify a list of people whose bodies were presented to the world. This demand remains valid. I believe the UN has no right to shun its responsibility on such issues.

This is especially true now that the developments in the Middle East have exacerbated the problems of international humanitarian law to the limit."
Sergey Lavrov, 8 November 2023 

Serious questions aren't answered, serious investigations, including joint investigations, are dismissed or blocked. The truth must not be uncovered.

Diplomatic Signalling Edited 25 December 2025 (NZT)

In a normal trust-based relationship between countries, both sides simply lay out their respective positions, and respectfully try to reach a compromise. When a compromise is not possible, they both accept their differences and park the issue to one side (unless the issue is one affecting a countries core interests, such as preserving sovereignty, or the continued health of the nation).

"We are always ready to expand equitable interstate dialogue with everyone on the solid foundation of international law and principles of the UN Charter.

At the same time, we drastically suppress any attempts to speak with us in a preaching and arrogant manner, let alone blackmail us and interfere in our domestic affairs. We always respond in a tough and resolute manner.

Our conversation with any partner can only be mutually respectful and should be aimed exclusively at finding a balance of interests.
Sergey Lavrov, 01 December 2021

The above statement was made to Russian Parliamentarians on the day before Mr. Lavrov was due to have a brief meeting on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting in Stockholm on December 2.  It was a blunt statement about the tone and conditions for any meeting with the Americans, and the statement was made several months before Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine. Sergey Lavrov was shown working at a table at the Council meeting, presumably on the sidelines, with a picture of an arctic fox on the wall behind him. The Russian word for Arctic fox sounds similar to a crude epithetic for a part of the female anatomy, and is used as an oblique reference in Russian street-level culture.

Perhaps it was just a co-incidence.

The Wests tone to Russia prior to the meeting was apparent in Sergey Lavrov's post-meeting remarks to the press.

"NATO continues to escalate the situation on our borders. The Alliance refuses to review our proposals for defusing tensions and preventing dangerous incidents. We have suggested specific measures on these matters. They continue to actively build up military potentials in Eastern Europe, including in close proximity to Russian borders. Every day, we hear vociferous statements threatening Russia.
Sergey Lavrov 2 December 2021

But when diplomacy is destroyed, and one side stops engaging in an adult manner with the other, then 'talking to each other' has to be done through official statements, social media comments, press articles, interviews, through intermediary countries, and through speeches, statements, and documentary deposits at international fora such as the United Nations Security Council, G20, and other formats. Sometimes unofficial 'back channel' interlocutors are used. These are forms of 'signalling'.

The size, makeup, and deployment of military forces are a form of coercive signalling, and in the case of Russia, a clear signal of resolute intention. Prior to the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, when Russia was trying to signal to the west and to Ukraine not to launch an attack on the rebel provinces, it made a coercive show of military force, a classic 'threat display'. It held a massive military deployment exercise within its own border. Russia was signaling determined intent not to accept a NATO threat on it's border, or rather a NATO threat from a country with one of the worlds largest land force army, a military force controlled by the neo-nazi far right, deeply conditioned to hate Russia. In addition, when the United States - which travels thousands of kilometers to engage in large scale NATO 'threat displays' not too far from Russia's borders - started to complain about a Russian 'threat' from a exercise held within Russia own territory, the Russian government sent another signal.

Russia signaled a willingness to compromise. It unilaterally pulled it's forces back from Russian territory near the border. The signal was ignored by Ukraine and their western handlers.

Unfortunately, the west has deliberately set out to destroy all diplomatic relations with Russia. Russia has long since laid out its concerns, over and over again. Now the west has exploited Ukraines civil war to launch an undeclared proxy war on Russia. What will Russia do? Russia has already laid out what it will do in Ukraine, and why. It does not announce a political objective (to be attained by military force) without having absolutely ensured the objective is obtainable at an acceptable cost. In such a situation, what compromises, if any, is Russia willing to make? The west doesn't know. All it has left is Russia's signals.

George says coercive diplomacy requires a party to use "appropriate communications" before, during, or after the threat of force, or use of force to protect that parties core interests. The use of force in coercive diplomacy is limited, it is a 'threat display', suggesting worse will follow if the other party doesn't comply. It is not full-blown strategic war.

The weakness of 'coercive diplomacy' is on full display when this strategy is used against a powerful country, and at the same time the coercing aggressor refuses to talk in a respectful, adult manner. Where are George's 'communications'? This is a 'half George'. It can't work. It is stupidity at extreme heights.

The aggressor is left with nothing but signals to work with. George makes the claim that "signalling, bargaining, and negotiating...are built into into the conceptualization and conduct of any military alerts, deployments or actions - features that are not found, or are of secondary interest in traditional military strategy".

Coercion in the European home of the most powerful defensive land army in the world - which is also the country with the most effective nuclear and conventional weapon systems in the world - and you won't talk?  Coercive diplomacy has served the US government very well when used against some weak states (it failed in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and will likely fail in Syria). The idea of using coercive diplomacy against a powerful and determined state like Russia is wildly misconceived.

It is one thing to foolishly rush down this road to nowhere, realise the stupidity of the impulse, then stop, and back up through dialogue and face-saving 'bargaining'; it is the purist expression of utter administrative incompetence to realise your mistake, but keep heading down the wrong path while refusing meaningful dialogue.

"I will look you in the eye and tell you, as President Biden looked President Putin in the eye and told him today, that things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now. 

Now, in terms of the specifics, we would prefer to communicate that directly to the Russians, to not negotiate in public, to not telegraph our punches.  But we are laying out for the Russians in some detail the types of measures that we have in mind.  We are also coordinating very closely with our European allies on that at a level of deep specificity. "
Jake Sullivan 7 December 2021

Prior to the launch of the special military operation the west deliberately closed down all bargaining, choosing ultimatums instead. Russia communicated, clearly and effectively. It sent a draft security treaty to every NATO state individually (acting on the premise they are sovereign nations) and requested negotiation on it. The only reply was from the US government, which simply dismissed the document.

The west was only interested in threatening Russia, blackmailing Russia, sweeping aside all Russia's warnings and publicly stated red lines.

As escalations continued, the Russians continued to signal intent. Some may appear obscure to the casual reader, but they are crystal clear to the diplomats and analysts in Washington and London.

On September 21, 2022 the President of the Russian Federation said:

"Those who are using nuclear blackmail against us should know that the wind rose can turn around."
Vladimir Putin 21 September 2022

A wind rose is a compass-like circular diagram pointing to the prevailing winds in a given country. When when the United Kingdom sent depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine, Russia did nothing. Until the wind was blowing steadily away from Russia and across Poland towards the UK. Russia then vaporised the warehouse and depleted uranium. Radiation levels spiked all along the path of the wind, from Poland to the Southeast United Kingdom.

Another good example of signalling is quite recent, and it is nicely described by former diplomat M. K.Bhadrakumar:

“In yet another coincidence, on September 7, Zaporozhye Region Acting Governor Yevgeny Balitsky (a Kremlin appointee) told TASS out of the blue that Russia and Ukraine need a neutral platform where the two countries can negotiate pragmatic solutions to mutual issues, including prisoner swaps, which would work even as the special military operation continues. Balitsky was responding to a pointed question from TASS about the current possibility of Russia-Ukraine talks.

He went on to state that:

"There should be a negotiating platform somewhere — at the level of foreign ministries, at the level of other mediating countries. People are needed who are, unfortunately, disengaged from the situation. They are able to tackle the issue in an objective and pragmatic way, however, there should be a table somewhere where authorised representatives would interact. This will allow [POW] swap issues to be resolved, or, for example, the issue of a moratorium on shelling nuclear power plants. This will benefit everyone, even in war time, no matter how cynical this sounds.

So, in any case there should be some kind of platform. It could launch the beginning of more extensive talks. And something could grow from this as a result. And, perhaps, we would be able to resolve the task set forth by the president peacefully.” 

Make no mistake, Balitsky is a seasoned politician from Melitopol hailing from a military family who served in the Soviet army and had two terms in the Ukrainian parliament since he entered politics in 2004. No doubt, he spoke on instructions from the Kremlin. 

By the way, Putin had met Balitsky at the Kremlin two weeks ago. Balitsky’s remarks were carefully timed, and Blinken and his Ukrainian hosts wouldn’t have missed the message he transmitted — that Moscow is open to negotiations.
M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline 8 September 2023

Weak signals Edited 24 December 2023 (NZT)

Some weak signals are directed to a public audience, others to a diplomatic audience, sometimes both.

"The leaders of nations Moscow considers “unfriendly” will not be sent traditional New Year and Christmas greetings from President Vladimir Putin this year, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS on Saturday. Only Russia’s friends and allies will receive the messages, he added."
RT 23 December 2023 

When you are no longer on someones christmas card list, you know that either relations between you have broken down over something, or you are no longer of interest to that person. Same with international relations.

The weakest diplomatic signals are when diplomats from 'unfriendly' countries have limited access to highest level government officials. They may be made to 'wait in the corridor' before the official of the other side brings them in for the meeting. In the opposite case, diplomats from friendly countries are according lavish ceremonial greetings, banquets, and the like. These manoevers send a signal, but there is limited coercive power in them, except the power to slightly shift public perception of 'what's going on'. And when a country sets out to destroy relations with another, it well understands that this is the inevitable price it will have to pay. In other words, it goes into it with wide open clear eyes, laser focused (if we are to 'supersize' USA diplomatic buzzwords).

When the USA destroyed all sensible diplomatic contact with the Russian Federation, it backed itself into a 'passive aggressive' stance. The USA had its arms crossed, it's nose in the air, and its back turned. It pretended to feel agitated at Russia's defense of its supreme interest, at Russia's refusal to bow down before it. In truth, the USA gambled on Russia falling apart politically due to the unprecedented western sanctions and the body bags of Russian soldiers coming home. They were waiting to reconcile with a broken Russia.

The wests proxy war on Russia has failed, the economic war has failed. The west would like to be involved in setting the terms for Ukraine's eventual capitulation. Once the USA has finished 'writing off' some more old military stock in Ukraine, it would like some sort of public relations 'victory' framed around the USA government success in blocking a non-existent threat - that Russia would seize the whole of Ukraine.

" Well, we’ve been able to slow him up, stop him.  He’s already lost in the sense that he cannot — can never occupy that country and successfully do it...We are, as Madeleine Albright said, the essential nation. We are the essential nation."
Joseph Biden 23 October 2023

In essence, he is signalling that the USA will block a peace settlement unless Russia agrees to a staged pantomime of American successful 'peace negotiations'.

However, as Alexander George points out, the threatened 'punishment' for non-compliance has to be credible. But the USA government has nothing left to threaten Russia with.

The signal is weak.

The USA government position, in a huff in the corner, looks ridiculous. The world has moved on.

Strong signals  [edited 22 June 2024] 

Russia gave an uncharacteristically very strong diplomatic signal to the west when it insisted its December 2021 security treaty be considered seriously. It was ignored.

In October 2023 Russia deployed Mig-31 loaded with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles over the Black Sea.

The President heard the report of the Chief of the General Staff, probably the district commanders, personally listened to the reports in order to understand what problems there are and ways to solve them. I think the main topic was the presence of two aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean. On board these ships, according to my calculations, there are approximately 750-800 Tomahawk missiles, which cover a decent amount of the territory of the Russian Federation. That's a decent amount of power.

Our President immediately decided to put the Mig-31 with Kinzhal missiles on combat duty.
Andrey Gurulev, Russian Lieutenant General, October 2023

This is a very strong military signal. A coercive warning not to do something, with in this case the 'something' being a surprise attack on Russia. Or - perhaps -Syria (Iran can take care of itself).

Some very strong signals are stated by the diplomats be be exactly that:

"Let’s call a spade a spade, the classic, old, previous reading of nuclear deterrence didn’t work correctly...We recently saw the president order an exercise to develop practical skills in the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.

This in itself is a signal that is read not only by military professionals, not only by diplomats, but, I really hope, by the general public in Western countries, which condones their leaders in a completely irresponsible and dangerous course that is pushing Western countries into the abyss of direct armed confrontation with Russia.

...We have never agreed with the Americans in their idea of ​​a limited nuclear war...We have always said that if nuclear weapons are used on the battlefield, it will be very difficult to control the subsequent scenario, the subsequent course and the path of escalation.

We must do everything possible to avoid a setback there, because I deeply believe that it is impossible to ensure a limited nuclear war and victory in it."
Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister June 2024, on 60 Minut television show

In early June 2024 the Russian government orchestrated an even stronger military signal than that of just prior to the launch of the 2022 special military operation. A massive force of regular army forces was staged on Russia's pre-accession border. The makeup of the forces - including the most up to date military fighting vehicles, the newest tanks, new aircraft, very large numbers of artillery pieces - and the location (close to Kiev) was a clear coercive signal, once again, a 'threat display'. The timing was planned long in advance, and demonstrated masterful strategic patience and military-diplomatic 'pacing'. Russia fully controlled events. both military and diplomatic. The west found itself constantly in check.

Russia waited until the Ukraine was deeply in debt to both USA and the Europeans, it waited until many disguised western military personally were either dead or wounded, and the air defense batteries - including the patriot - destroyed. Russia waited until the Ukrainian military death and injury numbers were no longer possible to hide. Russia waited until it had the ability to produce an excess of war materiel of all kinds; Russia waited until its reserve troops had a chance to train on a real battlefield, using new weapons, tactics, and technologies. Russia waited until the previous President's term had expired and the Rada was the only remaining legitimate power. Russia waited until 'behind the scenes' talks with some of the Ukrainian power structures, both civil and high military, started to yield some results. Russia waited until many of the Ukrainian government's remaining white supremacist forces, in effect the 'Presidential guard', had to be sent into the Russian meatgrinder for destruction. Then Russia struck up it's coercive 'mega signal'. This time it was really high noon.

First, the President went to China. Then, in late May 2024, to Belarus, where Russian troops and tactical nuclear weapons are stationed.

"Alexander Lukashenko: You have probably noticed that we have been devoting a lot of time to defence and security issues lately. As earlier agreed, we discussed defence and security yesterday...

Vladimir Putin:This year we will mark two important anniversaries: they are July 3, when we will jointly celebrate the 80th anniversary of liberating Belarus from Nazi invaders. This is our common victory. We do remember what price we had to pay for it and we cherish the memory of our fathers, grandfathers and great- grandfathers, who defended the life and freedom for us and the generations to come. ..we have discussed at length the creation of a single defence state during the talks.

Advanced Russian defence systems and tactical nuclear weapons reliably cover the western borders of our countries and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. We reviewed the progress in the implementation of the instructions issued we issued on holding simultaneous exercises in Russia and Belarus to practice the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.

Alexander Lukashenko: ...The President of Russia has just said the main thing – we have created a joint force to defend the Union State.

We are continuously watching everything unfolding on our borders. We see this and know this, starting from the building of all kinds of fences to fuelling hysteria by exercises near our borders. As I said, about 90,000 foreign troops are taking part in them. It is truly surprising what the Americans, Germans and the rest are doing on our borders....We want to defend ourselves. How can we do it? We must know how to use these weapons. These are deadly, dangerous weapons...So we have to practice.

I frankly admitted that this is our third training session since the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. The Russians might have had dozens of such training sessions -–they did not publicise them before. ...We are doing everything they [Western countries] did before us and are doing now. They are training foreign pilots.

In part, the Americans are training German pilots in Germany to fly with nuclear weapons carriers – with bombs if they fly planes and with missiles.

We are not doing anything special, we are getting ready, undergoing training. We must be prepared. The world is unstable and dangerous. We cannot afford to miss this strike. We cannot afford to miss an attack as we did in the middle of the past century. We will not allow this to happen and they must know about this.But we are not fuelling tensions. We do not need war. Today we talked only about peaceful prospects....

....I am grateful to the President of Russia for including the head of the group of strategic initiatives in his delegation. He told us what is even hard to comprehend, but this is our near future. So we stand for peace but keep our powder dry.

Vladimir Putin:...after deploying part of Russia’s non-strategic nuclear potential to Belarus, we began holding joint exercises with our Belarusian allies. Second, we treat Belarus’s security the same way as the security of the Russian Federation And this is probably the central element of our cooperation in this area.....

..we are not doing anything unusual or anything that NATO doesn’t do. Mr Lukashenko has just said so. NATO countries regularly hold the same kind of exercises in areas where US tactical nuclear weapons are deployed, involving those countries’ military personnel, combat aircraft and other delivery vehicles.

What we are doing is a scheduled routine drill; I mean, we are not aiming for an escalation or anything, but, as we said, this needs to be practiced. This is a domain where we cannot allow any failures, mistakes, or incoherence..."
Vladimir Putin in conversation with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, 24 May 2024

The Lukashenko-Putin conversation was designed to signal to the west that the 90,000 troops on the border of Belarus (in particular) will not be allowed to do a 'blitzkrieg' ('Lightning War' of missiles, drones, aircraft, tanks and artillery along a narrow front) and invasion as happened in 1939 in Europe. If they enter Belarus will be obliterated with tactical nuclear weapons - in their depth, in Poland (as long as the wind is blowing the nuclear fallout into Poland and not into Belarus or Russia). In my opinion, this scenario is highly unlikely.

If a corridor in northern Ukraine is opened up for a lightning NATO run through middle Ukraine to Kiev and then beyond to Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad and Vinnytsya, (highly likely, in my opinion), then the situation is full of danger and ambiguity.  If NATO entered Odessa, Mykolayiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv  'buffer zone' oblasts, NATO will have potentially entered Novorussiyan oblasts where Russia may intend to test their political will for reunification back into Russia. Once again, this is a very dangerous step.

If NATO pushes into the 4 four partly Ukrainian occupied Russian oblasts, then, in accordance with the Belarus-Russia 'Union State' agreement, Belarus may open a new front against NATO-Ukraine on Ukraine's northern border, probably cutting the NATO line. Russia, in the meantime, will likely attack NATO force and logistic staging in their depth (Poland) with long range air and sea launched hypersonic missiles.  As NATO is then party to the conflict, command and control bases in Germany will also be destroyed. US satellites will likely be disabled or jammed. Russia would almost certainly provide air defense and electronic warfare defense to Belarus under a common command.

If NATO was thinking of an aggression into Belarus, expect a tactical nuclear weapon response. Stay home. Cancel your plan. If NATO was planning a lightning strike to Kiev and into oblasts absorbed into the Russian Federation, expect a decisive response. Stay home. Cancel the plan. Your forces and command will be long-reach destroyed with air and ship-launched missiles with conventional warheads. That was the first signal.

"...The situation evolves as it evolves. I think this year will determine much. We will wait and see; we are not in any rush, and less so is Russia. We have a common position; we are not hiding it and we will work together..."
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, in conversation with Vladimir Putin 24 May 2024

"We did not forbid anyone to negotiate, since we are in favour of negotiations...The discussions about the need to resume talks are back. Let them be back, ...but they must return on the basis of the principled agreements that had been reached during the difficult talks in Belarus and Turkiye, and on the basis of today’s realities on the ground. We are ready for this."
Vladimir Putin 24 May 2024

Russia will 'stay the course'. It will is on no particular timetable. But at the same time, if Ukraine comes to its senses, Russia is ready to negotiate terms. Until then, it will continue to destroy the NATO war materiel (and disguised NATO military personnel), and the Ukrainian armed forces. The objectives are unchanged - demilitarisation, denazification, liberation of Russian territory. That was the second signal.

"Who to negotiate with? This is certainly not an idle question, I agree. Of course, we realise that the current head of state is no longer legitimate... But if it comes to this, we, of course, must understand with whom we need and can deal with a view to signing legally binding documents. In this case, we must be absolutely sure that we are dealing with the legitimate authorities. This question must be answered in Ukraine itself, primarily, I think, by its parliament, the Constitutional Court or some other government authorities."
Vladimir Putin 24 May 2024

The Russian President stated clearly that no negotiations can happen until Ukrainian Parliament sorts out who is the legal head of Ukraine. No documents can be signed without a legally appointed State Executive. Whats more, he said that due to Ukraine's constitutional arrangements, Mr. Zelensky's orders are illegal, as are his directions to the military.
This was the third signal.

The next day, on the 25th of May 2024, President Putin had a meeting with heads of the defense industries, where he outlined the remarkable increase in war materiel.

"You are very well aware of the fact that we have substantially increased our output recently, over the last year and a half or two years, that is over the period of the special military operation. From 2021 to 2023 (these figures change constantly, they are increasing), the growth was more than 22 times for missile and artillery weapons, 15 times for electronic warfare and reconnaissance equipment, 14 times for ammunition and munitions, seven times for vehicles, six times for body armour equipment, four times for aviation equipment and unmanned aerial vehicles, and almost 3.5 times for tanks and armoured vehicles."
Vladimir Putin 25 May 2024

The fourth signal is, 'Russia has more than enough materiel for a war of attrition not just on Ukraine, but if necessary, on NATO participants in the conflict'.

On June 12 2024 the President convened what was stated as a 'late night meeting' with the Defense minister Andrei Belousov, Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Defence Minister Valery Gerasimov, and military district commanders where "Those present at the meeting reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on the progress of the special military operation and plans for continued action."

This fifth signal was designed to impart a sense of urgency - the Ukrainian politicians should sort their state affairs out and come to the table before the Russian juggernaut is switched on and the rest of Novorussia is taken - from Kharkiv to Odessa, perhaps even Sumy.

The sixth signal had two major components. On the 14th of June 2024 the Russian President outlined specific steps for a negotiated end to the conflict. There was nothing new here - the 4 territories must be emptied of Ukrainian troops, Ukraine must not have nuclear weapons, NATO cannot be allowed there, there will be security guarantees and so on - all those things agreed in the Istanbul agreement.

There are more subtle elements that received little public attention. They had already been introduced in a long, contorted, and obscure remark by President Lukashenko on the 24th of May in the Putin- Lukashenko press conference. He essentially said that current or future President, the Ukrainian presidency has no power, that all decisions on security - war or peace - are controlled by the west. He is referring, obliquely, to bilateral security agreements between not just Ukraine and Russia, but also European NATO member states (individual or collectively) and Russia. But that these types of indivisible security agreements won't be resolved until "later". Probably much later. This is the first element.

Mr. Lukashenko noted that while Russia and Belarus see groups in the Ukrainian polity whose "position we support and those whom we do not support" there are enough diverse opinions on the future of Ukraine to represent those who prefer endless war and those who prefer peace - but while Ukraine is a democracy, the Rada elections are due but postponed due to martial law. Yet there are "enough people there both among the military and civilians willing to head the country and lead it to war or against war in a new way". This implies either civilian, military, or combined revolt to take leadership outside the democratic process. He is pointing out that if that happens, it could be a power grab by peacewishers or warmongers. He is therefore signalling that if the majority of politicians want peace, the Rada will have to cancel martial law and let elections be held. This is the second element.

Russia also went to the Security Council on the 14th of June 2024 to brief the UN Security Council '... on threats to international peace and security caused by the green light of Western states to Kiev to use West-supplied weapons against the territory of Russia'. 

"We convened today's meeting because the situation around Ukraine has been following an increasingly dangerous scenario. Western countries are aiming for another round of escalation, which is fraught with catastrophic consequences.

The NATO Secretary General recently asserted that "the right to self-defense includes strikes on legitimate targets outside of Ukraine, and this is not an escalation.

Western countries...are directly involved in the Ukrainian crisis and maintain it in the "acute" phase in every possible way. ...Washington guides its European vassals from across the ocean, inciting them to a direct confrontation with Russia. And Europe...blindly follows Washington's course.

Western military control the use by Kiev of modern high-tech weapon systems, high-precision and long-range, whether it be the British Storm Shadow, the American ATACMS or French missiles, basically steering through this process in a manual mode. ..Ukrainian soldiers on the ground lack technological capability to operate these missiles, wherefore suppliers of those systems assign flight missions and upload them into the system....they also determine the final targets of the strikes. In other words, the fact that NATO countries are involved in the military actions in Ukraine and are complicit in the war crimes of the Kiev regime has long been well-known.

We will give a proper response to all these aggressive actions and all those involved in these crimes will be punished.

...European leaders appear to be getting increasingly out of touch. They seriously begin to dream of defeating Russia on the battlefield. Apparently, France and Germany have not learned the lessons of history...It points either to their complete lack of understanding of the scale of the threat they pose, or to their obsessive belief in their own impunity and exclusiveness....I would like to ask my Western colleagues if they realize that their leadership is actually pushing Europe to the brink of a new big war.

Zelensky, whose legitimacy is being questioned even inside Ukraine, directly declares that only Kiev should determine what peace would be like. Let me remind you that back in October 2022, he signed a decree banning negotiations with the Russian leadership.

We call on UN member states and the Secretariat not to get involved with the provocative and totally useless meeting in Bürgenstock and not to play bit parts in the clumsy anti-Russian intrigues of the West....

African countries, the Arab League, and Brazil have all put forward ideas that could serve as the beginning of a negotiation process. China has consistently shown a deep understanding of the root causes of the crisis. Unfortunately, Kiev and its sponsors are defiantly ignoring all these peace efforts and blatantly refuse to discuss them

... the Ukrainian armed forces are cowardly hunting civilians, destroying residential buildings, kindergartens, schools and hospitals. And Western countries, having momentarily forgotten about international humanitarian law, are facilitating this in every possible way. ...Spokesperson of the US Department of State, Matthew Miller, went to such lows as to state that allegedly "there are only military targets and no civilians in Belgorod, there are practically no civilians left there”.

On June 7, Ukrainian armed forces launched an attack with ATACMS that caused a section of a residential building in Lugansk to collapse, killing six people and injuring 60. On the same day, Ukrainian militants struck a store in the village of Sadovoye in the Kherson region at a time when a significant number of visitors and staff were gathered there. First they hit it with a guided bomb, then with HIMARS, killing 22 people. Lately, a Russian journalist, Valery Kozhin, a cameraman for the NTV television channel, was killed in Gorlovka and his colleagues were wounded. That was a precision strike...the United Nations Secretariat did not have the courage to name the guilty party and condemn this terrorist act.

The Kiev regime not only commits crimes against Russian citizens, but also destroys its own population. In the face of serious setbacks and losses on the battlefield, the Ukrainian armed forces are literally trying to plug the holes with forcibly conscripted men. Confident in their impunity, representatives of military commissions have opened a hunt for them, pulling them out of cars and public transportation. Healthy or sick, they are all deemed fit to go to the front.

...Ukrainian men are being systematically exterminated, Ukraine's industrial and agricultural assets are being sold off to foreign investors for next to nothing. There is no money to pay back on multimillion-dollar loans to international organizations. All thanks to the Western sponsors of the puppet Kiev regime. Having squeezed all juices out of Ukraine, they will throw it away to the dustbin of history..

We have repeatedly said that we are ready to discuss ways to establish lasting peace in Ukraine and Europe based on the realities on the ground and with due account for our security interests.

We have consistently demonstrated this – from the Minsk Package to the Istanbul Agreements, which failed to take place through the fault of the West. From the very first days, Russia put forward options for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, aimed not at freezing the conflict but at actually resolving it.

But our initiatives were ultimately rejected: the West and Kiev decided to try to defeat Russia. These attempts failed. 

Today, the President of the Russian Federation articulated another concrete peace proposal.

It is based on our principled position: the neutral non-aligned and non-nuclear status of Ukraine, its demilitarization and denazification, the full safeguarding of the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine, recognition of the new territorial realities and the status of Crimea, Sevastopol, the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

In the future, all these basic and principle-based provisions should be fixed in the form of fundamental international agreements. Naturally, this also implies the lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia.

We recognize the responsibility for stability in the world and reaffirm our readiness for dialogue with all countries, but this should not be an imitation of the peace process in order to serve someone else's vested interests, as in Bürgenstock, but a serious, detailed conversation on the whole range of global security issues.

If the West and Kiev refuse this peace proposal, they will bear the political and moral responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed. It is obvious that the realities on the ground, on the line of contact, will continue to change not in favor of the Kiev regime. And the conditions for the start of negotiations will then be different."
Vassily Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations 14 June 2024

Mr. Nebenzia repeated the elements of the President's peace offer, but Mr. Nebenzia's recitation included an outline of Russia's attempts to sign an agreement, the west's undermining of it. The fifth signal is that  the terrorist attack on non-combatant human life and property is the fault of the the Ukrainians and the west, and responsible individuals will be punished.
The sixth signal is that Germany and France must pull back from the increasingly large scale damage they fuel, as they are 'involved' in the conflict -signaling while they are not yet a party their escalations may end in the German and French arlies being embroiled in a conflict with the Russian military, with their inevitable defeat and consequent reparations payments.
The seventh signal is that the idea this could become a conflict frozen at the current line of contact of the armies is a fantasy.
The eighth signal is that in the medium to long run Russia will pursue a series of principal-based international agreements (probably bilateral) which will include prohibition on the use of illegal coercive economic measures. The recent Korean bilateral agreement is an example of such.
The ninth signal is that the conflict only continues due to the intentionally wrong acts of Ukraine and the west, and therefore ultimately they will have to pay damages (in some form or other) under international law.

Direct signals

Here it is made explicit by the diplomat that the words said are a signal of Russia's concerns, and a desire to meet to discuss proposals to overcome them.

While engaging in dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on the elaboration of concrete agreements that would rule out any further eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of weapons systems posing a threat to us in close proximity to Russia’s territory. We suggest that substantive talks on this topic should be started.

I would like to note in particular that we need precisely legal, juridical guarantees, because our Western colleagues have failed to deliver on verbal commitments they made. Specifically, everyone is aware of the assurances they gave verbally that NATO would not expand to the east. But they did absolutely the opposite in reality. In effect, Russia’s legitimate security concerns were ignored and they continue to be ignored in the same manner even now.

We are not demanding any special terms for ourselves. We understand that any agreements must take into account the interests of both Russia and all other states in the Euro-Atlantic region. A calm and stable situation should be ensured for everyone and is needed by all without exception.

That said, I would like to stress that Russia is interested precisely in constructive collaboration and in equitable international cooperation, and this remains the central tenet of Russian foreign policy.

 I hope that you will convey this signal to the leaders of your states.
Vladimir Putin 1 December 2021

Epochal change signals (Added 21 June 2024)

It became obvious even by late November 2023 that Ukraine would have to surrender sooner rather than later. President Putin sent a strong signal to the world - don't you ever do this again. The world has changed, the global majority have pivoted geopolitically in the most dramatic fashion. What the west 'got away with' in the past will never be tolerated in the future. An 'enduring' signal is a 'meta' signal, a signal that from now on there will be more signals in the same vein; which are really continually strengthening repeated warnings, mainly in the form of a series of individually negotiated bilateral security agreements. Each will have its own enforcement terms, which will contain within the text warnings 'signals' to other parties, but veiled in apparently standard boilerplate diplomatic language.

"We know the threat we are opposing. Russophobia and other forms of racism and neo-Nazism have almost become the official ideology of Western ruling elites. They are directed not only against ethnic Russians, but against all groups living in Russia: Tatars, Chechens, Avars, Tuvinians, Bashkirs, Buryats, Yakuts, Ossetians, Jews, Ingush, Mari and Altai. There are many of us, I might not be able to name every group now, but again, the threat is directed against all the peoples of Russia.

The West has no need for such a large and multi-ethnic country as Russia as a matter of principle. Our diversity and unity of cultures, traditions, languages, and ethnicities simply do not fit into the logic of Western racists and colonisers, into their cruel plans for total depersonalisation, separation, suppression, and exploitation. That is why they have started their old rant again: they say that Russia is a “prison of nations” and that Russians are a “nation of slaves.” We have heard this many times throughout the centuries. Now we have also heard that Russia apparently needs to be “decolonised.”

But what do they really want? They want to dismember and plunder Russia. If they cannot do it by force, they sow discord.

I would like to emphasise that we view any outside interference or provocations to incite ethnic or religious conflict as acts of aggression against our country, and an attempt to once again wield terrorism and extremism as a weapon against us, and we will respond accordingly...

The bloody conflicts that emerged after the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union not only continue to smoulder but sometimes flare up with renewed energy. These wounds will not be healed for a long time.We will never forget these mistakes and should not repeat them.

I would like to emphasise once again – any attempt to sow ethnic or religious discord, to split our society is betrayal, a crime against all of Russia. We will never allow anyone to divide Russia – the only country we have. "
Vladimir Putin 28 November 2023

Symbolic signalling edited 02 October 2024

'Signals' can be symbolic - what statues are present in the background to a meeting, and what do they represent? Green military teeshirts worn by the Ukrainian President indicated a willingness to resist, a commitment. These signals were taken to extremes - such hyper-military signals were worn by himself and officials even in top level diplomatic contacts around the world. Then, as it became obvious in early November 2023 that western money might dry up and the Ukrainian resistance was crumbling, Mr. Zelensky wore a black Teeshirt in a public address aimed at a western audience. The symbolic signal is obvious. Defeat. The US government Director of the Office of Management and Budget noted US funding for Ukraine will run out by the end of 2023. The US government then 'found' more funding, the EU agreed to give 50 million euros, and the Zelensky teeshirt turned green again.

Symbolic signals can include the place of delivery of a speech, or the date on which a speech or other 'communication' (written, oratorical - or physical) is delivered.

"We did our best to dissuade the Americans from withdrawing from the treaty [Note: the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty]. All in vain. The US pulled out of the treaty in 2002. Even after that we tried to develop constructive dialogue with the Americans. We proposed working together in this area to ease concerns and maintain the atmosphere of trust.

At one point, I thought that a compromise was possible, but this was not to be. All our proposals, absolutely all of them, were rejected...

...we have repeatedly told our American and European partners who are NATO members: we will make the necessary efforts to neutralise the threats posed by the deployment of the US global missile defence system.

We mentioned this during talks, and even said it publicly...we made no secret of our plans and spoke openly about them, primarily to encourage our partners to hold talks..nobody really wanted to talk to us about the core of the problem, and nobody wanted to listen to us. So listen now..  "

The President of Russia delivered the Address to the Federal Assembly. The ceremony took place at the Manezh Central Exhibition Hall.
Vladimir Putin Presidential Address to the Russian Federal Assembly.1 March 2018

 The Manezh Central Exhibition Hall was built in 1817 in honor of 5 years anniversary of victory over Napoleon.

In early October 2024 Iran launched a retaliatory missile strike on Israeli military, calling it 'Operation True Promise 2'.  What was 'Operation True Promise 1'? It was when Hezbollah drove Israel out of Lebanon. Operation 'True promise 2' took place just as Israel commenced an incursion into southern Lebanon in an effort to seize the territory permanently. The signal is obvious.

Ultimatums

"We are always ready to search for a solution. Needless to say, our positions will never coincide completely, but we are always ready to seek a balance of interests and mutually acceptable solutions. The threats and ultimatums that are now used in relations with us will not produce the desired results."
Sergey Lavrov 12 April 2019 

"...there was not a single NATO-Russia Council meeting that took place without an attempt, in the form of an ultimatum, to impose on us a discussion of the Ukrainian problems in this format. We always answer...that NATO has nothing to do with Ukraine."
Sergey Lavrov 17 February 2020

"Not all Ukrainians are naive. They were fully aware of the fact that an ultimatum these days, especially with Russia, is an utterly senseless proposition....If the West (this is not about Zelensky) is truly interested in normalising the situation in Europe...we should sit down for talks without clutching pieces of paper that read “Zelensky’s formula” and start having candid talks."
Sergey Lavrov 24 August 2024

Ultimatums don't work on Russia. And Russia's ultimatums should not be ignored. Russia drafted a US - Russia Security Treaty agreement in December 2021 and presented it to the US and all NATO member countries. When asked what would happen if NATO refused to sign, the reply was that the issue would be solved by "military-technical means". This is tantamount to war, even if that word is not used.

"...our contacts with our Western colleagues were mostly aimed at explaining and promoting the initiative of President of Russia Vladimir Putin which he voiced for the first time at an expanded meeting of the Foreign Ministry’s Collegium and repeated yesterday in the Kremlin...

This initiative notes the need to draft guarantees for preventing the further aggravation of the situation and stopping the creation of new threats for the Russian Federation.

Specifically...not to allow NATO’s further eastward expansion or the deployment of new weapons systems on Russia’s western borders, which would threaten the Russian Federation’s security. ...Today, I stressed the fact that we are interested in agreements heeding security interests of all countries without exception. We don’t want any unilateral privileges. ..

We will insist that these agreements be examined seriously, that they should not be shrugged off and rejected, as our Western colleagues have done many times. This includes their promises regarding the non-expansion of NATO. During the reunification of Germany, an agreement was reached with the German Democratic Republic that no military infrastructure would be deployed in East Germany. The same was stated in the Russia-NATO Founding Act and many other documents. The West ignored everything that took on the form of political obligations.

Therefore, we insist that agreements mentioned by President Putin, whose conclusion we will demand, should be legally binding and obligatory for all parties.

We will send the relevant proposals to our Western colleagues in the near future, and we expect them to treat this matter in earnest...."
Sergey Lavrov 2 December 2021

"At the OSCE, the West at the highest level committed to the indivisibility of security, which implies that nobody should promote their security at the expense of the security of others, and that no country or group of countries or an organisation could lay claim to domination in Europe. This was signed in 2010.

Since then, NATO has grown even more brazen.

When we suggested that this political document, signed among others by US President Barack Obama, should be converted to a legally binding agreement, they said “no.”

We told them that they had signed it.

To this, they replied that it was a “political promise” (my goodness, a “promise” signed by presidents), while legal guarantees could only be obtained from NATO.

Speaking on February 24, 2022, President of Russia Vladimir Putin again explained our position in detail.

The Russian ambassadors received this text.

They were instructed to meet with the leaders of relevant states and explain our position. This is what we did.

The West denounced us publicly to the entire world. Decent people and especially democrats should have stopped at that.

Russia explained its motives and the West offered its judgment.

So, let us regard all others as grown-up and upright people, who have the full right to make their own decisions based on the appraisals of both parties. But they are not allowed to do so. Not only do they [the West] set out their position, they accompany this with directives on what should or should not be done.
Sergey Lavrov 8 September 2023

The word 'ultimatum' comes from the latin ultimatus 'the last one; final' is usually the last step, a final warning after a series of steps that might involve persuasion, argument, negotiation, that clearly indicates that the matter is now at an end, the time for negotiation has passed, and now an unwanted and probably unpleasant consequence will be played out. In the diplomatic context, it is the final terms set out to settle a matter.

Russia's ultimatums are deadly serious, in every sense of that phrase. They should be understood as statement of consequences that will happen if a certain thing is done. Russians appear to regard issuing of 'threats' as a very weak position. They only issue promises, indications of a future reality if their advanced notice is not taken seriously. Even so, they are always willing to compromise as long as what they refer to as "a balance of interests" is achieved. But it takes two equals to tango.

Once military-technical means were commenced - block NATO from Ukraine and destroy the NATO proxy army on Russia's border -  the west escalated the conflict again and again, Russia step by step continued to signal all its red lines and its intentions. The west commenced a series of dangerous adventures whereby depleted uranium would be spread on Ukrainian territory and Russia blamed for the frame-up. This triggered a series of hurried - almost frantic - diplomatic 'consultations' by the British with their American masters, fully documented by me here. This wasn't signalling. The West was almost certainly given an ultimatum. The west was advised of what consequences the west faced if they carried out this plan, a plan that seems to have been developed by the British, but almost certainly with US government support.

The west backed down. Truss resigned. Johnson promised not to run for re-election.

Drawing a line, red lines, line in the sand  Last edited 8November 2024

This diplomatic 'message' is understood by all diplomats to say "You have gone far enough. Any further is too far. We will respond with strong measures if you continue." 

The advantage of the 'red line' is that the other side doesn't know what 'strong measures' you will take. End diplomatic contact? Put a trade embargo in place? Make a military attack on your military or your infrastructure? Make a cyberattack? Snap a subsea cable? Blind a satellite? When will this response come? How long will it last?

The danger of the 'red line' communication is that the other side will think you are bluffing, and call your bluff. But Russia doesn't bluff

The USA 'calls Russia's bluff' consistently, partly because it has a strategy of risk-taking, and partly because it is under the delusion that it can predict Russia's behaviour  - always, and always accurately. In spite of acknowledging it may well be wrong.

"No strategy will perfectly anticipate the threats we may face, and we will doubtless confront challenges in execution. In developing this strategy, the Department considered the risks stemming from inaccurate predictions, including unforeseen shocks in the security environment. Chief among these:
The rate at which a competitor modernizes its military, and the conditions under which competitor aggression manifests, could be different than anticipated.
Our threat assessments may prove to be either over-or underestimated.
We might fail to anticipate which technologies and capabilities may be employed and change our relative military advantage..In service of our strategic priorities, we will accept measured risk."
USA National Defense Strategy October 27 2022

"Measured"? Is it realistically possible? Probably it works - most of the time.

But the one time it doesn't work might be critical, especially when you are dealing with a nuclear power with superior technology. The US is willing to try to coerce Russia militarily, and yet "accept measured risk" when, by it's own admission, it's analyses might be wrong. It is axiomatic that you don't take even small risks to achieve a minor objective when the consequences might be catastrophic. To do so is mad.

"The Americans started preparing the current crisis long ago, right after the end of the Cold War, having decided that the way to global hegemony was then open. NATO's eastward expansion has been one of the key components of such a course. We tried hard to convince them not to do this. We showed where and why our red lines are drawn. We were flexible, ready to make concessions and look for compromises. All this proved futile."
Sergey Lavrov 14 May 2022

"Ukraine joining NATO is out of question. This transcends the red line concept. It’s just impossible."
Sergey Lavrov 31 August 2024

When creating threats to Russia, adversaries need to understand that if they ignore Rissia's warnings (red lines) and put the Russian state at risk, they will receive blunt and rock-solid ultimatums. Russia is very transparent in it's foreign policy. They almost always publicly say what will happen if another state does something that their current moves seem to indicate it is on that state's mind. (Sometimes behind closed doors) There are no hidden agendas, and Russia extremely rarely lies (the USA government, in strong contrast, uses the lie technique all the time).

"As for the Polish leaders, they probably hope to form a coalition under the NATO umbrella in order to directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine and to bite off as much as possible, to “regain,” as they see it, their historical territories, that is, modern-day Western Ukraine. It is also common knowledge that they dream about Belarusian land.

Regarding the policy of the Ukrainian regime, it is none of our business. If they want to relinquish or sell off something in order to pay their bosses, as traitors usually do, that’s their business. We will not interfere.

But Belarus is part of the Union State, and launching an aggression against Belarus would mean launching an aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond to that with all the resources available to us."
Vladimir Putin 21 July 2023   

But Russia doesn't rush to react when a nuclear power crosses its red lines. It reacts later, and generally in an asymmetrical way - that it is, a military move against Russia might be answered by an economic move. And as Russia has a very flexible foreign policy, it may be willing to cancel a response if evolving conditions are favorable to its interests. In other words, it is sometimes willing to 'take one on the chin' if an immediate response would ultimately make its position worse, or inhibit an evolving favorable development (this is an element of Russia's foreign policy of strategic patience).

But if an evolving course of action seems to indicate the possibility of an attack on Russia's Union State partner (Belarus), then the appropriate diplomatic term for 'war without limit' is given. The most important word in the phrase "all the resources available to us" is the first word, "all", as, obviously, it does not exclude nuclear weapons. Equally obviously, Poland is a NATO member, and if other NATO members involve themselves in assisting Poland respond to Russia's defense then they, too become a party to Poland's war. This will include USA. Russia's recent shift in its doctrine on interpretation of article 51 of the UN Charter allows Russia to launch a pre-emptive strike if an attack on Russia is imminent.

Question: How would you explain the growth in tension over Ukraine?

Sergey Ryabkov: It is primarily Washington’s geopolitical project, an attempt to expand its sphere of influence by getting new instruments for strengthening its positions, which Washington hopes will eventually allow it to dominate this region. It is also a way of creating problems for us by endangering our security.

We have openly pointed out that there are red lines which we will not allow anyone to cross, and we also have certain requirements, which have been formulated exceedingly clearly.

I believe everyone is aware of the signal President Vladimir Putin issued that Moscow needs maximally reliable legal guarantees of security.

The President has instructed the Foreign Ministry to thoroughly address this matter. We are doing this. In particular, we are preparing definitive proposals and ideas, which we will submit for consideration by the Americans, and possibly their allies.

Question: Is it possible to mark red lines jointly with the United States?

Sergey Ryabkov: I believe that this is inherently impossible. There is such a wide gap in our approaches to international affairs and priorities in the so-called Euro-Atlantic that common red lines are unthinkable.

There is only one red line we have marked jointly, which is very good. I am referring to the unacceptability of a nuclear war. By adopting the relevant statement issued by our leaders last June, Russia and the United States pointed out that they are aware of their joint responsibility. There will be no winners in a nuclear war, which must never be waged. This has been emphasised most definitely. I believe that this is a major positive factor during the current alarming period in international relations.

As for geopolitical red lines, no, we are rivals and opponents in this sense, and we will not suggest that the Americans do anything like this.

We will demand that they do not cross our red lines, which we mark based on our national interests."

Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister, 13 December 2021

When Mr. Ryabkov referred to "...red lines which we will not allow anyone to cross". These lines are reflected in the draft EU/US/RU security treaty, and are primarily concerned with "indivisible security" for all states.  You can read the text of the draft treaty on my site here. Articles 1, 2, and 3 are the essence, in my opinion.

Article 1
The Parties shall cooperate on the basis of principles of indivisible, equal and undiminished security and to these ends:

shall not undertake actions nor participate in or support activities that affect the security of the other Party;

shall not implement security measures adopted by each Party individually or in the framework of an international organization, military alliance or coalition that could undermine core security interests of the other Party.

"The U.S. and NATO responses to our proposals received on 26 January 2022 demonstrate serious differences in the understanding of the principle of equal and indivisible security that is fundamental to the entire European security architecture.

We believe it is necessary to immediately clarify this issue, as it will determine the prospects for future dialogue.

The Charter for European Security signed at the OSCE Summit in Istanbul in November 1999 formulated key rights and obligations of the OSCE participating States with respect to indivisibility of security. It underscored the right of each participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements including treaties of alliances, as they evolve, as well as the right of each State to neutrality.

The same paragraph of the Charter directly conditions those rights on the obligation of each State not to strengthen its security at the expense of the security of other States.

It says further that no State, group of States or Organization can have any pre-eminent responsibility for maintaining peace and stability in the OSCE area or can consider any part of the OSCE area as its sphere of influence.

At the OSCE Summit in Astana in December 2010, the leaders of our nations approved a declaration that reaffirmed this comprehensive package of interconnected obligations.

However, the Western countries continue to pick up out of it only those elements that suit them, and namely – the right of States to be free to choose alliances for ensuring exclusively their own security. The words ‘as they evolve’ are shamefacedly omitted, because this provision was also an integral part of the understanding of ‘indivisible security’, and specifically in the sense that military alliances must abandon their initial deterrence function and integrate into the all-European architecture based on collective approaches, rather than as narrow groups.

The principle of indivisible security is selectively interpreted as a justification for the ongoing course toward irresponsible expansion of NATO.

It is revealing that Western representatives, while expressing their readiness to engage in dialogue on the European security architecture, deliberately avoid making reference to the Charter for European Security and the Astana Declaration in their comments.

They mention only earlier OSCE documents, particularly often – the 1990 Charter of Paris for a New Europe that does not contain the increasingly ‘inconvenient’ obligation not to strengthen own security at the expense of the security of other States.

Western capitals also attempt to ignore a key OSCE document – the 1994 Code of Conduct on Politico-Military Aspects of Security, which clearly says that the States will choose their security arrangements, including membership in alliances, ‘bearing in mind the legitimate security concerns of other States’.

It will not work that way. The very essence of the agreements on indivisible security is that either there is security for all or there is no security for anyone.

The Istanbul Charter provides that each OSCE participating State has equal right to security, and not only NATO countries that interpret this right as an exceptional privilege of membership in the ‘exclusive’ North Atlantic club...

...Discussing the present situation in Europe, our colleagues from the United States, NATO and the European Union make constant appeals for ‘de-escalation’ and call on Russia to ‘choose a path of diplomacy’. We want to remind: we have been moving along that path for decades. The key milestones, such as the documents of the Istanbul and Astana summits, are exactly the direct result of diplomacy. The very fact that the West now tries to revise to its benefit these diplomatic achievements of the leaders of all OSCE countries raises serious concern. The situation demands a frank clarification of positions."
Sergey Lavrov 01 February 2022 

"Article 1 of the Russian treaty proposed that one state, like the Ukraine, cannot be armed, financed, and supported by the US or NATO to threaten the security of Russia, according to the “principles of indivisible, equal and undiminished security”.

US agreement to the principle of “indivisible security” was signed twice – in Istanbul in 1999 and again in Astana in 2010.  In the Blinken paper this is admitted. He then adds two qualifiers – “our respective interpretations of that concept” and “[it] cannot be viewed in isolation”.

This means that Blinken interprets the indivisibility of security in Europe by dividing it into the NATO-Ukrainian version, and the Russian version."
John Helmer, Dances with Bears - 'Blinken's Booby Traps', 06 February 2022 

"I have previously stated that we have reached red lines. The West’s calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, a nation with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, reveal the reckless adventurism of certain Western politicians. Such blind faith in their own impunity and exceptionalism could lead to a global catastrophe."
Vladimir Putin 7 November 2024

"As for the {EU] states saying that they have no ”red lines“ with Russia, they should realise that Russia will have no ”red lines“ with them either."
Vladimir Putin 13 March 2024


"Macron has said, "there are no more red lines, there are no more limits" in terms of supporting Ukraine (Le Monde). Then that means, Russia has no more red lines left for France.

In hostem omina licita."
Dmitry Medvedev 8 March 2024

Article 2

The Parties shall seek to ensure that all international organizations, military alliances and coalitions in which at least one of the Parties is taking part adhere to the principles contained in the Charter of the United Nations.

Article 3

The Parties shall not use the territories of other States with a view to preparing or carrying out an armed attack against the other Party or other actions affecting core security interests of the other Party.

"Importantly, our Western partners are ... conducting provocative military exercises in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders. With regard to the Black Sea, this even goes beyond certain limits since strategic bombers, which carry very serious weapons, fly at a distance of only 20 kilometres from our state border.

Indeed, we constantly express our concerns about these matters and talk about red lines, but of course, we understand that our partners are peculiar in the sense that they have a very – how to put it mildly – superficial approach to our warnings about red lines.

Nevertheless, our recent warnings have had a certain effect: tensions have arisen there anyway.

In this regard, I have two points to make. First, it is important for them to remain in this state for as long as possible, so that it does not occur to them to stage some kind of conflict on our western borders which we do not need, we do not need a new conflict.

Second, Mr Lavrov, it is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security in this area, because Russia cannot constantly be thinking about what could happen there tomorrow."
Vladimir Putin November 18 2021 

"We really want to maintain good relations with all those engaged in international communication, including, by the way, those with whom we have not been getting along lately, to put it mildly. We really do not want to burn bridges.

But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia's response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough.

Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time.

At the same time, I just have to make it clear, we have enough patience, responsibility, professionalism, self-confidence and certainty in our cause, as well as common sense, when making a decision of any kind. But I hope that no one will think about crossing the “red line” with regard to Russia. We ourselves will determine in each specific case where it will be drawn"
Vladimir Putin  April 21, 2021


"With regard to the red lines [regarding Ukraine bombing civilian areas in Donetsk - Ed.], let me keep this to myself, because on our part it will include fairly tough actions targeted at the decision-making centres that you and I mentioned. Still, the country’s military-political leadership should be in the lead on making those decisions.
The individuals who deserve actions of that level coming their way from us should realise what they may be facing if they cross these lines.
The attacks on residential areas are, of course, a crime against humanity. This is a humanitarian problem, which I am sure will be overcome."
Vladimir Putin 17 June 2022 

"President Putin said this clearly in his Address, pointing out that Russia is always open to broad international agreements if they suit our interests. But we will harshly respond to any attempts to cross the red line, which we ourselves will determine."
Sergey Lavrov 28 April 2021

"I hope that in preparation for the summit, those who are now dealing with Russia in the Biden administration...will finally appreciate the actions, interests and position of the Russian Federation, and our red lines, and will be willing to correct the mistakes in recent years and will not conduct a dialogue solely from a position that claims hegemony in global affairs."
Sergey Lavrov 9 June 2021

"...we spent many years setting out our “red lines” for the West with utmost consistency and clarity. Everyone knows this. We pointed out that we refused to accept what was going on along our borders, not somewhere far away.

There were attacks against the Russian language, Russian culture, Russian journalists, including killings. They moved NATO closer to our borders. Romania and Poland have joined NATO. In recent years, they set their sights on Moldova and Ukraine. We told the West that drawing our closest neighbours into their war games was unacceptable.

We also drew the attention of the West to what has been going on in Ukraine for many years. We were told that there is no Russophobia there, no Nazism, but at the same time, Petr Poroshenko’s Prime Minister, Arseny Yatsenyuk, referred to people in Donbass as sub-humans. Even Vladimir Zelensky called them “animal species” last year, when asked what he thought about people living in Donbass, even though the Minsk Agreements were still in force at the time. He said that there were people, and there were animal species, adding that if someone in Ukraine has a Russian identity, they better get the hell out of Ukraine and move to the Russian Federation for the sake of their children and grandchildren. This is what he said in September 2021. We pointed this out to the West, but there was no response, no sign that they viewed this as unacceptable.

In this context, the question is what were you doing out there while ignoring our pleas regarding the direct threats to our security right along our borders? What kind of interests were you defending in Iraq or in Libya? Did anyone mistreat your compatriots or fellow citizens over there? Has anyone banned the English language, or French, or German? Nothing of this sort.
Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister 13 December 2021

"Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us.

Of course, the question is not about NATO itself. It merely serves as a tool of US foreign policy.

The problem is that in territories adjacent to Russia, which I have to note is our historical land, a hostile “anti-Russia” is taking shape.

Fully controlled from the outside, it is doing everything to attract NATO armed forces and obtain cutting-edge weapons.

For the United States and its allies, it is a policy of containing Russia, with obvious geopolitical dividends.

For our country, it is a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a nation.

This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty.

It is the red line which we have spoken about on numerous occasions. They have crossed it.
Vladimir Putin 24 February 2022

Ilya Ushenin: "Mr President, I am Ilya Ushenin from NTV. I have a question about the notorious red lines. Clearly, in the SMO zone, we are at war not just with the Kiev regime, but with the so-called collective West as well. NATO countries are constantly moving and crossing our red lines. We express our concern and keep saying that this is unacceptable, but never come up with actual answers.

Are we going to keep moving our red lines?"

Vladimir Putin: "Listen, is the special military operation itself not a response to them crossing these lines? This is the first and the most important point.

We said many times “Do not do this, let's do that, we are ready for talks.” In the end, they prompted us to try to use force to end the war that they started in 2014. They keep telling us, “You started the war, Putin is the aggressor.”

No, they are the aggressors, they started this war, and we are trying to stop it, but we are compelled to do so with the use of the Armed Forces. Is this not the answer to their crossing the red lines? This is my first point.

Second...Are strikes on Ukraine’s energy system not an answer to them crossing the red lines?

And the destruction of the headquarters of the main intelligence directorate of the armed forces of Ukraine outside Kiev, almost within Kiev’s city limits, is it not the answer? It is.

We will continue to work selectively. We will not do what these halfwits are doing when they target civilian sites and residential areas. Of course, we will not do this. We will continue to provide selective responses."
Vladimir Putin June 13 2023

Three weeks later, on the 5th of July, Russia published information about two diplomatic protest notes and warnings (demarches) given to the USA embassy in Moscow. The public information note was titled "US involvement in the conflict in Ukraine". It was an attempt to coerce the USA to stop what they are doing. It was also a very clear warning.

"On September 15, 2022 and February 21, 2023, the Foreign Ministry made demarches with protest notes to the US Embassy in Moscow in connection with numerous facts of the direct involvement of US citizens, including retired and active military personnel, in hostilities as part of formations subordinate to the Kiev regime.

Russian officials said the arms supplied to the Kiev regime and the personnel servicing them were regarded as lawful targets for destruction.

We emphasised that to avoid negative consequences, the United States should immediately withdraw its military personnel, discontinue arms supplies and stop providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with guidance in real time for striking the deployment sites of the Armed Forces of Russia and civilians.

Russian officials made it perfectly clear to the Americans that the abetting the mass war crimes committed by Ukrainian formations is confirmed by objective evidence that cuts through the standard arrogant official explanations...

...The Pentagon and NATO structures are also supplying Kiev with the full range of intelligence information while NATO officials plan and directly command operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine...

 ...In public statements, Biden administration officials are justifying strikes on Russian territory...

...in November 2022 the US Department of Defence formed new headquarters within the United States European Command (Wiesbaden, Germany) called Security Assistance Group - Ukraine (SAG-U), staffed by 300 US Army officers. Its main tasks include organising supplies of Western-made weapons to Kiev and training Ukrainian troops at US training ranges and on the territory of its European partners, as well as sharing intelligence with the military leadership of Ukraine. US officers process and transmit in real time information about the movement of Russian troops, which is obtained with the help of Western technical means of surveillance. A separate subdivision in charge of special operations, including the organisation of clandestine and sabotage activities, has been created in conjunction with the Security Assistance Group.

Washington and its allies widely use space and aerial reconnaissance assets to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with information about the Russian Armed Forces. The orbital constellation includes about 450 satellites, most of which are commercial Earth remote sensing and radiotechnical monitoring satellites. They provide high-frequency observation of target areas, accurate identification of reconnaissance objects, and interception of messages sent by radio communication channels. In the interest of detailed strike planning, three-dimensional digital models of targets and surrounding terrain are compiled and refined on the basis of the US and allied intelligence, and optimum routes for UAV missiles to bypass Russian air defence zones are developed.

In addition to space systems, reconnaissance aircraft and UAVs, which perform daily flights from air bases in Great Britain, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania and Türkiye, are widely used to monitor the situation. The headquarters of the US forces in Europe and NATO forces use the data obtained by space and aviation means to carry out a comprehensive analysis of Russian troop movements and developments in the area of the special military operation. Transmission of the processed data to the Armed Forced of Ukraine is carried out via available telecom lines (satellite, radio relay, cellular, fiber-optic and internet). An important role is assigned to the US commercial satellite communications system Starlink.

At the hearings in US Congress as early as in March 2022, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, Director of the Defence Intelligence Agency, described the exchange of information between Washington and Kiev as “unprecedented.” In turn, General Paul Nakasone, Director of the National Security Agency and Head of the US Cyber Command, said at the same hearings that throughout his service he had not seen a better exchange of accurate, relevant and actionable intelligence information. He emphasised that the Pentagon was supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the latest information.

On April 22, 2022, NBC News published online an article “US intel helped Ukraine protect air defences, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops.” Citing current and former US officials, NBC News wrote: “As Russia launched its invasion, the US gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defences and aircraft out of harm’s way.” It noted that this “near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv....

...the Armed Forces of Ukraine had received information from the US Defence Intelligence Agency on targets for missile and artillery strikes in the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics and the liberated regions, the movement of Russian troops and data on the vulnerabilities of the Russian Armed Forces.

On December 21, 2022, the Wall Street Journal carried an article entitled “US Has Eased Intelligence-Sharing Rules to Help Ukraine Target Russians.” It said that the US had been providing Kiev “reams of data on the location and movements of Russian troops and equipment and other battlefield information under a vastly expanded intelligence-sharing arrangement.” 

On February 9, 2023, the Washington Post published an article on how the Armed Forces of Ukraine had attacked targets following guidance from the US. It cited a comment by Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Patrick Ryder. “We have long acknowledged that we share intelligence with Ukraine… and we have optimised over time how we share information to be able to support their requests and their targeting processes at improved speed and scale.”

A document by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff of February 15, 2023, analysed how the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked Russian targets with US JDAM guided air-to-surface weapons. This is also evidence of the Pentagon’s direct participation in the preparation and planning of such strikes.

 According to the Pentagon’s leaks published online (for instance, by Politico on April 14, 2023), there are about 100 representatives of the US Defence Department in Ukraine, including employees of its central office, intelligence centres and units of task forces and radioelectronic intelligence.

Late last April, the United States Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) sent to Ukraine a task force of 43 experts to help Kiev under the programme of Hunt Forward Operations. Major General William Hartman, commander of the USCYBERCOM Cyber National Mission Force, reported this at the RSA Conference held in San Francisco, CA, on April 24-27, 2023. According to leaks in the media, the US Special Operations Command supervises the work of the centres of information and psychological operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In turn, the Pentagon’s Cyber Command and the National Security Agency are planning and coordinating cyberattacks under the Ukrainian flag at Russia’s critical information infrastructure. The key targets include Russian banks and financial institutions, transport, energy and telecommunications infrastructure, large industrial facilities and network resources providing government services at federal and regional levels. Ukrainian hacker groups affiliated with US intelligence agencies are actively involved in these attacks."
Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation 5 July 2023 

Once again, the USA foreign policy is to walk right up to the edge of the precipice, ignore all red lines. Coercive moves taken to the extreme - and the Americans call this 'measured risk taking'.

I have to wonder if this reckless risk-taking might be part of a slowly unfolding US government plan to create a sense of immenent danger, so that Mr. Biden can create a 'statesman moment' like Kennedy did, contacting his partner and averting disaster at the last moment. This US-staged dramatic theater, will, of course, be timed to happen just before the US Presidential election. (Notice that the major NATO exercises on Russia's border ended in May, and the US election is in early November 2024). Mr. Biden will emerge with the rosy glow of the man who saved the world from nuclear catastrophe. The USA has to have some pretext to yeild to Russia's ultimatum - sign a mutual security agreement, or you can forget about arms control agreements.

Constant red line risk-taking can be attrited by Russia - up to a point

In late December 2023 Russia destroyed Ukrainian military targets and "decision making centers" in Kharkov (primarily at the re-purposed Kharkov Palace Hotel) in retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on civilians in Belgorod, Russia. Not only were "military personnel" killed, so were Ukrainian intelligence operatives and 200 foreign mercenaries who were beiing trained to carry out 'terrorist" attacks across the border into Russia. A second high precision missile strike hit the headquarters of Ukrainian intelligence in Kharkov, killing "special service officials", more mercenaries and foreign 'volunteers' who Russia alleges were preparing for conducting sabotage attacks within Russia. It is possible that NATO special service personnel or other military personnel who had 'joined' the Ukrainian army were also killed or wounded.

In January 2023 Konstantin Gavrilov, head of the Russian delegation to the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control bluntly warned: 

"If Washington and NATO countries provide Kiev with weapons for striking against the cities deep inside the Russian territory and for attempting to seize our constitutionally affirmed territories, it would force Moscow to undertake harsh retaliatory actions. Do not say that we did not warn you...”
Konstantin Gavrilov 2023

France, being slow to learn the Russian red lines, re-supplied Ukraine with expert mercenaries - probably some of the most brutal active and former foreign legion personnel.

"On the evening of 16 January [2024], Russian missiles hit a building in Kharkov that had been converted into a major center for high-level European (mostly French) mercenaries. It was a devastating blow, with at least 60 killed and 20 wounded...

...There has been a major influx of high quality mercenaries with special skill sets in the last few months. The reason for this increase in foreign professional soldiers was to replace the Ukrainian special forces who were almost completely wiped out in the Ukrainian failed "summer offensive", as well as to try to make a desperate...attempt to forestall the inevitable Russian offensive.

These elite mercenaries are also some of the most vicious war criminals in this war, used as blocking troops, specialists in torture and terrorist tactics, who have trained the likes of Azov and Pravy Sektor Nazis. This is reflected in the fact that almost 600 foreign mercenaries have been charged with specific war crimes by Russian prosecutors, and obviously, this number will only increase."
Russell Bentley, American-Russian former Militia member 18 January 2024

As Mr. Bentley points out, "elite operators" from NATO countries came to Ukraine right from the very start of the conflict - but they kept a very low profile.

But more importantly about the same time, France supplied Ukraine with long range weapons, weapons that require considerable technical expertise to operate. These weapons also carried cluster munitions, and are capable of causing many civilian casualties. In other words, as military targets are well defended, the primary purpose of these mssiles is to terrorise Russias civilian population.

Pierre Levy, the French ambassador to Russia was called to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where, allegedly over a period of hours he was given incontrovertible proof French army personnel are involved in attacks on Russia. They were likely 'signed up' to the Ukrainian army, but this stupid sham will no longer be accepted. The Russian protest over this behaviour most likely included an outline of further steps Russia will take if French 'NATO staff in drag' appear again.

On Sunday 21st January 2024, in a clear act of state terrorism, Ukraine fired at least 4 NATO provided 152 mm and 155 mm shells into a Sunday morning market in the Donetsk region. Again, there are no military targets there, just a busy Sunday morning stall-holder market. 28 civilians were killed and even more wounded.

All we need is Germany to do something equally stupid, and the whole set of the instigators of the proxy war will have breached the Russian red lines So far, Germany has refused to supply long range missiles. So far.

Perhaps they will use the January 2024 NATO 'exercise' to provoke some sort of incursion, perhaps into western Ukraine.This would add to the drama, and allow the NATO  group to also sign Russia's security treaty. We will see. (June 7 2024 - they didn't)

The danger is obvious. The USA is guessing where the Russian red line is (recall that only Russia decides that). If the US miscalculates, Russia's response won't be seen coming. It will just happen. More than enough warnings have been given.

"Now we have to be aware of this reality and be sure that everything I have said today is not a bluff ‒ and it is not a bluff, believe me ‒ and to give it a thought and dismiss those who live in the past and are unable to look into the future, to stop rocking the boat we are all in and which is called the Earth.

In this connection, I would like to note the following. We are greatly concerned by certain provisions of the revised nuclear posture review, which expand the opportunities for reducing and reduce the threshold for the use of nuclear arms. Behind closed doors, one may say anything to calm down anyone, but we read what is written. And what is written is that this strategy can be put into action in response to conventional arms attacks and even to a cyber-threat.

I should note that our military doctrine says Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons solely in response to a nuclear attack, or an attack with other weapons of mass destruction against the country or its allies, or an act of aggression against us with the use of conventional weapons that threaten the very existence of the state.

This all is very clear and specific.

As such, I see it is my duty to announce the following. Any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, weapons of short, medium or any range at all, will be considered as a nuclear attack on this country.

Retaliation will be immediate, with all the attendant consequences."
Vladimir Putin 1 March 2018


"Washington, London and Brussels are openly encouraging Kiev to move the hostilities to our territory. They openly say that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield by any means, and subsequently deprived of political, economic, cultural and any other sovereignty and ransacked.

They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.

I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us.

This is not a bluff."

Vladimir Putin 21 September 2022

"We will have to uphold our right to free and sovereign development using all available means."
Sergey Lavrov 13 July 2023

Recently a CNN reporter fed Joseph Biden a 'patsy question' to elicit the President's current talking point:

CNN: Does this raise any new concerns about Putin potentially doing more drastic things regarding Ukraine, like nuclear weapons, or potentially against the U.S., like election interference?
PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Well, first of all, they already interfered in American elections. So that would not be anything new. They did that last time — they tried to.
13 July 2023  

Joseph Biden knew the his statement was false. Why say it? Because, according to President Putin, the United States intends to interfere in the Russian 2024 election. In other words, the American President is preparing the public mind to respond to the US government's intention to try to coerce the Russian public by (falsely) claiming that 'we are only doing what they did to us'.

NATO's Vilnius propaganda communique is laced with this 'blame others for your own crimes' technique. One of the funniest is this:

"We condemn Russia’s announced intention to deploy nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable systems on Belarusian territory, which further demonstrates how Russia’s repeated actions undermine strategic stability and overall security in the Euro-Atlantic area.  We condemn Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive nuclear signalling.  We recall the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear Weapons States issued on 3 January 2022 on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races.  We call on Russia to recommit – in words and deeds – to the principles enshrined in that Statement. "
11 July 2023 

"Russia’s actions demonstrate a posture of strategic intimidation and underline the continued need for NATO to monitor all of these developments and adapt its posture as necessary.  Allies will continue to work closely together to address the threats and challenges posed by Russia and reiterate that any use of Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear weapons by Russia would be met with severe consequences."
NATO's Vilnius communique 11 July 2023 

"...the U.S. State Department launched an active outreach campaign to neutralise Russian accusations that US military biologists had violated the provisions of the Biological Weapons Convention. An important role of the International Science and Technology Centre (ISTC), which is under U.S. control, plays an important role in this effort.

This organisation funds Internet activities to combat information about U.S. biolaboratories in Ukraine and to promote a positive perception of Washington's projects in the post-Soviet space. The ISTC has signed a contract with Wooden Horse Strategies, a U.S. consulting firm.The contractual documents provide for the posting of relevant material at least eight times a month, as well as the monitoring of 'pro-Russian' publications on this topic appearing online and promptly responding to them, including blocking access.

U.S. presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. harshly criticised the military biological activities of the U.S. Government. According to his statement, former U.S. President Nixon unilaterally declared the termination of the biological weapons program in 1969, but the existing developments were not destroyed. In order to take the U.S. military out of the picture, all available information and materials were transferred to the National Institute of Health.

Kennedy emphasised the role of the Central Intelligence Agency in biological weapons operations, the first of which was Operation Paperclip. Thus, specialists from Japan and Nazi Germany were brought to the United States after World War II to 'transfer expertise' in military biological research. Let me remind you that the Japanese developers paid special attention to the use of biological formulations and the mechanisms of vector-borne disease transmission and spread.

In this regard, it is no coincidence that the research organisations of the U.S. Ministry of Defence are interested in studying the main species of mosquitoes and ticks that carry epidemically significant infections such as Rift Valley fever, West Nile fever and Dengue fever.

the work of U.S. military biologists is aimed at the formation of 'artificially managed epidemics' and is not controlled within the framework of the BWC and the UN Secretary-General's mechanism for investigating the use of biological weapons.

In the course of the special military operation documents, which prove the activity of the U.S. Department of Defence's research institutions in Ukraine, have been discovered.
Earlier we briefed you on Walter Reed Army Institute of Research activity. We have already pointed out, that due to an extensive network of branches the institute acts as a supplier of epidemically significant pathogens.

Three of seven U.S. Navy laboratories are located outside USA territories, namely in Italy, Сambodia and Peru. The NAMRU organises its work on establishment of interconnected branches and offices in regions with unfavourable epidemiological situation. Only Asian branch of the NAMRU-2 in Phnom Penh analyses over 5,000 pathogens samples, the same number is gathered in South Africa. Since April 2023 employees of the African branch (NAMRU-6) work undercover of a civilian organisation - Latin American branch of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention...

It should be noted that the Navy's biological warfare unit in Italy works under the three US strategic commands - Central, European, and Africa, and its primary purpose is ‘…to study, monitor and detect diseases of military significance..."
Thus, the efforts of the NAMRU foreign branches is fully in line with U.S. national interests and strategic planning documents in the field of biosecurity and is aimed at controlling the biological situation in the areas, where NATO military contingents are stationed."
Briefing by Chief of Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Protection Troops Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov on U.S. military and biological activity
July 15, 2023

"On April 5 and 9 of this year Ukrainian forces blew up tanks with chemicals which resulted in the release of toxic substances."
Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, April 13, 2022  

'Russia has sent 23 notes to the secretariat of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) on the use of toxic substances as chemical weapons by Kiev, but the OPCW does not yet see the need to send specialists to Ukraine, Russian Permanent Representative to the OPCW Alexander Shulgin said on Wednesday.'
Sputnik 19 July 2023

Wilful stupidity

The US government is crammed full of lawyers, ex-lawyers, and those with legal training. The State Department employs numerous officials with law degrees. The United States government is expert at taking the wording of agreements they signed up to and then twisting, distorting, and dancing on the head of a pin over what a word or phrase 'means' - when context and history long since made the intent and meaning clear.

Anthony Blinken is a Doctor of Law. He practised law in New York and Paris. He and other government officials are far from 'stupid'. They have no lack of intelligence or common sense. They are not dull. Yet, confronted with a simple and plainly written document, which the Minsk agreement is, they pretend to misinterpret it, they give an appearance of not having even read the 13 clauses of Minsk II.

"We are being urged to implement the Minsk agreements and are often accused of not observing them.

However, when we ask our partners, including in the Normandy format, exactly which part of the Minsk agreements Russia is not fulfilling and what, in their opinion, Russia is supposed to do under the Minsk agreements, we get no answer.

This is exactly what they say: – 'We cannot put it into words'. I am not kidding, this is the dialogue we are having.

And what exactly have the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics failed to do regarding the Minsk agreements?

There is no answer either; again they cannot put it into words.

Meanwhile, they publicly demand that we implement them.

And now the second issue regarding who the party to the conflict is. The Minsk agreements do not state that Russia is a party to the conflict, we never agreed to this and never will; we are not a party to it."
Vladimir Putin 13 November 2021

"Question: US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and CIA Director William J. Burns both visited Russia recently. They described the talks as fairly constructive. The United States posits one thing and then we hear different rhetoric. Are they playing a double game? What is Washington trying to achieve?

Sergey Lavrov: Not only before but also after these trips, when they comment on the upcoming or recent contacts as constructive, it still comes down to the idea that Russia “must.” For example, Russia “must” comply with the Minsk agreements.

Today US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken listed the requirements for Russia with respect to the Minsk agreements, including maintaining the ceasefire, withdrawing heavy weapons and ceasing economic interference in Donbass.

During our bilateral meeting, I clarified everything, quoting specific clauses from the Minsk agreements that state that all these matters must be resolved through direct dialogue and consensus between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk.

This obsession with tethering the whole of the Minsk agreements to Russia’s actions and conduct is characteristic of all NATO countries.

There is also some exasperation when it comes to this matter. 

We had a rather professional conversation with Mr Blinken...we can see that their interpretation is completely different from the actual wording....It is the United States that has the most influence with the Kiev regime....

...From the beginning, we need to agree on the fundamental terms of our interaction. And the only possible terms consist of a direct interpretation of the Minsk agreements. There is no need to even interpret them. All it takes is reading and doing what is written.

...we distributed the text of the Minsk agreements and the Declaration of the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany among the participants of the OSCE meeting. These documents had been approved by a UN Security Council resolution. I directly asked our colleagues to carefully read these documents before they comment on Ukrainian affairs. Then many would realise that they should choose different rhetoric."
Sergey Lavrov 2 December 2021 

Why do the US government officials (and their European assistants) do this?

First, no one will admit they understand something that is inconvenient for them to understand. Second, they were simply stalling to buy time to militarise. Third, Mr. Blinken and his officials were fully aware that Russia knows they fully understand Minsk II and its implications. By pretending to be so stupid that they cannot comprehend the agreement they were very deliberately showing contempt to the Russian diplomats. It was a diplomatic 'signal' that the Russian Federation is of little importance. Put another way, by pretending to be too dull to understand Russia's concerns about the security of the Russian nation they can 'belittle' Russia.

In exactly the same way, US diplomats pretend not to understand anything about the causes of Russia's defensive actions, speaking publicly in propaganda slogans. Behind closed doors they no doubt understand everything. A leaked State Department document in effect outlines to Russia the US intention to engage in war against Russia by all means short of nuclear bombs. John Helmer neatly encapsulates it's message (slightly formatted by me):

"The paper claims to be a “response to Russia’s request that the United States provide a direct written response to Russia’s draft treaty proposal”. What follows is not a direct response to the seven substantive Russian treaty articles. Instead, it lays a booby trap for each of the seven Russian proposals with a reaffirmation of the US intention to continue with its plans to attack Russia from the territories of other states, from international waters and the airspace bordering on Russia – and much more.

To camouflage these booby traps, the Blinken paper lists these intentions as “Concerns”. The Blinken paper has issued 55 lines of “Concerns” one for each of the 55 lines of “US Position”.

Only three of the Russian treaty articles are identified in the Blinken paper – Articles 5, 6, and 7.

By ignoring the first four articles of the Russian treaty the Blinken paper has [in effect] declared its refusal  “not to undertake actions nor participate in or support activities that affect the security of the other Party” (Article 1); its dismissal of the “core security interests of the other Party”; and its rejection of “the principles contained in the Charter of the United Nations (Article 2).”

The Blinken paper also declares the US intention to continue to  “use the territories of other States with a view to preparing or carrying out an armed attack against the other Party or other actions affecting core security interests of the other Party” (Article 3);

to encourage “further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization”(Article 4);

 and to plan to “establish military bases in the territory of the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them” (Article 4).

In the Blinken paper, that last point means it no longer matters to the US whether Ukraine joins NATO or not. The US intends to make war on Russia from the territory of the Ukraine across the Red Line...

...To understand this fabrication and the war plan it conceals, it needs to be read beside the Russian treaty proposals of December 17 and compared, line for line, article by article."

In other words, the US understood, and has long understood, Russia's security concerns, has ignored them for the last ten years, and believes it can coerce Russia into having unstoppable cruise missiles, potentially nuclear tipped, right on Russia's border. The fact that the US administration pretends not to understand why Russia has taken the steps it has taken, as though it is a dull simpleton, lacking all common sense, is simply a psychological device to demonstrate it's contemptuous assignation of the Russian people as some form of 'other', lesser, human being. Mr. Blinken has a jewish heritage, and he knows full well the implications of antislavic hate. He knows what racist elements of western Ukraine did in west Ukraine in the post war period. He knows that in 2023 Russia presented historic footage of these atrocities to the United Nations. And yet the Americans continue to rub salt in historic wounds.

On the other hand, perhaps we should pay attention to someone who has had first hand experience with the current US 'top level' cabal.

Jakob de Jonge: "There were so many warnings that this could go very wrong...not only for the ukrainians but also for the US... what were they thinking? Did they actively risk a fight, or were they betting on Putin, you know, sitting back and not acting?"

Jeffrey Sachs: "This is a game of chicken and it's a game that's played as a game - as they do the war games.

And they constantly miscalculate.

I don't find these people very bright and I don't find them very much capable of analyzing the likely reactions on the other side - or the rest of the world."
Jeffrey Sachs, Professor of economics, geopolitical commentator inverview with Jakob de Jonge of the Hague Peace Projects, 16 September 2023


"This is either an instance of amateurish behaviour, or a state of madness that has come to replace the intelligence of diplomats and politicians in the West."
Sergey Lavrov 31 August 2024 on Josep Borrell's wilful pretense that, in effect, the EU & USA are not to blame for preventing a settlement in Ukraine

Petty coercion Edited 25 August 2024 Edited 21 November 2024

The United States has made itself the master of petty, childish, pin-pricking, mean-spirited coercion. These are petty acts designed to impress upon 'the other' that they are a lesser person than anybody else. The United States and the west has spent a very great deal of time and attention, some of it possibly state-sponsored subterfuges, to isolate Russia from 'normal' people. (The incitement of anti-Russia race hate in Ukraine prior to arming their proxy against Russia has been their 'greatest' 'achievement'.)

The west also tries to direct other countries how they should talk to Russia. This is both juvenile and contemptuous. The west's attempts to dictate to the League of Arab States (LAS) is one example of many.

"..prior to last year’s visit to the headquarters of the Arab League in Cairo, the US, UK and European ambassadors made public demarches, urging Cairo to “cancel Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s address” at the Arab League.

When they were told that Russia and the Arab League had their own relations as determined by agreements between them, the Western diplomats started asking LAS representatives to make the Arab countries denounce Russia’s actions in Ukraine after Mr Lavrov’s speech.

They were told again that the Arab League had its own position on international developments. Then the ambassadors made a third request: “Let Lavrov speak and don’t denounce anything, just avoid posing for a photograph with him.” I am not joking."
Sergey Lavrov 21 December 2023

The most low-life technique the USA government and western governments in general uses is to denigrate Russia's decisive role in the second world war - effectively denigrating the death of 27 million Russian people. The Western politicians and diplomats know the immense damage done to Russia in World War 2. So they deliberately denigrate Russia's war efforts and distort history as part of their mean-minded campaign of childish pettiness. And the west's proxy war on the Russian Federation, complete with German tanks attacking Russian troops, has eerie echos of World War 2:

"Desecrating and insulting the memory is mean. Meanness can be deliberate, hypocritical and pretty much intentional as in the situation when declarations commemorating the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II mention all participants in the Anti-Hitler coalition except for the Soviet Union.

Meanness can be cowardly as in the situation when monuments erected in honour of those who fought against Nazism are demolished and these shameful acts are justified by the false slogans of the fight against an unwelcome ideology and alleged occupation.

Meanness can also be bloody as in the situation when those who come out against neo-Nazis and Bandera's successors are killed and burned. Once again, meanness can have different manifestations, but this does not make it less disgusting.

Neglecting the lessons of history inevitably leads to a harsh payback. We will firmly uphold the truth based on documented historical facts. We will continue to be honest and impartial about the events of World War II. This includes a large-scale project to establish Russia's largest collection of archival records, film and photo materials about the history of World War II and the pre‑war period.

Such work is already underway. Many new, recently discovered or declassified materials were also used in the preparation of this article... The Soviet military leadership indeed followed a doctrine according to which, in the event of aggression, the Red Army would promptly confront the enemy, go on the offensive and wage war on enemy territory...

Of course, military planning documents, letters of instruction of Soviet and German headquarters are now available to historians. ...In this regard, I will say one thing: along with a huge flow of misinformation of various kinds, Soviet leaders also received true information about the upcoming Nazi aggression. And in the pre-war months, they took steps to improve the combat readiness of the country, including the secret recruitment of a part of those liable for military duty for military training and the redeployment of units and reserves from internal military districts to western borders.

The war did not come as a surprise, people were expecting it, preparing for it. But the Nazi attack was truly unprecedented in terms of its destructive power. On June 22, 1941, the Soviet Union faced the strongest, most mobilised and skilled army in the world with the industrial, economic and military potential of almost all Europe working for it. Not only the Wehrmacht, but also Germany’s satellites, military contingents of many other states of the European continent, took part in this deadly invasion.

The most serious military defeats in 1941 brought the country to the brink of catastrophe. Combat power and control had to be restored by extreme means, nation-wide mobilisation and intensification of all efforts of the state and the people. In summer 1941, millions of citizens, hundreds of factories and industries began to be evacuated under enemy fire to the east of the country. The manufacture of weapons and munition, that had started to be supplied to the front already in the first military winter, was launched behind the lines in the shortest possible time, and by 1943, the rates of military production of Germany and its allies were exceeded.

Within eighteen months, the Soviet people did something that seemed impossible. Both on the front lines and the home front. It is still hard to realise, understand and imagine what incredible efforts, courage, dedication these greatest achievements were worth.

The tremendous power of Soviet society, united by the desire to protect their native land, rose against the powerful, armed to the teeth, cold-blooded Nazi invading machine. It stood up to take revenge on the enemy, who had broken, trampled peaceful life, people's plans and hopes....

The Nazi ‘strategists’ were convinced that a huge multinational state could easily be brought to heel. They thought that the sudden outbreak of the war, its mercilessness and unbearable hardships would inevitably exacerbate inter-ethnic relations. And that the country could be split into pieces. 

Hitler clearly stated: “Our policy towards the peoples living in the vastness of Russia should be to promote any form of disagreement and split.”

But from the very first days, it was clear that the Nazi plan had failed. The Brest Fortress was protected to the last drop of blood by its defenders representing more than 30 ethnicities. Throughout the war – both in large-scale decisive battles and in the protection of every foothold, every metre of native land – we see examples of such unity.

The Volga region and the Urals, Siberia and the Far East, the republics of Central Asia and Transcaucasia became home to millions of evacuees. Their residents shared everything they had and provided all the support they could. Friendship of peoples and mutual help became a real indestructible fortress for the enemy.

The Soviet Union and the Red Army, no matter what anyone is trying to prove today, made the main and crucial contribution to the defeat of Nazism. These were heroes who fought to the end surrounded by the enemy at Bialystok and Mogilev, Uman and Kiev, Vyazma and Kharkov. They launched attacks near Moscow and Stalingrad, Sevastopol and Odessa, Kursk and Smolensk. They liberated Warsaw, Belgrade, Vienna and Prague. They stormed Koenigsberg and Berlin.

We contend for genuine, unvarnished or whitewashed truth about war. This national, human truth, which is hard, bitter and merciless, has been handed down to us by writers and poets who walked through fire and hell of front trials. For my generation, as well as for many others, their honest and deep stories, novels, piercing trench prose and poems have left their mark on the soul forever. Honouring veterans who did everything they could for the Victory and remembering those who died on the battlefield has become our moral duty...

... In the battles for Rzhev and the Rzhev Salient alone from October 1941 to March 1943, the Red Army lost 1,342,888 people, including wounded and missing in action. For the first time, I call out these terrible, tragic and far from complete figures collected from archive sources. I do it to honour the memory of the feat of known and nameless heroes, who for various reasons were undeservingly, and unfairly little talked about or not mentioned at all in the post-war years.

Let me cite another document. This is a report of February 1945 on reparation from Germany by the Allied Commission on Reparations headed by Ivan Maisky. The Commission's task was to define a formula according to which defeated Germany would have to pay for the damages sustained by the victor powers. 

The Commission concluded that “the number of soldier-days spent by Germany on the Soviet front is at least 10 times higher than on all other allied fronts. The Soviet front also had to handle four-fifths of German tanks and about two-thirds of German aircraft.” 

On the whole, the USSR accounted for about 75 percent of all military efforts undertaken by the Anti-Hitler Coalition. During the war period, the Red Army “ground up” 626 divisions of the Axis states, of which 508 were German.

On April 28, 1942, Franklin D. Roosevelt said in his address to the American nation: “These Russian forces have destroyed and are destroying more armed power of our enemies – troops, planes, tanks, and guns – than all the other United Nations put together.” Winston Churchill in his message to Joseph Stalin of September 27, 1944, wrote that “it is the Russian army that tore the guts out of the German military machine…”

Such an assessment has resonated throughout the world. Because these words are the great truth, which no one doubted then.

Almost 27 million Soviet citizens lost their lives on the fronts, in German prisons, starved to death and were bombed, died in ghettos and furnaces of the Nazi death camps.

The USSR lost one in seven of its citizens, the UK lost one in 127, and the USA lost one in 320. Unfortunately, this figure of the Soviet Union's hardest and grievous losses is not exhaustive."
Vladimir Putin '75th Anniversary of the Great Victory: Shared Responsibility to History and our Future' 19 June 2020

"Moscow is to create the most extensive collection of WWII documents, open to all persons anywhere, to once and for all “shut the filthy mouth” of those seeking to rewrite history for short-term gains, the Russian president said.

Any person, Russian or non-national, will be able to access the archive, including through a website resource, and the ultimate goal is to debunk any disinformation about the most devastating conflict in human history, President Vladimir Putin pledged, during a meeting with veterans of the Great Patriotic War, held in St. Petersburg on Saturday.

The creation of the center would leave no chance to those willing to distort the truth about the war for their own political needs, he argued.

The center is expected to incorporate the biggest and most extensive collection of documents, as well as photos and video footage dating back to the World War II era. The president first floated this idea during his annual state-of-the-nation address earlier this week, arguing that Russia should combat “brazen lies and attempts to distort history.”

...Putin’s words come amid a row between Moscow and Warsaw over the events that led to the Second World War. Poland has been revising that devastating conflict’s history for quite some time, seeking to shun any responsibility relating to events during that period, while presenting itself as a victim of both Nazi and Soviet aggression and occupation.

Warsaw has been removing monuments to Soviet soldiers who died while liberating the city from Nazi Germany occupation, and also initiated an EU Parliament resolution in September, which claims that the 1939 non-aggression pact between Moscow and Berlin had “paved the way for the outbreak of the Second World War.”

This last move did not sit well with Moscow, which labeled it a falsification of history."
RT 18 January 2020


"This year marks the 75th anniversary of Victory in WWII. Sadly, there are attempts to brazenly distort history and to equate the liberators of Europe with Nazi murderers. These attempts will remain on the conscience of those behind them. No one and nothing can belittle the decisive role of the Red Army and the Soviet people in defeating Nazism.

At the same time, we will always keep in our minds the spirit of Alliance during the War and the ability of the states to unite and fight the common threat regardless of ideological differences."
Sergey Lavrov 15 February 2020

"To mark the 75th anniversary of Victory, which was celebrated in 2020, the United States issued a commemorative coin (perhaps you’ve seen it) dedicated to the victory over Nazism. There were three flags – American, British, and French – engraved on it. There was neither the Soviet, nor Russian flag."
Sergey Lavrov 10 March 2023

Sport

Russia has been banned from wearing it's national costume at the Olympics. Russia's Olympic gymnasts are forced to wear a plain blue tunic (the same light blue as the territorial flag of pre-Soviet 'Ukraine') are are barred if they are in any way supported by the Russian government, or communicate in any way approval or support (even implicit support) for the Russian military operation in Ukraine (including 'liking' a tweet). 

"The aggressive imposition of humiliating and unjustified conditions for sports events on our athletes based solely on their nationality contradicts the Olympic Charter and violates the fundamental principles of the Olympic movement. It seems that international sports officials have decided to take the opportunity to eliminate the strongest competitors by putting our gymnasts in the most unfavourable conditions.

In addition to banning the use of symbols of our country (such as the anthem, flag, associations with a national sports federation, etc.), which is not surprising anymore, the sports functionaries instructed that our gymnasts perform in completely neutral single-coloured blue or white leotards, which must be coordinated with the international federation.

Let me read a piece from this statement: “Women’s competition leotard, unitard or competition shirt must be of a solid light blue colour. Men’s competition singlet, unitard or competition shirt must be of a solid light blue colour. Men’s competition pants or shorts must be completely white. The Track suit worn by Individual Neutral Athletes and their support personnel must be of a solid light blue colour. In Rhythmic Gymnastics, the hand apparatus must be completely white.”

You are mistaken if you believe that the use of special clothing and uniforms to conduct coercive racial segregation of people of various ethnic and national background was invented by the sports officials in Lausanne this November. This is not true....

Clothes, just like other tools of oppression, were used to discriminate, segregate, separate and humiliate. In the 19th-century Britain, it was the local population of the colonies, in Germany in the 1930s-1940s it was Jews and Roma people, and in the 20th century America it was people of colour.

In the 21st century, the International Olympic Committee and sports federations went after Russians and Belarusians by instructing them to wear uniforms that differed from everyone else’s. This is not only unacceptable in terms of international law, but also immoral, unconscionable, inhumane and horrendous for any normal person."

Maria Zakharova, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman 15 November 2023

Russia sports people have been banned from various international tournaments (or their visa denied). Soccer in Russia is being destroyed by the actions of the international soccer authorities (FIFA).

"According to a decision adopted by the Bureau of the FIFA Council and the UEFA Executive Committee, Russian teams, national teams and clubs have been suspended from FIFA and UEFA competitions until further notice. As a result, Russia did not take part in world and continental football championships.

The other day, the UEFA Executive Committee decided at its meeting in Hamburg to exclude the Russian national team from the Nations League for the 2024/2025 season draw, to be held in Paris on February 8, 2024. The Nations League will be part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification, which means that the latest decision will determine the situation in football for the next three years.

We believe that the decision to bar Russia from qualifiers long in advance is proof that the football officials are focused on destroying football in Russia, thereby ignoring their direct duties, which is promoting football."
Maria Zakharova,  Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, December 6, 2023

Russian culture
Various Russian cultural works in literature, dance and so forth have been banned. Russia has been banned from the Eurovision Song Contest.

Diplomatic service  edited 15 September 2024
Russian diplomats have not been able to access the banking services in America needed to pay bills accruing to running the embassies and consulate offices, Russian attendees at United Nations fora have been denied entry, even when they were part of the official program, Russian reporters attending important UN events have had their visas delayed until the last possible flight to New York has taken off, Russian diplomatic properties have been seized, Russian flag taken down from Russian diplomatic premises at the time of eviction (a gross insult in the diplomatic world), Russian diplomatic properties searched even before the diplomats had left the seized buildings, locks changed on seized buildings so that US secret services can plant 'bugs' at will, the list just goes on and on.

"If it depended on us alone, we would gladly resume normal relations. The first possible step towards this, which I regard as obvious, is to zero out the measures restricting the work of Russian diplomats in the United States. It was as a response measure that we restricted the operations of American diplomats in Russia.

We proposed this to the Biden administration as soon as it had taken the oath and assumed office. I have mentioned the idea to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. I did not try to press it; I just said that an obvious way to normalise our relations would be to zero out the measures initiated by Barack Obama.

Several weeks before leaving office, he was so annoyed he virtually slammed the door by seizing Russian property in violation of all the Vienna conventions and throwing Russian diplomats out.

This has caused a chain reaction.

We patiently sat back for a long time, until the summer of 2017, before taking any response measures.

The Trump administration asked us to disregard the excessive measures taken by the outgoing Obama administration.

However, Donald Trump’s team failed to normalise the situation, and so we had to take reciprocal measures. But the Americans have not stopped there.

We can see that the Biden administration continues to go downhill"
Sergey Lavrov 28 April 2021 

" The impossibility of paying utility bills, threats of cutting off power or telephone lines. In principle, it is about creating a toxic atmosphere around embassies in a variety of areas: bullying in the media, publication of unreliable data, use of personal data about family members, and threats to life.

I won’t even mention surveillance, “approaches,” or attempts at recruitment, which have increased significantly. We regularly commented on this. This is what Russian diplomats faced. The Russian diplomatic service should be credited with successfully passing these tests of strength.

I can also talk about erasing us from the information space. There are a number of ambassadors and embassies that are not allowed to publish refutations in the media or to promote our position, considering that Russian media have long been blocked in the information space of unfriendly countries... Our embassies have largely become the only source of information about Russia’s official steps. Even this was blocked under all imaginable threats, including physical violence."
Maria Zakharova,  Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, December 6, 2023

"...on December 21, 2023, representatives of the Latvian security services broke into the Moscow House cultural and business centre in Riga. They confiscated employees’ devices and interrogated them. Later, on January 11, the country’s Saeima passed the bill on its expropriation...The move was entirely political...the confiscated property was never owned by any private, public or state entity in Latvia. It was the property of the Moscow Government.

We have previously qualified that move as raiding, stealing, thieving on a national scale, while grossly violating the norms of international law that guarantee the inviolability of other countries’ property.

...the countries that Riga sees as ideological role models (the United States and Britain) have been doing the same.

They take away sovereign assets and private assets. They expropriate assets that never belonged to them. They have been encroaching upon property for a long time.

Remember how many Russian properties, including diplomatic properties, which must have immunity...have been taken away and stolen by the United States.

...We hold the Latvian authorities and the country’s top officials fully responsible and financially accountable for such lawless actions.

Retaliatory steps will be taken."
Maria Zakharova,  Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, 21 August 2024

Russia is required by the immutable laws of diplomacy to respond to these provocations, mirroring closure of consular offices and the like, by, as far as I know, they have not stooped to the apartheid-like petty prohibitions and restrictions the US government delights in - let alone threats of violence.

"We are not anticipating any changes that the US elections will bring. If we are talking about Donald Trump, he has already been president. During his administration, some of the most severe sanctions, as it seemed at the time, were imposed. But the Biden administration has outdone everyone.

Meanwhile, it all started with President Obama. At the height of his term, three weeks before Donald Trump's inauguration, the President of the United States expelled our diplomats along with their families and children. There were 120 of them in total. He did it on New Year's Eve. He ordered them to return to their homeland on a day when there were no direct flights between Washington and Moscow. Our staff, along with their children and belongings, had to travel by coach to New York in bad weather.

This was done with great finesse by the Obama administration.

And their successors continued this practice."
Sergey Lavrov 1 March 2024

Person to Person Diplomatic Relationships
Donald Trump is infamous for his bullying attempts at domination using a handshake that turns into an attempt to physically pull the other person off balance. He did this with European leaders, failing with President Macron who was ready for his nonsense. He did it with Mr. Putin, which Mr. Putin clearly did not expect. He tried it on Mr.Lavrov, but failed. Mr. Trump made a comment on Mr.Lavrov's strong grip. Perhaps tellingly, he did the same to Mr. Netanyahu in late 2024 when greeting him at Mar el Largo.

It is necessary to maintain good relations when you are a diplomatic. It doesn't matter whether or not you are in conflict with the other side. When Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was being diplomatically 'snubbed' by the west at the G20 in 2018, both men were placed beside each other as 'outcasts', and realising the silly joke, they greeted each other warmly.

"When people know each other, even in a situation where there are deep-running differences between their respective countries, it is absolutely normal to exchange greetings when running into each other in a public place. What I find abnormal is that many European leaders recoil when they see Russian representatives in the hallways, backrooms, or at photo sessions. 

In 2023 (I’ve shared this example before) at the summit in India, we were waiting for the event to begin. I entered the room, and some of the participants were already sitting there. Two African leaders were sitting next to European Council President Charles Michel at a table. I met both of these African presidents on an earlier occasion. They saw me, and we exchanged greetings. As decorum dictates, I extended my hand to greet Charles Michel, but he jumped aside as if stung and looked the other way. So much for his manners."
Sergey Lavrov 19 November 2024

Does this kind of childish passive-aggressive behaviour coercion work? Probably not, because Russia always has an eye on the much longer term goal, a multipolar, UN-centric, cooperative world where diplomacy is respect-based and takes a balanced approach to all countries lawful interests. Resistance to change is expected. It is instructive that the petty apartheid pin-pricking racist restrictions of the Boer regime did not prevent massive societal change in South Africa.

State terrorism by proxy as a coercive tool (edited 13 September 2024)

"In fact, the Islamic State itself did not come out of nowhere. It was initially developed as a weapon against undesirable secular regimes.

Having established control over parts of Syria and Iraq, Islamic State now aggressively expands into other regions. It seeks dominance in the Muslim world and beyond. Their plans go further.

The situation is extremely dangerous....

...it is hypocritical and irresponsible to make declarations about the threat of terrorism and at the same time turn a blind eye to the channels used to finance and support terrorists, including revenues from drug trafficking, the illegal oil trade and the arms trade.

It is equally irresponsible to manipulate extremist groups and use them to achieve your political goals, hoping that later you’ll find a way to get rid of them or somehow eliminate them.

I’d like to tell those who engage in this: Gentlemen, the people you are dealing with are cruel but they are not dumb. They are as smart as you are. So, it’s a big question: who’s playing who here?"
Vladimir Putin 28 September 2015 


"The United States is providing support to ISIS and its members at the Al-Tanf base in eastern Syria, which it illegally occupies. Everyone is well aware of this.

ISIS itself emerged following America’s attack on Iraq, which it invaded under a false pretext. Later the United States assumed administrative control over Iraq. They sent down a Gauleiter or a Governor-General (whatever you call him), Paul Bremer, who dissolved all the organisations of the Baath party. He just dissolved them. These structures were based on Sunni Islam. The core of ISIS was made up of officers of Saddam Hussein’s army, who had lost all their means of subsistence. And it was the United States that created this situation....

...Al Qaeda came into being after the Afghan saga, which also ended in a lamentable and disgraceful failure.

Jabhat al-Nusra (later Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), in turn, was created after the invasion of Syria.

They are mercenaries, whatever else you call them. ISIS members are sent to fight in various flashpoint areas for a fee of several thousand dollars.

It is clear that these practices are fraught with danger. Eventually, on completing their mission in a country, they will have to retire to some asylum. But they have no skills other than to stage terrorist attacks, handle firearms, and kill people."
Sergey Lavrov 16 February 2024

"Even in Syria, the Vladimir Zelensky regime has been working with the United States to train Hayat Tahrir al-Sham terrorists to master the latest UAV manufacturing technology in order to fight the Russian Armed Forces in the Syrian Arab Republic."
Sergey Lavrov 4 October 2024

The USA has long used terrorists to coerce other countries into accepting its demands. These usually center around economic demands, whether for access to resources, or markets for US goods, or both. The USA supported Osama bin Laden (the west's "anti-Soviet warrior" as he was styled) to overthrow the Afghan government, the USA clandestinely supported wahhabi terrorists in Chechnya to pull Chechnya away from Russia. The USA, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia supported ISIS terrorists in Syria in an attempt to destroy the secular government there and replace it with a sectarian Muslim fundamentalist government, the USA recently supported Beloch and ISIS terrorists to murder Iranian civilians and try to incite a civil uprising  - the shameful list of state criminality goes on and on.

"We had representatives from American intelligence services at our nuclear, military facilities; monitoring Russia’s nuclear weapons sites was their job. They went there every day and even lived there. Many advisors, including CIA staffers, worked in the Russian Government.

What else did you need? Why did they have to support terrorists in the North Caucasus and use organisations of a clearly terrorist nature in attempts to break the Russian Federation apart? But they did this, and as former Director of the Federal Security Service, I know this all too well. We worked with double agents, and they reported to us on the objectives set for them by Western intelligence services. But why?

They should have treated Russia as a potential ally, and made it stronger, but it all went in the opposite direction; they wanted to break it down even further."
Vladimir Putin 23 December 2021

When the USA government overtly support terrorists, as they did in Syria, they 're-brand' the terrorists as 'armed opposition'. Following this line of hypocrisy, then it was Saudi Arabian 'armed opposition' who destroyed the twin towers in USA.

You can argue that saboteur attacks against military targets in Russia are a legitimate part of the current war (although neither side has declared it a war), but the rules of war prohibit attacking non-military targets, and demand civilians must be protected as far as possible. Terrorist attacks on civilians is not 'warfare', asymmetric or otherwise. Targeted killing of non-combatants is simply terrorism, nothing else, and punishable as such.

Where the United States supports terrorists, either directly or by proxy, Russia adheres to international law, refusing to back terrorists and refusing to use terrorism to achieve political or military objectives.

"On January 31, the UN International Court of Justice delivered its judgment on the merits in the case filed by Ukraine in January 2017 on the Application of the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (ICSFT). Russia’s arguments undercutting Ukraine’s groundless insinuations were heard in The Hague: the Court rejected almost all of more than 20 submissions made by Kiev during the seven-year proceedings, and left Ukraine without any reparations.

The Court also dismissed Ukraine’s insinuations that the DPR and the LPR are allegedly terrorist organisations

These findings are of particular importance in light of the fact that Kiev intended to use the Court’s Judgment to support its demands for the transfer of Russian assets stolen in the West and the imposition of international restrictions on Russia.

In addition, the Court rejected Ukraine’s claim under the ICSFT that Russia should be held responsible for the crash of Boeing Flight MH17 and did not accept the Ukrainians’ allegations that the DPR was involved in the crash.

During the hearing, Russia presented compelling evidence of fatal flaws in the pseudo-international investigation of the incident by the Joint Investigation Team under the umbrella of the Dutch justice system...

...The UN International Court of Justice stated that Russia had complied in good faith with its obligations to cooperate in the field of the suppression of terrorism financing, including the obligation to identify and freeze assets used to finance terrorism; to extradite or independently prosecute perpetrators of terrorist crimes; to provide mutual legal assistance; and to cooperate in the prevention of terrorist crimes.

This is fully consistent with the FATF's earlier conclusions about the high level of Russia's fulfillment of its obligations in this area; the FATF assessed Ukraine's claims as being of a purely political nature.

We were bewildered, against this background, at the Court's conclusion that Russia had failed to take measures to investigate two facts contained in information received from Ukraine regarding persons who have allegedly collected funds in Russia to help the people of Donbass.

The Court had to go against its own practice and set an unprecedentedly low bar for proving the applicability of the Terrorist Financing Convention when there was no evidence of either terrorism or its financing.

As a result of the proceedings, Ukraine was completely denied all claims for reparation or other forms of compensation."
Russia Foreign Ministry Press release 31 January 2024 

Their policy of coercive 'punishment' by proxy terrorism will make them pariahs in the eyes of a large part of the global population. It is true that what Sergey Lavrov called 'below the radar' advisories are given to Russia by the USA (and vice versa) on imminent terrorist attacks on each others territories, but this doesn't stop the USA inciting, training, and arming terrorists. Other western countries simply point blank refuse to cooperate with Russia on terrorism. This refusal, of course, is fully in line with the George doctrine of psychological coercion, a subset of isolation as a coercive tool.

"we spent many years trying to persuade the European Union to put an information sharing mechanism in place. That did not happen until 2018. The last meeting took place in 2019. After that, they, too, lost interest. Their actual refusal to engage with us on specific counter-terrorism issues came long before the special military operation....

... I double-checked my words that Interpol has never offered to investigate high-profile crimes before. This is indeed the case. It did not do this as regards Nord Stream pipelines or terrorist attacks in Russia in the early 2000s. Interpol has never demonstrated this kind of zeal before.

...this time it offered its services literally several hours after the Americans and the Europeans declared that Ukraine had nothing to do with the attack"
Sergey Lavrov 28 March 2024

"...we maintained efficient cooperation with Western countries and had corresponding channels until 2022, including regular consultations on counter-terrorism and anti-terrorism issues. They were constructive and politically unbiased in general. They served as an effective platform to discuss anti-terrorism and other new challenges and threats.

After 2022, all these formats were scaled down at the Western partners’ initiative."
Maria Zakharova, spokewoman Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 27 March 2024

"...the West moved to infringe upon Russia’s rights and interests at specialised international organisations and formats and to directly oust our country from them. This includes the suspension of our involvement in Financial Action Task Force (FATF) activities for politically motivated reasons, the unjustified restriction of our prerogatives during consultations of countries parties to the 2005 Council of Europe Convention on the Prevention of Terrorism and the 2015 Additional Protocol to it, as well as a Conference of Countries Parties to the 2005 Council of Europe Convention on Laundering, Search, Seizure and Confiscation of the Proceeds from Crime and on the Financing of Terrorism."
Maria Zakharova, spokewoman Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 11 September 2024

"the US-led West ...uses foreign mercenaries, including militants from international terrorist organisations, for supporting Ukraine.

It is unacceptable to use this issue, as well as the terrorist groups, as a geopolitical tool for interfering in domestic affairs and destabilising regimes seen as “undesirable” by the West.

...On September 3, 2024, the Russian Investigative Committee charged Ukrainian colonels Pavel Fedosenko, Fyodor Yaroshevich, Andrey Matviishin and Dmitry Khrapach in absentia with mass murders...On September 4, 2024, the Second Western District Military Court gave a life sentence to Dmitry Khrapach, commander of the 27th Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for organising the terrorist shelling of the Belgorod Region...none of the Ukrainian criminals and their accomplices will escape punishment.."
Maria Zakharova, spokewoman Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 11 September 2024

"No one today has any doubts that the US, Britain and the entire NATO community are behind all the terrorist attacks that are carried out on the territory of our country."
Maria Zakharova, spokewoman Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 11 September 2024

There must be an adequate response to dissuade state terrorism, in particular, 'long arm' state terrorism to coerce other countries.

"According to President Putin, all those who masterminded, organised, sponsored and executed this terrorist attack [on the Crocus Center] will be brought to justice....Head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Agency Kirill Budanov had the following to say yesterday: “The allegation that Ukraine committed the terrorist attack in Crocus is nonsensical. Even though Russia is an enemy, I do not condone terrorist attacks against civilians.” No one would believe what this person has to say.

In May 2023, he said “these people with altered psyche (meaning Russians) should be held accountable. For us, holding accountable means physical annihilation.” He said that on the air of the 1+1 television channel. There are many other similar remarks by Ukrainian officials, including Mikhail Podolyak, Andrey Yermak, and former Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council Alexey Danilov, including outright calls to destroy “Rusnya.” ...We hear threats to kill Russians in Ukraine physically and legally.."
Sergey Lavov 28 March 2024 

"The investigation also gained access to data from the suspects' cell phones, which contained information incriminating Ukrainian security services. The investigation also has at its disposal confirmed data that perpetrators of the attack received significant amounts of money and cryptocurrency from Ukraine, which were used in the preparation of the crime.

Moreover, there is evidence that the Kiev regime has been cooperating with and using Islamist radicals for a long time. We also know for a fact that the Ukrainian embassy in Dushanbe recruits mercenaries who are willing to join the International Legion. The perpetrators of the terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall and their accomplices are also mainly of Tajik origin.

In connection with these facts, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has transmitted to the Ukrainian authorities demands under the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism for the immediate arrest and extradition of all persons involved in these terrorist acts."
Vassily Nebenzia, Russian Federation Permanent Representative at the United Nations 12 April 2024

Heads of State, government officials and diplomats are exempt from reprisals, and up until early 2024 Russia (unlike Israel and the United States governments) stuck to this rule. Russia has responded to the Ukrainian government terrorist attack on the civilian Kirsch bridge by attacking and destroying a proportion of the Ukrainian electricity network. The attack was designed to hit parts of the system that can be replaced and repaired relatively quickly. The attack was designed to be punitive (it cost very large amounts of money to repair) and a deterrent to further terrorist attacks.

"The life of journalist Rostislav Zhuravlyov ended today as a result of Ukrainian Nazis’ artillery strike using cluster munitions against a group of journalists from the Izvestia Information Centre and RIA Novosti news agency. Three of his colleagues received shrapnel wounds of moderate severity...

...Everything points to the fact that the attack on the group of journalists was not an accident: the correspondents were collecting materials for a report on Kiev regime militants shelling communities in the Zaporozhye Region with cluster munitions...

...The very same munitions that are supplied to Kiev by the United States.

We have no illusions that specialised international organisations will choose to turn a blind eye to this heinous crime...which makes them accomplices in Kiev’s terrorist mayhem.

Washington, along with London and Paris...are sponsoring terrorists.

...Those responsible for the brutal murder of the Russian journalist will inevitably suffer the punishment they deserve.

The entire measure of responsibility will be shared by those who supplied cluster munitions to their Kiev protégés.

Spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 22 July 2022

"...Having lost its last remnants of conscience, London attributes the new portion of illegitimate unilateral restrictions to its intention to “protect children.” And yet, the unlawful measures target specifically the individuals who, by force of duty and by personal choice, directly participate in rescuing and helping children from the special military operation zone. They include the DPR Human Rights Commissioner, the Adviser to the Head of the DPR for Children’s Rights, the Moscow Region Commission for Children’s Rights and heads of the Russian regions hosting the children...

...By demonstrating feigned “care about children,” London continues, with unparalleled cynicism, to supply lethal weapon systems to the Kiev regime that the latter uses against civilians and civilian infrastructure in Donbass, the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, the Republic of Crimea and other Russian regions.

The munitions and missiles supplied by the UK kill, cripple and orphan the same children that the UK country allegedly wants to protect. This makes London an accomplice in these and other crimes committed by the Kiev regime and London will not evade accountability.
Foreign Ministry Official Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova  18 July 2023

"Vladimir Zelensky is rejoicing at the efficiency of Western arms against the background of massive shelling of residential areas in Donbass. This is a quote: “Finally, we feel that Western artillery has become very powerful – these are weapons we received from our Western partners. This accuracy is exactly what we need,” said the cynical leader of this state entity.

Meanwhile, no military or strategic targets were hit during this shelling of residential areas. The suffering is befalling civilians in Donbass.

Since late July, the Ukrainian armed forces have scattered prohibited anti-personnel Petal mines over the centre of Donetsk and its suburbs. The use of these mines is a crude violation of the 1997 convention on the prohibition of anti-personnel mines, which Ukraine ratified in 2005, as well as the second protocol to the Geneva convention on conventional arms (that bans mines without a self-destruct device). 

Such outrages have become possible and remain unpunished because the United States and its allies have consistently covered up the crimes of the Kiev regime for eight years with the connivance of international human rights institutions.

They have built their policy on Zelensky based on the notorious American principle: “Sure, he is a son of a bitch, but he is our son of a bitch.”

The uncomfortable truth, smearing Ukraine’s luminous image as a victim of Russian aggression, is being meticulously hushed up and sometimes openly deleted. Even the Western human rights organisation Amnesty International that can hardly be suspected of sympathising with Russia, was subjected to severe criticism and blacklisted as a Kremlin agent. It was punished just for confirming in its report the commonly known facts about Kiev deploying artillery and heavy weapons at civilian facilities.

The criminal shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant by the Kiev regime militants, which creates the risk of a nuclear disaster, remains unpunished. The shelling continues despite the fact that the IAEA staff has been present at the station since September 1, and it is not hard to identify the party responsible for the shelling....

...The fate of the Russian troops who ended up in the hands of Ukrainian nationalists is something that is of great concern to us. There is ample evidence of abusive treatment, including out-of-court killings in violation of international humanitarian law. I’m sure that everyone who is interested in what is actually happening in Ukraine has seen videos of the Russian prisoners of war being killed by Ukrainian Nazis. They threw the POWs to the ground with their hands tied behind their backs and shot them in the head. Have any of the countries represented here commented on this crime?

We have a great amount of evidence of these and other crimes regularly committed by the Kiev regime since 2014. In cooperation with their colleagues from the DPR and the LPR, Russian law enforcement agencies record and investigate these crimes.

Over 220 individuals have been identified, including representatives of the high command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military unit commanders, those who were involved in shooting civilians.

Criminal cases are being investigated involving citizens of Great Britain, Canada, the United States, and the Netherlands regarding the facts of mercenary activities and the perpetration of criminal acts in Ukraine.

Rest assured that all those responsible, regardless of their nationality, will be held accountable...

...No intelligible responses have been issued from the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the wake of the 2014 bloody coup in Kiev, the Odessa tragedy of May 2, 2014, the shelling of peaceful cities in Donbass, the bombing of Lugansk by warplanes on June 2, 2014, or multiple other incidents.

Over 3,000 reports of crimes against residents of Donbass have been sent to the ICC. There was no response.

Clearly, the senior officials from this “judicial body” have received a command from on high to step up their activities.

This body has lost its credibility with us.

For eight long years we have been hoping in vain for someone to start fighting the impunity in Ukraine.

We are no longer counting on seeing justice from this or a number of other international agencies. We are finished waiting.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks at a meeting of the UN Security Council on Ukraine, New York, September 22, 2022

But in early March 2024 Ukraine struck Russian oil refineries within Russia. The Ukrainians regard these as legitimate targets of war, and so demonstrate that they are at war with Russia, although they have not formally declared war. The Russians up until this date regarded the conflict as a 'special military operation' whose primary purpose was to liberate those new parts of Russia that seceded from Ukraine and voted to join Russia. Another major goal was to secure guarantees that Ukraine will not host NATO forces. Ukraine, by attacking Russian territory, is forcing Russia to concede that these are not a series of terrorist attacks. Taken together, these attacks constitute an 'asymmetric' war. Russia will be forced to change the scale and intensity of its current operation to an operation that is more akin to all-out war.

The Russian responded to attacks on their energy infrastructure by destroying Ukrainian electricity generation gear, perhaps including specialist transformers that are designed for the Soviet era grid and that may take months or even years to replace. The high precision attacks took place over 8 days in March, destroying hydro and thermal energy generation plants responsible for 8% of Ukraines total energy generation capacity. 

Russia also destroyed an underground gas storage facility that was going to be used by the EU to store large volumes of natural gas for the high demand winter period. (This ratchet up of coercive pressure was in response to Ukraine not being deterred by previous Russian less damaging attacks).

The March 22 2024 terror attack on Russian civilians in Moscow forced Russia to end its rule about not hitting government officials. On March 26 2024 Mr. Patrushev, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, said that there are many things pointing to Ukraine being behind the terrorist attack. The director of the FSB, the Russian Security Service, said that Mr. Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate, is now a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces, and that the FSB should be recognised as a terrorist organisation. This designation obliges the Russian government's to find out who was the organiser and paymaster of the attack, and then bring them to account. Regardless of any official status. Regardless of the country they are from. Regardless of the country they run to.

"The Federal Security Service and other law enforcement agencies are working diligently to identify and expose the accomplice base behind these terrorists: those who provided them with transport, planned escape routes from the crime scene, and prepared caches with weapons and ammunition.

The investigative and law enforcement agencies will spare no effort to establish all the details of this crime. However, it is already clear that we are confronted not simply with a carefully and cynically planned terrorist attack, but a premediated and organised mass murder of peaceful, defenceless people. The perpetrators cold-bloodedly and deliberately targeted our citizens, including our children, with the intent to kill them at close range. Like the Nazis who once carried out massacres in the occupied territories, they planned to stage a demonstrative execution, a bloody act of intimidation.

All perpetrators, organisers and masterminds of this crime will face fair and inevitable punishment, whoever they may be and whoever directed them.

I emphasise once more: we will identify and bring to justice each and every individual who stands behind these terrorists, those who orchestrated this atrocity, this assault against Russia and our people.

We understand what the terrorist threat means. In this regard, we rely on cooperation with all states that sincerely share our pain and are ready to really join forces in the fight against a common enemy, international terrorism and all its manifestations.

Terrorists, murderers, those inhumane individuals who have no nationality and cannot have one, face one and the same gloomy prospect – retribution and oblivion. They have no future."
Vladimir Putin 23 March 2024

"Despite our overwhelming pain and grief, sympathy, and legitimate desire to punish all perpetrators of this inhuman atrocity, the investigation must proceed with the utmost professionalism and objectivity, with no political bias whatsoever.

We know that the crime was perpetrated by radical Islamists. The Islamic World itself has been fighting this ideology for centuries.

But we are also seeing how the United States is using different channels to try and convince its satellites and other countries of the world that, according to its intelligence, there is supposedly no sign of Kiev’s involvement in the Moscow terrorist attack, that the deadly terrorist attack was perpetrated by followers of Islam, members of ISIS, an organisation banned in Russia.

We know whose hands were used to commit this atrocity against Russia and its people. We want to know who ordered it.

We need to obtain answers to a number of questions in the course of joint work of our security services and law enforcement agencies.

For example, do radical and even terrorist Islamist organisations truly have an interest in launching attacks on Russia now that it supports a fair resolution of the escalated conflict in the Middle East? And how do radical Islamists, who present themselves as devout Muslims and follow the so-called pure Islam, justify committing atrocities and serious crimes during the holy month of Ramadan, which is sacred to all Muslims?

We will need to answer these and other, more specific and professional questions in order to carry out an objective investigation into the crime committed in Moscow. One thing is absolutely clear: the heinous crime committed in the Russian capital on March 22 is an act of intimidation, as I said. 

This leads to the next question: who stands to benefit from it? This act of violence is likely just one in a series of attempts by those who have been fighting against our country since 2014, using the neo-Nazi Kiev regime as a pawn. As for the neo-Nazis, it is widely known that they have never hesitated to employ the most repugnant and inhumane methods to achieve their aims...

It is clear that those supporting the Kiev regime do not wish to be implicated in acts of terrorism and be seen as sponsors of terrorism. But there are indeed numerous questions."
Vladimir Putin 25 March 2024

"The Main Investigative Directorate of Russian Investigative Committee has conducted an inspection after the appeal of a group of lawmakers … and other people about the financing of terrorist activities by top officials of the United States and NATO countries. As a result, a criminal case was opened on the grounds of a crime under part 4 of the article 205.1 of the Russian Criminal Code (financing of terrorism)

It has been established that the funds received through commercial organizations, in particular the Burisma Holdings oil and gas company that is operating in Ukraine, have been used over the past few years to carry out terrorist acts in Russia, as well as abroad, in order to eliminate prominent political and public figures and cause economic damage"
Russian Investigative Committee 9 April 2024 

"It is apparent that Ukraine’s missile and UAV attacks on Russian regions are clearly of terrorist nature. We strongly condemn these barbaric terrorist acts aimed at destroying civilian infrastructure, and killing and intimidating civilians. We have no doubt that those who organised and perpetrated these crimes, including their foreign sponsors, will be held to account."
Maria Zakharova,Spokeswoman, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 11 August 2024

Mrs. Zakharova did not say what being "held to account" entails. There was no mention of a criminal case being opened against the "foreign sponsors". It was probably beause there was no hard evidence, and the statements were largely coercive threats. But later new evidence came to light clearly implicating UK officials. The question remains - which ones?

"More facts are emerging about London’s deep involvement in the planning and implementation of the Kiev regime’s terrorist attacks in Russia.

In particular, the examination of the electronic components of the drones which Ukraine used in early August 2024 to attack a fuel depot in the Kamensky District, Rostov Region, has shown that the drones’ flight controllers were pre-programmed near the headquarters of Callen-Lenz GB in Salisbury, UK, and in the hangars of Safran Seats GB in the vicinity of Newport, Wales. These two companies provide technological solutions for the aircraft and aerospace industries.

 The drones were assembled in the Vyshgorod District, Kiev Region, and launched from a site near Slavyansk...

...We regard these facts as evidence of London’s approval of the terrorist methods used by the Kiev regime.

Britain’s actual financing and involvement in preparing attacks on the civilian infrastructure and innocent civilians in Russia makes London fully responsible, on a par with its Kiev puppets, for the continuing bloodshed."
Maria Zakharova, Spokeswoman, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 4 September 2024

"The concerned Russian agencies take Britain’s destructive activity and its relentless striving to escalate the conflict into account. Conclusions are made, and the best response algorithms are considered, but it would not be right to speak openly about the details of this work, for obvious reasons.

We would like to remind you, though, about the warning issued by the Foreign Ministry on May 6, 2024, that any UK military facilities and equipment on Ukrainian territory and beyond could be hit as a response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with British weapons.

We call on London...to immediately stop supporting the inhuman regime and refrain from any other actions that can further escalate the conflict."
Maria Zakharova, Spokeswoman, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 4 September 2024

"Finnish mercenary Topi Huhtala was sentenced to 14 years in absentia for fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine between March 2022 and May 2024. He is on the international wanted list."
Maria Zakharova, 7 August 2024

"On July 31, Moscow’s Basmanny District Court sentenced Ukrainian television presenter Natalya Moseichuk to five years in prison for encouraging violence against Russian officers and their families. She has been on the wanted list since 2023. None of the criminals will evade punishment. They will be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law."
Maria Zakharova, 7 August 2024

Arrest warrants may be issued for members of the press who were complicit in staging some of the false scenarios. Warrants will be issued for those military in NATO who can be identified as supplying weapons such as HIMARS to the Ukrainian military when those NATO military must have quickly come to know that the Ukrainian military were also targeting civilian areas, which would be a war crime; except that Ukraine has not formally declared war on Russia and Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. Which means that the strikes on civilian areas of Russia are acts of state terrorism. Most of these strikes are on civilian areas in the eastern oblasts that voted to leave Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.

NATO is desperately worried about Russia's highly accurate and devastating hypersonic cruise missiles. It said Russia's use of this weapon of "such dual-capable systems to attack civilians and critical civilian infrastructure in Ukraine" is "unacceptable".

First, Russia does not deliberately target civilians.

Second, the attack on Ukraines civilian infrastructure might arguably be a war crime if that infrastructure did not facilitate any military purpose (such as electricity was also used to cook soldiers meals). The USA disagrees - the US government destroyed most of Iraq's civilian infrastructure - power, water, sewerage - as one of the opening moves in it's illegal aggression against Iraq - which, by the way, makes such actions state terrorism, as there was no actual or impending security risk to the US, a country many thousands of kilometers away from Iraq. The USA government argues all those facilities are used to support the Iraqi army and are therefore within the rules of armed conflict. But the conflict itself had no legal basis in self defense or immanent threat.

In any case, the argument is moot, because the Russian strike on power plants in Ukraine is an act of retribution for terrorist acts (targeting civilian areas within Russian borders) by the State of Ukraine, and it is designed to deter Ukraine from further such acts of terrorism.

"The...German opposition is behaving even more aggressively. We will see what they will agree on. We are following this closely. British and American missiles are also used. But this does not change the situation on the battlefield. Yes, they're causing damage to us, of course, that's obvious.

But, in essence, it does not affect the course of hostilities and the consequences that are inevitable for the other side."
Vladimir Putin 13 March 2024

"During one visit to Wiesbaden, Milley spoke with Ukrainian special operations troops — who were working with American Green Berets — in the hope of inspiring them ahead of operations in enemy-controlled areas.

“There should be no Russian who goes to sleep without wondering if they’re going to get their throat slit in the middle of the night,” Milley said, according to an official with knowledge of the event. “You gotta get back there, and create a campaign behind the lines.”"
General Mark A. Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff 2023

"In international organisations, the decision-making mechanism requires approval by the member states. The West has veto power within the UN Security Council, which means that they would block any decision, which runs counter to the interests of their puppets in Kiev.

It is clear for us that this is a Nazi, terrorist regime resulting from a government coup organised with the direct support of the United States."
Sergey Lavrov 19 August 2024

"In September of 2022, however, Akhmetov's assets in Russia were seized for "financing terrorism," because his SCM Holding was giving significant amounts of money to the Ukrainian military. Another Cyprus-based company, Fabcell Limited, appeared at that time as the legal owner of the two mining enterprises."
26 January 2024 

Will the west, and particularly USA, United Kingdom and Germany, stop their illegal state sponsored terrorism? At this date there is no reason to think so. They observe the norms and obligations of anti-terrorist law both selectively and in a duplicitous and outrageously fanciful manner. Historically these deviant states incite existing violence-inclined groups within a country to acts of terror against their government, or a foreign government and then call them 'freedom fighters', 'armed opposition' or similar. When they are no longer useful they may decide they are terrorists after all. Why would they stop perpetrating these crimes? After all, it is cost-free. So far.

Although it seems unlikely, in some far distant future they may stop state-terrorism-by-proxy and wish to honestly and non-selectively cooperate with Russia against terrorism. For now, Russia will cooperate with the west on eliminating terrorism - on its own terms.

" If they want to revive this cooperation, they should begin with reviewing their own approaches and stop creating a new terrorist cell at the heart of Europe. Before that, it was Kosovo. Now, the scale is different: they are using Ukraine for this. This will be their contribution to the efforts against terrorism in the world. Stop supporting Vladimir Zelensky’s terrorist regime."
Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman 27 March 2024

Retribution

...The terrorist operation of the Banderites should remove any taboos from this topic. Let everyone realize this, including the English bastards: we will stop only when we consider it acceptable and profitable for ourselves.
.
Blessed memory to the dead: military and civilians, all who came under heavy fire from neo-Nazis. The best memory of them is a carefully thought-out retribution. Recovery to all the wounded."
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said on 8 August 2024 (Telegram channel)

There is another aspect to reparations for state terrorism: retribution. This means something taken to payback or punish an entity or person for wrong done.

While George considers retaliation should be balanced, 'an eye for an eye', in the case of state terrorism the rules change. Symmetrical retaliation is not enough. There must be a punitive element that levies a far greater cost on the terrorist.

In the case of a terrorist incursion into the territory of a sovereign state an appropriate enduring punishment is annexing some part of the terrorist states territory - if that is appropriate to the geopolitical circumstances.

Ukraine's early August 2024 terrorist incursion into the undisputed Russian territory of Kursk, and the subsequent murder of some civilians and medical staff, and the kidnapping of others is one such example. Dmitry Medvedev said on 8 August 2024 that "another important political and legal consequence of what happened" was that "from this moment on" the special military operation was no longer a limited operation "to return our official territories and punish the Nazis", but to exact " a carefully thought-out retribution". He said retribution should be an official change in the operation to an "openly extraterritorial character". He considered it necessary to openly talk about moving into the currently undisputed part of Ukraine, specifically Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev. Even "to Kiev and beyond." Because Russia has greater military potential than the west, only Russia will decide when retribution is paid in full.

Russia's view of Coercive diplomacy

"...multipolarity and the emergence of new centres of power call for a search for a balance of interests and compromises to maintain stability in the world. Here, of course, diplomacy should play a leading role, especially since we have a backlog of problems which require generally acceptable solutions, including regional conflicts, international terrorism, food security, and the environment.

So, we operate on the premise that we can reach agreements only through diplomatic efforts. Only solutions that enjoy the support of everyone can be sustainable.

Unfortunately, our Western partners led by the United States are not willing to agree on common approaches to resolving problems. Washington and its allies are trying to impose their own approaches.

Their behavior is clearly based on a desire to preserve their centuries-old domination in international affairs despite the objective trends toward a polycentric international order.
This runs contrary to the fact that purely economically and financially, the United States and its closest allies can no longer single-handedly resolve all issues in the global economy and world affairs.

Moreover, various methods of blackmail, coercive, economic, and informational pressure are used in order to artificially retain their dominance and to regain their undisputed positions.

They are not above overt, blatant interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, such as Venezuela. Without hesitating, they publicly threaten Cuba and Nicaragua with the same scenarios. These are the most recent and odious examples."
Sergey Lavrov 12 April 2019 


"It is against our principles to coerce partners, to give them a “with us or against us” choice or to interfere in their domestic affairs.

By the way, this is our principled and crucial difference from Washington and some other capitals that perceive such practices as almost normal. Examples are plentiful. Suffice it to recall the military intervention in Iraq and foreign interference in the Arab Spring developments or support for the armed seizure of power in Ukraine in February 2014"
Sergey Lavrov 3 October 2019


"If the West fulfilled its obligations under the UN Charter to respect the sovereign equality of states as a principle of international relations, it would not now be running around coercing others to impose sanctions against Russia, but would give sovereign countries the opportunity to sort things out for themselves."
Sergey Lavrov 16 June 2022

Russia rejects the notion that one country can impose its will on the rest of the world, that one country can interfere in other countries affairs, change the governments of other countries, blackmail and coerce other countries.

Russia certainly uses coercive diplomacy, but in the context of responding to threats created by others. After all, it is better if the irresponsible 'partner' comes to their senses and backs down rather than Russia having to make a 'military technical response', as they put it. Russia is flexible enough to ride some bad behaviour out (depending on the level of potential consequences of that behaviour), but when it really matters, Russia does not bluff.

"We know how NATO’s ventures end. Let us recall the wars in Serbia, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, crises provoked in other regions. The bloc’s track record of wrongs includes thousands of victims, destruction of states and economies.

This list includes pseudo-judicial reprisals, coups d'état and coloured revolutions. Journalists, artists and athletes, not to mention politicians and businessmen, have been hit by a wave of repressions. Criminal methods are being devised to seize public assets and private property. The bid is placed on extraterritorial sanctions, economic discrimination, unfair competition, “green” barriers, restrictions on the flow of technologies and investments."
Sergey Lavrov 21 February 2024

"In gross violation of the principle of sovereign equality of states, the West is using unilateral coercive measures. Countries that are victims of these illegal sanctions (and there are increasing numbers of them) are well aware that these restrictions harm first and foremost the most vulnerable strata of society. They provoke crises in food and energy markets.

We continue to insist on an immediate and full cessation of the United States’ unprecedented inhumane trade, economic, and financial blockade of Havana and for the lifting of the absurd decision to declare Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism.

Washington must, without any preconditions, abandon its policy of the economic suffocation of Venezuela.

We call for the lifting of unilateral US and EU sanctions against the Syrian Arab Republic, which openly undermine its right to development.

Any coercive measures that circumvent the UN Security Council must be ended, as must be the West's weaponised practice of manipulating the Security Council’s sanctions policy to exert pressure on those they find objectionable.
Sergey Lavrov 23 September 2023


"We signed a declaration on the ways and tools of countering, alleviating and compensating for the negative consequences of unilateral coercive measures.
This is important for pooling the efforts of the international community to overcome the illegal sanctions with which the US and its allies have replaced diplomacy."
Sergey Lavrov 5 December 2023

Signing of the Declaration 'on the Ways and Means to Counter, Mitigate and Redress the Adverse Impacts of Unilateral Coercive Measures',
5 December 2023, by Foreign Affairs Ministers Hossein Amirabdollahian of Iran and Sergey Lavrov of Russia (photo Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

5 December 2023 18:53
Declaration by the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Ways and Means to Counter, Mitigate and Redress the Adverse Impacts of Unilateral Coercive Measures

2476-05-12-2023

The Russian Federation and The Islamic Republic of Iran,

Renewing their commitment to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations,

Recalling General Assembly resolution 2625 (XXV) of 24 October 1970 containing the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations,

Reaffirming General Assembly resolution 3281 (XXIX) of 12 December 1974 containing the Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of States, pursuant to which no State may use or encourage the use of economic, political or any other type of measures to coerce another State in order to obtain from it the subordination of the exercise of its sovereign rights,

Considering that "unilateral coercive measures" refers to coercive measures – other than those enacted by the Security Council acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations – taken by a State, group or association of States, in violation of the principles of sovereign equality of States and non-interference in internal affairs of States, including the pressure in any form, whether political, judicial, financial or economic, in order to compel a change in policy of another State by causing costs and damage to that State and those who support its political course,

Recognizing that unilateral coercive measures in certain cases run counter to Security Council resolutions adopted under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations and violate Security Council prerogatives under the Charter of the United Nations,

Bearing in mind the importance of free trade for the development of States and the well-being of their peoples,

Confirming that unilateral coercive measures create obstacles to the full enjoyment of human rights and impede the full realization of the rights set forth in major international human rights instruments,

Recalling the Declaration of the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Promotion of International Law signed on 16 June 2020 at Moscow,

Declare the following guidelines on the ways and means to counter, mitigate and redress the adverse impacts of unilateral coercive measures:

1. Recourse of any State to unilateral coercive measures is unlawful, contrary to the Charter of the United Nations and international law and will entail international responsibility.
2. Unilateral coercive measures, including those of extraterritorial nature, implemented by the third State, group or association of States in violation of the Charter of the United Nations and international law should not be recognized and implemented.
3. States are strongly urged to refrain from adopting, promulgating and applying the unilateral coercive measures that impede the full achievement of economic and social development, particularly in developing countries.
4. Any foreign judgment arising from the application of national laws, orders and regulations imposing unilateral coercive measures on other States should not be recognized or enforced by national courts.
5. State and private properties and assets, including bank accounts, bonds, real estate as well as consular and diplomatic premises and facilities, shall be immune from and not subject to freezing, forfeiture or any other form of confiscation or restriction arising from the implementation of unilateral coercive measures by any authorities. The jurisdictional immunities of States and the immunity of their properties shall at all time be observed and protected against the implementation of unilateral coercive measures.
6. In the event of economic or financial loss incurred as a result of the adoption of unilateral coercive measures, the State that has inflicted such loss on an affected State, individuals and legal entities by its actions or extraterritorial application of its national laws, shall be primarily held liable for compensation and damages.
7. A road map should be drawn up by States to reduce the dependency of international trade on national currencies that are prone to being used to implement unilateral coercive measures or to sustain a particular State's monetary hegemony over the global economy.
8. Efforts shall be made to create regional or other forms of inter-State financial institutions to strengthen their bilateral and multilateral financial relationships and eliminate the inequitable practices and processes that presently characterize certain global financial and development institutions.
9. No one shall be deprived of liberty or freedom of movement or be subject to any other form of restriction grounded in the unilateral coercive acts, laws or policy. Executive and judicial authorities shall conduct a rigorous review of all documents and evidence presented to them in order to avoid giving unwarranted effect to unilateral coercive measures.
10. The evasion or circumvention of unilateral coercive measures by individuals shall not be considered as a ground for extradition.
11. Under no circumstances trade in humanitarian goods and commodities, such as foodstuffs and agricultural commodities, medicines and medical devices, as well as spare parts, equipment and associated services necessary for the safety of civil aviation shall be subject to any form of direct or indirect coercive economic measure. Accordingly, any impediment to such trade, including impediments to transportation, financial transactions and the transfer of currencies or credit documents, shall be removed.
12. Tangible or intangible cultural properties, cultural, academic and sports activities, revenues arising from art and sport, the income of workers abroad, resources pertaining to the functioning of diplomatic missions and consular posts, contributions to international organizations, funds pertaining to students and academic activities, and other activities of similar character shall at no time be affected or interrupted even temporarily by any unilateral coercive measure.
13. Any unilateral coercive measure that adversely affects population of a state and narrows the humanitarian space by hindering the humanitarian needs of that population or impeding the full enjoyment of that population's human rights, including its essential economic, social and cultural rights as enshrined in international human rights instruments, shall be considered a grave violation of international human rights law.
14. Humanitarian aid in kind or in cash in cases of natural and other disasters shall not be subject to unilateral coercive measures.
15. Unilateral coercive measures in the sphere of culture, restrictions against specific cultural and historical figures based on their nationality, citizenship or political convictions and affiliations, as well as the practice of "cancelling the culture" of specific nations or peoples shall be considered unacceptable.
16. States are encouraged to adopt laws and regulations to enforce the measures stipulated in these guidelines.

Signed at Moscow on 05.12.2023.

For the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov Minister of Foreign Affairs (signature)

For the Islamic Republic of Iran Hossein Amirabdollahian Minister of Foreign Affairs (signature)

"I thank those of you who finds courage to “call a spade a spade”.

I also thank those who continue to spread lies and fake claims about Russia, as all your words are now registered and will be part of future trials and processes.

I will refer to the words of our American colleague who spoke about collective responsibility. I totally concur – it will come to this. And you are absolutely right – the world is watching, and all who committed crimes will be held accountable, no matter whether they are in Kiev, Washington, London or Brussels.

And today, you have the opportunity to see that these processes are gaining momentum in Russia. Rest assured that we will not stop there."
Dmitry Polyanskiy, Chargé d’Affaires, Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations  13 August 2024

"We are convinced that the future belongs to free, multilinear, and diverse cultures, the broadest possible dialogue of humanitarian communities in the multipolar world that is forming today...We believe that creatively-minded and enlightened individuals want to build a fair, sustainable, and secure world. We believe that this is backed by a sincere desire to improve the situation around the world in all the meanings of this word in the Russian language: the world as accord, the world as society, and the world as all humanity and the entire planet......

I see the multipolar world as fair....the wealth possessed by many countries, especially the European states and the United States, was largely based on the injustices of the past and the former world order, on colonialism and slavery. And the technological advantages that part of humanity received at a certain point were not used fairly. They used them to assert their domination. Attempts to do this continue up to this day. ...the goal is to make the world more just. Multipolarity is one way to do this.

What should this world be like? It should consider the interests of all countries and peoples. They are not just taken into account but are arranged in such a way as to balance all interests."

Vladimir Putin 17 November 2023

Removing all the alternatives to coercive diplomacy

"Diplomacy as a means of peaceful settlement of disputes is being sacrificed to violent struggle, “hybrid wars”, total confrontation, and the desire to inflict a strategic defeat on the rival. Double standards, hypocrisy and direct lies are brought into play."
Sergey Lavrov 21 February 2024

A tactic (the arsonist-fireman tactic) under the coercive strategy is to create circumstances where the other party is denied reasonable settlement through normal diplomacy, and is left only with coercive defence.

United Nations Security Council
Russia constantly promotes the primacy of the United Nations Charter as the supreme International law. The Charter is the only legal instrument that the whole world has signed on to - and which is legally part of the body of law of all member nations. Chapter 6 requires all states to try to settle disputes peacefully. Russia spent 7 years trying to find a non-military solution to the West Ukraine - East Ukraine dispute, shepherding through an agreement acceptable to both sides, one that allowed Eastern Ukraine to become an autonomous region.

Remarkably, Russia managed to shepherd the Minsk agreement through the United Nations Security Council endorsement procedure - without the USA blocking it. Russia took the legally required route even although Russia knew NATO was all the while arming and equipping Ukraine for a military solution to the dispute. Russia was also aware of NATOs plans to cut Russia off from the Black Sea and place an American naval base and anti-missile system directly adjacent to Russia's border. (USA would then have an unconstrained ability to successfully launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Russia.)

The USA, for it's part, was well aware that this would be about as acceptable to the Russian Federation as the Russian Federation placing hypersonic missiles in Cuba would be to the United States of America. In other words, it was a deliberate and calculated provocation by the government of United States of America. (More on that here).

"...many people who are mature, sophisticated, knowledgeable, talented are doing their job and many of them, like me, could not imagine… Before 2014, I could not imagine that such a conflict was possible between Russia and Ukraine. If I was told before 2014 that it was possible, I would have called it madness."
Vladimir Putin 17 November 2023 

Provoking a proxy war with the Russian Federation is indeed a form of derangement. And yet the USA did it. The US instigated coup in Ukraine showed insanity is a normal condition in the upper parts of the US political system. Nothing is forbidden. Any adventure, any risk, any aggression, no matter how self-damaging, is possible. 2014 became the point when the Russian government realised to it's horror that these people really are deranged, and they intended to use Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia in order to place missiles directly on Russia's border, as if the lessons of Cuba had not been learned.

Vladimir Putin's 19 June 2020 piece published in the USA reads as a reflection on the destructiveness of war, but it also outlines the hard reality of war and, most import of all, the documented duplicity of other countries in not acting together to end Hitler's aggression at a very early stage. Which then resulted in disproportionately massive death and destruction in the Soviet Union. He was quietly drawing attention to the obvious comparison with Ukraine's armament and NATO expansion east, and the fact that many countries could have ended it peacefully at a very early stage (all NATO decisions are supposedly by consensus - nothing is agreed until everybody agrees).

The article was signalling that Russia now expected that all further appeasement of NATO was pointless. That all further attempts to revive the Minsk agreements that Germany and France had crippled, and that Ukraine had largely ignored, would simply buy yet more time to make NATO's proxy force even stronger. President Putin's article was signalling that Russia now expected Russia would be backed into a corner, and war was inevitable if Russia's final effort at diplomacy failed.

By June 2020 the draft wording of Russia's Security Treaty with both USA and NATO would have been well advanced.  A last ditch attempt at breathing life back into the Minsk Agreement was made.

But the west only pretended to support an agreement that had been worked out after protracted Russian diplomatic efforts (for example 7 June 2021, 16 June 2021, 20 August 2021, 26 September 2021,  22 October 2021 etc etc). Even as time was running out - Russia could see the Ukrainian military preparations to imminently re-take Crimea, and the west knew they could - the west continued to actively undermined all efforts to put the Minsk 2 agreement fully into effect.

"On October 11, 2021, President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone with President of France Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel about revitalising the Normandy Four, starting with a discussion of possible arrangements at the level of foreign ministers.

Following on from what President Putin said regarding the importance of meaningful contacts based on the implementation of all previous agreements, rather than a meeting for the sake of appearances, on October 29 we sent a draft final document of the potential ministerial meeting in the Normandy format to our colleagues in Berlin, Paris and Kiev. It was an honest and comprehensive document that covered all the main problems which are hindering the settlement of the internal Ukrainian conflict, primarily the Ukrainian authorities’ refusal to lift a finger to fulfil their obligations and the UN Security Council resolution.

On October 30, 2021, I had a meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rome. He recalled that the leaders of Russia, France and Germany discussed on the phone the need to hold a ministerial meeting and proposed doing this in Paris on November 11, 2021. I replied that we would like to see our colleagues’ reaction to the substantial proposals we had made, because substance is more important than any formal agreement to hold a meeting and pose for photographs and television cameras as a sign that the Normandy format is effective. We don’t need such window dressing.

I asked if Jean-Yves Le Drian had seen the proposals we sent to Paris. He replied that he hadn’t had a chance to see them yet and again insisted that we should meet on November 11.

I said again that, first, we are waiting for a reaction to our essential proposals.

Besides, even if the agreements matured and the essential part [of the agreements] was ready, I had a full agenda in Moscow on November 11, including a visit by the foreign minister of a friendly country. Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also said publicly that it is physically impossible for us to attend the November 11 meeting.

Nevertheless, the other day we received a joint letter from the foreign ministers of Germany and France where November 11 was indicated as almost the only option. This is simply ill manners, let alone contrary to diplomatic ethics.

We sent them our additional arguments in favour of addressing the essence of the matter rather than just ticking the box.

We enumerated the concrete steps which the Kiev regime is taking to torpedo the Minsk agreements.

Moreover, Kiev is discussing a draft law that will prohibit Ukrainian officials from implementing these agreements.

President Putin mentioned this in a telephone conversation with the leaders of Germany and France. They assured him that they would do their best to prevent the adoption of that law, but ultimately even the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission endorsed it.

This does no credit to this organisation, which still wants to be respected. This is the situation.

There will be no meeting on November 11. We did not discuss any other date. First of all, we need to understand the potential outcome we can expect from such a meeting and whether it will be based on the implementation by Ukraine and its leadership of all the previous Normandy format decisions, primarily the decisions adopted by the Normandy Four at the Paris summit in December 2019"
Sergey Lavrov 8 November 2021

"When we discuss the Donbass issue in the Normandy format with our German friends, we explain that it is Kiev that must implement the Minsk agreements (this is what is written in them). Until recently, we were told to leave it alone for the time being. They said: Let’s simply implement the agreements.

How is it possible to implement them if this requirement is not addressed to the party that must do it?"
Sergey Lavrov, 14 January 2022   

The intra-Ukrainian settlement process was analysed in detail with a shared understanding of the inviolability of and lack of alternative to the Minsk Package of Measures.

The Russian side stressed that Berlin's attempts to portray Moscow as a party to the conflict are unacceptable.
Press release on Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s talks with Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany Annalena Baerbock 18 January 2022

The 18th of January meeting with Germany was the final attempt to persuade the Germans to make their proteges in Ukraine fulfill the Minsk agreements. Germany and France were the guarantors of the Minsk Agreements, solely responsible for seeing to it that Ukraine fulfilled the terms. By this date Russia knew that the west was using delaying tactics. Russia knew that Annalena Baerbock had no intention of making a U turn in the cause of peace. Russia was plainly exposing the culpability and duplicity of the west, but, in particular, Germany's historic part.

For the west and USA, all the stalling, the evasions, the endless regurgitation of settled matters, the US and west's bad-faith call for yet more 'negotiations' , the Ukrainian intransigence - all this was simply a ruse to buy time to complete the assembly of a formidable force to settle the issue of the breakaway Russian-speaking Eastern regions and Crimea by violent means - in complete violation of the Security Council resolution.

"NATO continues to escalate the situation on our borders. The Alliance refuses to review our proposals for defusing tensions and preventing dangerous incidents. We have suggested specific measures on these matters. They continue to actively build up military potentials in Eastern Europe, including in close proximity to Russian borders. Every day, we hear vociferous statements threatening Russia....

...Against this backdrop, our remarks at the session and our contacts with our Western colleagues were mostly aimed at explaining and promoting the initiative of President of Russia Vladimir Putin which he voiced for the first time at an expanded meeting of the Foreign Ministry’s Collegium and repeated yesterday in the Kremlin at a ceremony of presenting the credentials of foreign ambassadors.

This initiative notes the need to draft guarantees for preventing the further aggravation of the situation and stopping the creation of new threats for the Russian Federation.

Specifically, the goal has been set not to allow NATO’s further eastward expansion or the deployment of new weapons systems on Russia’s western borders, which would threaten the Russian Federation’s security. The President of Russia underscored this aspect yesterday.

Today, I stressed the fact that we are interested in agreements heeding security interests of all countries without exception. We don’t want any unilateral privileges.

We will insist that these agreements be examined seriously, that they should not be shrugged off and rejected, as our Western colleagues have done many times.

This includes their promises regarding the non-expansion of NATO. During the reunification of Germany, an agreement was reached with the German Democratic Republic that no military infrastructure would be deployed in East Germany. The same was stated in the Russia-NATO Founding Act and many other documents. The West ignored everything that took on the form of political obligations.

Therefore, we insist that agreements mentioned by President Putin, whose conclusion we will demand, should be legally binding and obligatory for all parties.

We will send the relevant proposals to our Western colleagues in the near future, and we expect them to treat this matter in earnest."
Sergey Lavrov 2 December 2021 

These are non-negotiable demands.

The language is uncompromising.  Russia very rarely resorts to language this strong. At this point, the west has almost succeeded in running out the clock for diplomacy - which is, of course, their goal. The west knows exactly what the Russian Foreign Minister says, and this warning tells them they need only treat President Putins proposal - whatever it is - with contempt and they will get the proxy war they wanted all along, the proxy war they spent years preparing for.

"During these years, the Kiev authorities have ignored and sabotaged the implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures for a peaceful settlement of the crisis and ultimately late last year openly refused to implement it.

They also started to implement plans to join NATO. Moreover, the Kiev authorities also announced their intention to have nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles. This was a real threat. With foreign technical support, the pro-Nazi Kiev regime would have obtained weapons of mass destruction in the foreseeable future and, of course, would have targeted them against Russia.

Our numerous warnings that such developments posed a direct threat to the security of Russia were rejected with open and cynical arrogance by Ukraine and its US and NATO patrons.

In other words, all our diplomatic efforts were fully in vain. We have been left with no peaceful alternative to settle the problems that developed through no fault of ours. In this situation, we were forced to begin this special military operation.

The movement of Russian forces against Kiev and other Ukrainian cities is not connected with a desire to occupy that country. This is not our goal, as I pointed out openly in my statement on February 24.

...encouraged by the United States and other Western countries, Ukraine was purposefully preparing for a scenario of force, a massacre and an ethnic cleansing in Donbass. A massive onslaught on Donbass and later Crimea was just a matter of time. However, our Armed Forces have shattered these plans."

Vladimir Putin March 16, 2022

"We said many times “Do not do this, let's do that, we are ready for talks.”

In the end, they prompted us to try to use force to end the war that they started in 2014. They keep telling us, “You started the war, Putin is the aggressor.”

No, they are the aggressors, they started this war, and we are trying to stop it, but we are compelled to do so with the use of the Armed Forces.
Vladimir Putin June 13 2023 

The west diligently blocked or destroyed every effort to achieve peaceful settlement of the conflict. The draft security treaty, the 'ultimatum' - and it was clearly expressed as such (if the west refused to address Russia's security concerns, then Russia would be left with no other option but to solve it using "military technical means") was duly cast aside.

Ending Russia is the west's objective. And always has been. The Russian President, by then backed by the west onto up to the very edge of a vortex of unwanted events, gave a speech to the friends and the citizens of Russia, part lament, part resolve.

"It is a fact that over the past 30 years we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe.

In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.

Why is this happening? Where did this insolent manner of talking down from the height of their exceptionalism, infallibility and all-permissiveness come from? What is the explanation for this contemptuous and disdainful attitude to our interests and absolutely legitimate demands?

The answer is simple. Everything is clear and obvious. In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union grew weaker and subsequently broke apart. That experience should serve as a good lesson for us, because it has shown us that the paralysis of power and will is the first step towards complete degradation and oblivion.

We lost confidence for only one moment, but it was enough to disrupt the balance of forces in the world.

As a result, the old treaties and agreements are no longer effective. Entreaties and requests do not help. Anything that does not suit the dominant state, the powers that be, is denounced as archaic, obsolete and useless. At the same time, everything it regards as useful is presented as the ultimate truth and forced on others regardless of the cost, abusively and by any means available. Those who refuse to comply are subjected to strong-arm tactics.

What I am saying now does not concerns only Russia, and Russia is not the only country that is worried about this. This has to do with the entire system of international relations, and sometimes even US allies.

The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a redivision of the world, and the norms of international law that developed by that time...came in the way of those who declared themselves the winners of the Cold War.

Of course, practice, international relations and the rules regulating them had to take into account the changes that took place in the world and in the balance of forces. However, this should have been done professionally, smoothly, patiently, and with due regard and respect for the interests of all states and one’s own responsibility.

Instead, we saw a state of euphoria created by the feeling of absolute superiority, a kind of modern absolutism, coupled with the low cultural standards and arrogance of those who formulated and pushed through decisions that suited only themselves. The situation took a different turn.

There are many examples of this. First a bloody military operation was waged against Belgrade, without the UN Security Council’s sanction but with combat aircraft and missiles used in the heart of Europe. The bombing of peaceful cities and vital infrastructure went on for several weeks. I have to recall these facts, because some Western colleagues prefer to forget them, and when we mentioned the event, they prefer to avoid speaking about international law, instead emphasising the circumstances which they interpret as they think necessary.

Then came the turn of Iraq, Libya and Syria. The illegal use of military power against Libya and the distortion of all the UN Security Council decisions on Libya ruined the state, created a huge seat of international terrorism, and pushed the country towards a humanitarian catastrophe, into the vortex of a civil war, which has continued there for years. The tragedy, which was created for hundreds of thousands and even millions of people not only in Libya but in the whole region, has led to a large-scale exodus from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe.

A similar fate was also prepared for Syria. The combat operations conducted by the Western coalition in that country without the Syrian government’s approval or UN Security Council’s sanction can only be defined as aggression and intervention.

But the example that stands apart from the above events is, of course, the invasion of Iraq without any legal grounds. They used the pretext of allegedly reliable information available in the United States about the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. To prove that allegation, the US Secretary of State held up a vial with white power, publicly, for the whole world to see, assuring the international community that it was a chemical warfare agent created in Iraq. It later turned out that all of that was a fake and a sham, and that Iraq did not have any chemical weapons. Incredible and shocking but true.

We witnessed lies made at the highest state level and voiced from the high UN rostrum. As a result we see a tremendous loss in human life, damage, destruction, and a colossal upsurge of terrorism.

Overall, it appears that nearly everywhere, in many regions of the world where the United States brought its law and order, this created bloody, non-healing wounds and the curse of international terrorism and extremism. I have only mentioned the most glaring but far from only examples of disregard for international law.

This array includes promises not to expand NATO eastwards even by an inch. To reiterate: they have deceived us, or, to put it simply, they have played us.

Sure, one often hears that politics is a dirty business. It could be, but it shouldn’t be as dirty as it is now, not to such an extent.

This type of con-artist behaviour is contrary not only to the principles of international relations but also and above all to the generally accepted norms of morality and ethics.

Where is justice and truth here? Just lies and hypocrisy all around.

Incidentally, US politicians, political scientists and journalists write and say that a veritable “empire of lies” has been created inside the United States in recent years. It is hard to disagree with this – it is really so. But one should not be modest about it: the United States is still a great country and a system-forming power. All its satellites not only humbly and obediently say yes to and parrot it at the slightest pretext but also imitate its behaviour and enthusiastically accept the rules it is offering them.

Therefore, one can say with good reason and confidence that the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same “empire of lies.”

As for our country, after the disintegration of the USSR, given the entire unprecedented openness of the new, modern Russia, its readiness to work honestly with the United States and other Western partners, and its practically unilateral disarmament, they immediately tried to put the final squeeze on us, finish us off, and utterly destroy us. This is how it was in the 1990s and the early 2000s, when the so-called collective West was actively supporting separatism and gangs of mercenaries in southern Russia.

What victims, what losses we had to sustain and what trials we had to go through at that time before we broke the back of international terrorism in the Caucasus! We remember this and will never forget.

Properly speaking, the attempts to use us in their own interests never ceased until quite recently: they sought to destroy our traditional values and force on us their false values that would erode us, our people from within, the attitudes they have been aggressively imposing on their countries, attitudes that are directly leading to degradation and degeneration, because they are contrary to human nature. This is not going to happen. No one has ever succeeded in doing this, nor will they succeed now.

Despite all that, in December 2021, we made yet another attempt to reach agreement with the United States and its allies on the principles of European security and NATO’s non-expansion. Our efforts were in vain.

The United States has not changed its position. It does not believe it necessary to agree with Russia on a matter that is critical for us. The United States is pursuing its own objectives, while neglecting our interests.

Of course, this situation begs a question: what next, what are we to expect?

If history is any guide, we know that in 1940 and early 1941 the Soviet Union went to great lengths to prevent war or at least delay its outbreak. To this end, the USSR sought not to provoke the potential aggressor until the very end by refraining or postponing the most urgent and obvious preparations it had to make to defend itself from an imminent attack. When it finally acted, it was too late.

As a result, the country was not prepared to counter the invasion by Nazi Germany, which attacked our Motherland on June 22, 1941, without declaring war. The country stopped the enemy and went on to defeat it, but this came at a tremendous cost.

The attempt to appease the aggressor ahead of the Great Patriotic War proved to be a mistake which came at a high cost for our people. In the first months after the hostilities broke out, we lost vast territories of strategic importance, as well as millions of lives.

We will not make this mistake the second time. We have no right to do so.

Those who aspire to global dominance have publicly designated Russia as their enemy.

They did so with impunity. Make no mistake, they had no reason to act this way.

It is true that they have considerable financial, scientific, technological, and military capabilities. We are aware of this and have an objective view of the economic threats we have been hearing, just as our ability to counter this brash and never-ending blackmail. Let me reiterate that we have no illusions in this regard and are extremely realistic in our assessments.

As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.

At the same time, technology, including in the defence sector, is changing rapidly. One day there is one leader, and tomorrow another, but a military presence in territories bordering on Russia, if we permit it to go ahead, will stay for decades to come or maybe forever, creating an ever mounting and totally unacceptable threat for Russia.

Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year.

Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. In other words, they have been toughening their position.

We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments. This would be an absolutely irresponsible thing to do for us.

Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us.

Of course, the question is not about NATO itself. It merely serves as a tool of US foreign policy. The problem is that in territories adjacent to Russia, which I have to note is our historical land, a hostile “anti-Russia” is taking shape. Fully controlled from the outside, it is doing everything to attract NATO armed forces and obtain cutting-edge weapons.

For the United States and its allies, it is a policy of containing Russia, with obvious geopolitical dividends.

For our country, it is a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a nation. This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact.

It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty.

It is the red line which we have spoken about on numerous occasions. They have crossed it.
Vladimir Putin 24 February 2022

"...if the coercing power pursues ambitious objectives that go beyond its own vital or important interests, and if its demands infringe on vital or important interests of the adversary, then the asymmetry of interests and balance of motivation will favor the adversary and make successful application of coercive diplomacy much more difficult."
Alexander George

When diplomatic channels are closed edited 24 September 2024

I have outlined the fact that the United States government's strategy is to coerce the Russian Federation into obeying the Government of the United States. One of the tactics the United States government uses is to refuse to listen to anything the Russian Federation has to say about the relationship between the two countries. The United States Government very rudely and aggressively reduced diplomatic relations down to almost nothing.

This is a carefully contrived 'signal' to the Russian Federation that the Russian Federation is an inconsequential state, a state with the economy only the size of Spain, a State that is corrupt, weak, etc (add any other vivid and purulent propaganda you can think of).

"...it is important to emphasise once again that the greatest danger now lies in the fact that acting in line with the aggressive course of the United States and NATO on inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia in the Ukrainian conflict that they had provoked, they keep raising the stakes and are increasingly drawn deeper into military confrontation.

Clearly, this kind of reckless policy may lead to a direct armed clash between the nuclear powers. I don’t think there is any need to go over the nature of the strategic risks arising in connection with this and the potentially catastrophic nature of the further development of events according to the worst-case scenario.

Fully aware of the seriousness of the situation, we are sending, tirelessly and consistently, signals trying to sober up Western countries.

However, the problem is that, overcome with anti-Russia hysteria and absorbed in the all-out hybrid war against our country, the West is not ready to see our position adequately.

So, the responsibility for the further degradation of the situation lies fully with the Western capitals.

For our part, we can firmly reiterate that Russia is determined to uphold its security interests.

We recommend the West not to have any doubt about it.
Maria Zakharova, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, 21 June 2023

"...it is evidence of arrogance, frenzy and impudence of our Western partners, who think they can act with impunity. Washington said, “Attack!” and all the countries that are expelling our diplomats saw that anything goes, that they can thrash and ban Russia, cancel its culture, and so on.

Actually, there is nothing we can talk about with the Western countries. Our embassies, although depleted, have kept on some staff.

But there is nothing to talk about, because the West is boycotting any contacts and has shut down all channels of communication, which were once numerous between Russia and the EU and between Russia and NATO. Instead of using these channels, which should be used at a time of crisis first of all, they have shut them down. It’s their loss.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink, as the saying goes. Sanctions and bans are adopted, and we hear their haughty and pompous shouts that the sixth, sevenths and eights packages of sanctions are coming.

Do you think we will want to meet with them or discuss anything with them in this situation? No, we won’t. We have other partners we can talk with."
Sergey Lavrov 17 May 2022

"What arrogant Anglo-Saxon dimwits fail to admit, though, is that you can only test someone’s patience for so long. It will turn out in the end that certain moderate Western analysts were right when they warned: ‘True, the Russians are not likely to use this response, although… it’s still a possibility. Besides, they may use new delivery vehicles with conventional payloads.’

And then – it’s over. A giant blot of molten-grey mass in the place where ‘the mother of Russian cities’ [historical name of Kiev] once stood. Holy shit, it's impossible, but it happened…"
Dmitry Medvedev 14 September 2024, Telegram

"Russia has explained in detail in what circumstances we will be ready to resume the dialogue on strategic stability: when mutual respect, equality and advancing towards finding a balance of interests will be ensured. The Americans think differently

....they are helping Ukrainians to aim modern types of long-range weapons at our civilian and infrastructure facilities and at the same time declare: let them shoot at each other while we will sit down to talk. This is ridiculous. This does not do credit to those who are involved in foreign policy in the Washington administration.

They have lost all diplomatic competences...Unfortunately, we have what we have. This irreparable confidence of the United States in its own righteousness, omnipotence and impunity has led to the fact that the US foreign policy is now led by people who do not know how to do diplomacy...The United States has lost diplomacy as a method for establishing contacts, holding candid discussions, and identifying ways to strike a compromise.

...They are accustomed to making demands. They have even stooped to rudely and publicly telling China what to do. Reportedly, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu had a telephone conversation with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. The US official said Washington was dissatisfied with Beijing supporting Moscow. How can they say such a thing to the great power of China? "
Sergey Lavrov 28 March 2024

"...unparalleled comparative advantage in building partnerships, coalitions, and alliances to strengthen deterrence, while using diplomacy to de-escalate tensions, reduce risks of new conflicts, and set a long-term foundation for stability"
United States government National Security Strategy October 2022

"Question: Article 5 of NATO’s Washington Treaty says that an attack on any NATO member will be considered an attack against them all. Article 4 of the CSTO is similar: “In the event of aggression (armed attack that threatens a member’s security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty) against any of the participating states, all other participating states, at the request of this state, will immediately provide the necessary assistance, including military assistance.” Isn't this the case now?

Sergey Lavrov: It says “at the request of this state.” We have not requested any assistance from anyone. We believe we have every resource to attain the special military operation’s goals, and to end the war launched by the West using the Ukrainian regime after the coup d'état.

We can see that it is NATO fighting us....But Russia will resolve all the issues itself...

The CSTO responded in 24 hours when President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev requested help in stabilising the situation in January 2022, during the period of an externally inspired surge in violence, attempts to seize state buildings. As Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to look for ways to stabilise the Caucasus, the CSTO is also ready to help...

Question: Do we potentially retain the ability to turn to CSTO allies for help in the event that the aggression against Russia escalates?

Sergey Lavrov: It says that any party has this right. I have already answered why Russia does not use it. It should not have to do so in the future. We see no need in terms of the equipment of our Armed Forces and how they operate in the space of the special military operation.

The CSTO is now developing peacekeeping capabilities at the initiative of Kazakhstan. One of the Under-Secretaries-General has also been designated responsible for peacekeeping, and there is the Agreement on Peacekeeping Activities of the CSTO (2007)...
Sergey Lavrov 2 February 2023 

"They [USA] are using various far-fetched pretexts to deploy ground-based anti-missile systems in close proximity to Russian borders.

Projects are rapidly unfolding to develop marine vessels, which regularly appear near the Russian coast.

The United States is also implementing plans to develop the space segment of its global missile defence system, which actually envisages the deployment of anti-missile strike weapons in space in the future.

In addition, in the context of their missile defence efforts, Washington included, at the doctrinal level, the possibility of carrying out “disarming” strikes against the missile capabilities of those countries that the United States considers to be its adversaries.

It should be understood that attempts to present the global missile defence system as a purely defensive project are nothing more than a smoke screen.

By building up its anti-missile capabilities, the United States mainly seeks to gain a decisive advantage by creating conditions for dealing the first strike to the enemy and protecting itself from retaliatory actions. This can and is already leading to serious consequences... It is upsetting the strategic balance of power in the world and spurring an arms race, including missiles..

For our part, we intend to act in accordance with the task set by the President of Russia to ensure a conflict-free coexistence by maintaining the balance of power and strategic stability.

In our dialogue with Washington on this track, we promote the concept of a comprehensive review of factors affecting strategic stability, embracing all weapons capable of solving strategic problems – nuclear and conventional, offensive and defensive. At the same time, when we discuss strategic defensive systems, we primarily mean due consideration of the missile defence factor.."
Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova 3 May 2021

"We are also aware of the Western attempts to draw us into an arms race, thereby exhausting us, mirroring the strategy they successfully employed with the Soviet Union in the 1980s. Let me remind you that in 1981–1988, the Soviet Union’s military spending amounted to 13 percent of GDP.

Our current imperative is to bolster our defence industry in such a way as to increase our country’s scientific, technological and industrial capabilities. We must allocate resources as judiciously as possible, fostering an efficient economy for the Armed Forces, and maximising the return on each ruble of our defence spending.

It is crucial for us to expedite the resolution of social, demographic, infrastructural and other problems we face while simultaneously advancing the quality of equipment for the Russian Army and Navy."
Vladimir Putin 29 February 2024

"If the United States and its allies ultimately show that they are ready for this, there will be a chance for reaching new viable agreements with them in the areas of strategic stability and arms control.

We have not abandoned the possibility of signing international treaties to regulate our relations with the West in the field of strategic stability in the future, after we attain the goals of the ongoing special military operation.

I would like to repeat that this is only possible based on respect for Russia’s fundamental interests. This is the underlying message of the Foreign Policy Concept.

[Commenting on the possibility of a START Treaty including France and Britain] This possibility does not exist in the current situation.

Arms control is inseparable from the general geopolitical and military strategic situation. Any serious steps in this area are always linked with constructive political processes in relations between the contracting parties.

There should be at least mutual realisation of the need for dialogue-based solutions and the political will to encourage the sides to conduct substantive talks based on compromise.

The West is not doing anything like this.

On the contrary, the US and its allies are waging a total hybrid war against Russia in a bid to inflict a strategic military defeat on our country and to try to contain it politically and economically. They hope that they will eventually manage to subordinate a weakened Russia to Western dictate from a position of strength.

However, as history has shown many times, this approach to Russia has no prospects for success."
Director of the Foreign Ministry Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control Vladimir Yermakov 25 April 2023

"...we ourselves have always had to factor in what Russia may do in response to any given thing that we or others do, or the Ukrainians do, and we have."
Anthony Blinken, USA Secretary of State, 10 September 2023

"we haven’t encouraged and we haven’t enabled any use of weapons outside of Ukraine’s territory."
Anthony Blinken, USA Secretary of State, 10 September 2023 


"In this [security] sphere, we have to primarily focus on US programmes and projects that are a matter of concern for us.

This includes the US global anti-missile defence, the prospects of US deploying offensive weapons in space, the prompt global strike programme, and many other questions...It would be impossible to come to a common denominator on matters of strategic stability without taking these questions into consideration.

The Americans refuse to listen to us when we try explaining why this matters.

They adopted an arrogant and mentoring tone, claiming that from now on the United States will discuss arms control only when decisions help strengthen its own security..

 Let me reiterate that we do not really understand whether the Americans are interested in keeping arms control in place as a means of ensuring security.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov 17 April 2020 "

It is much better if the US government keeps arms control treaties, because it helps both sides understand the 'line of thinking', politically and diplomatically. It increases predictability. But when one side arrogates to itself a position of imaginary 'dominance' over the other side, as the United States Government officials do, then Russia has to assume the worst possible outcome and act accordingly - especially when the Americans are found to be not only completely untrustworthy and duplicitous, but also doctrinally determined to destroy the Russian Federation by all means short of nuclear war.

All conflicts end in diplomatic negotiations (surrender is also a form of negotiation). The ultimate coercive 'diplomatic' strategy is to impose violent conflict on the the other country (directly or indirectly) in order to 'deter' that country from following an independent foreign policy.

The violent punishment can be inflicted directly by the US, as they did in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria (most recently), or through proxy forces armed, financed, and instructed by the US, or by US agents and proxies. The proxy forces the US and its complicit 'allies' use to instigate violence are armed non-government terrorists (labelled as 'armed rebels' or 'freedom fighters' by their western backers).

For the first time, USA has extended this long-arm punitive technique to 'groom' a countries population (Ukraine) to incite hatred against another country, help create conditions for a civil war, help instigate a violent coup (the 2014 Maiden), incite a countries politicians to choose war over diplomacy, then arm, train and coach its military to act as the US proxy armed force. All the while using it's Ukrainian proxy's territory to threaten the adjacent country (Russia) with nuclear-capable cruise missiles and major conventional armed force accumulations placed directly on the border of that major military power (Russia). Even after the west was warned time and again not to do it.

Russia has no choice but to show that it is not deterred by the US government coercive efforts.

As the Russian government has repeatedly stated, the conflict ends as soon as the US government (and its western aides) stop pumping weapons and money into Ukraine. Only the US has the power to stop the conflict (it could be done within a day). But the USA has no incentive to stop the deaths.

The death of Russian soldiers is a coercive 'punishment' meted out to Russia (Ukrainian deaths are not material to the USA) to convince Russia to enter arms control agreements on terms favorable to the USA.

Russia's foreign policy concept, it's diplomatic conception of how it will interact with other states is that Russia, in a nutshell, is 'proud and free'. It won't kneel before anyone - and never has. Not to the French, not to the Germans. Former Warsaw Pact countries understand this very well. The US government has zero interest in understanding Russia, except to deliberately rub salt into the wounds left by world war 2.

Instigating conflict is contrary to one of the principles outlined in the 'Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations' (October 1970):

"Every State has the duty to refrain from organizing, instigating, assisting or participating in acts of civil strife or terrorist acts in another State or acquiescing in organized activities within its territory directed towards the commission of such acts, when the acts referred to in the present paragraph involve a threat or use of force."
'Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations'

"The Russian side noted that official US assurances that the United States does not encourage such attacks on Russia are hypocritical and mendacious in the context of direct evidence showing that weapons and equipment, supplied by the Pentagon for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, help prepare and perpetrate terrorist attacks by Ukrainian militants."
Russian Federation Press release on demarche to US Embassy in Moscow 26 May 2023

The USA escalation techniques, which started small and built up, have run their course.
The war that the US planned to launch on Russia - a war the US knew the Ukraine could not win - has not forced Russia to comply with US government wishes.

"...In the 'try and see' approach...a demand is made...it employs one limited coercive threat or action and waits to see whether it will persuade the opponent before making another threat or taking another step.

...the gradual turning of the screw [strategy] relies on the threat of a step-by-step increase in coercive pressure rather than of escalation to strong, decisive military action..."
Alexander George

Yes, the US has created conditions for all NATO countries to carry nuclear bombs, and to hold bigger NATO exercises on Russia's border while carrying dummy bombs. But this is kabuki. Russia has neutralised these theatrics with nuclear armed submarines patrolling off the US coast. It will be vastly expanding the number of aircraft capable of carrying hypersonic weapons - modifying its advanced fighter aircraft for this task. These aircraft will be based in the Middle East, in Syria, at least. Certainly in Kalingrad, adjacent to Germany. The US can make as many 'provocative acts' as it likes, it makes no difference to Russian power.

"Blinken Booby Trap 6.  Until now, the paper declares, “US and NATO current force posture is limited, proportionate, and in full compliance with commitments under the Russia-NATO Founding Act.”    

But this “proportionate compliance” is about to change. “Further Russian increases to force posture or further aggression against Ukraine will force the United States and our Allies to strengthen our defensive posture”.

Blinken’s formulation implies that unless Russia withdraws from its own borders, including Crimea, the US proposes to respond with its own “proportionate” “multi-domain military buildup, more assertive posture, novel military capabilities, and provocative activities.”

This is camouflage for US and Canadian trainers, mercenaries and special forces at the Donbass Contact Line; Turkish and Israeli drones and new NATO ordnance in the Ukrainian line of attack; US tripwire deployments to Germany, Poland, and Romania; and Anglo-American cyber and information warfare.

Attached to this booby trap is this proviso in the NATO document released in Madrid last week. Lacking a title, this public release is tagged “RESTRICTED” for which there is no US equivalent or restriction.

In this document, the US and NATO now demand that Russia accept Kiev’s rejection of the Minsk Agreements for military and political resolution of the Donbass conflict; as well as Georgian territorial claims on Abkhazia and Ossetia, and Moldova’s claims against Transnistria.   - Source: https://elpais.com/

John Helmer, Dances with Bears - 'Blinken's Booby Traps', 06 February 2022

"The starkest variant of the [coercive diplomacy] strategy includes all three ingredients of a full-fledged classic ultimatum:

(1) a demand on the opponent
(2) a time limit or sense of urgency for compliance with the demand
(3) a threat of punishment for noncompliance that is credible and sufficiently potent to convince the opponent that compliance is preferable to other courses of action.

...An ultimatum may be inappropriate, infeasible, or even highly risky in a particular situation."
Alexander George.

Article 2
Belligerents are forbidden to move troops or convoys of either munitions of war or supplies across the territory of a neutral Power.

Article 3
Belligerents are likewise forbidden to:

(a) Erect on the territory of a neutral Power a wireless telegraphy station or other apparatus for the purpose of communicating with belligerent forces on land or sea;
(b) Use any installation of this kind established by them before the war on the territory of a neutral Power for purely military purposes, and which has not been opened for the service of public messages.

Article 7
A neutral Power is not called upon to prevent the export or transport, on behalf of one or other of the belligerents, of arms, munitions of war, or, in general, of anything which can be of use to an army or a fleet.

Article 16
The nationals of a State which is not taking part in the war are considered as neutrals.

Hague Conventions: Convention (V) respecting the Rights and Duties of Neutral Powers and Persons in Case of War on Land. 18 October 1907.

"There is no doubt that the West has declared war on us. They are not hiding it.

Even though they are saying they are only sending weapons to Ukraine, which does all the fighting. Everyone knows it’s a lie.

Western instructors oversee the planning carried out by the Ukrainian General Staff, help with targeting the strikes (we are 100-percent certain of that) and do much more.

According to our data, the European External Action Service has drawn up recommendations for Ukraine, which rely on the assumption that winning by the methods Ukraine is using now is impossible, and it will lose. In light of this, more long-range weapons should be made available to Ukraine for it to be able to target the “heart” of Russia (as the EU puts it) and thus sow confusion and panic, and undermine the trust of the people.

Isn't that direct participation in the war? Of course, it is. Strategy is what matters most in any war, and strategy is decided far away from Kiev."
Sergey Lavrov 16 February 2024



"Vladimir Putin: They have established a headquarters abroad, outside Ukraine, which is effectively planning all these operations. Is that right?

Sergei Shoigu: Yes, Mr President, and this goes beyond external management; it entails control of all the forces. They have their instructors everywhere....

...All of last year’s plans for a large-scale, extensive counteroffensive were made in the United States and by NATO instructors, who devised very detailed strategies. Therefore, their defeat came as a serious shock to them, because the methods, technologies and patterns they had likely used elsewhere and tried to apply here too have failed."
Sergei Shoigu, Defense Minister, reporting to President Vladimir Putin, 20 February 2024

“...yes, we have to do more to defend Ukraine. Yes, we have to do more also on tanks...But the most important, and the crucial part is, that we do it together and that we do not do the blame game in Europe, because we are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other.”
Annalena Baerbock, Foreign Minister Germany, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, 24 January 2023

"The collective West led by the US and the Anglo-Saxons is conducting an undeclared hybrid war against Russia. It is using the Kiev regime as an instrument of this war. The Ukrainian Nazis are supplied with modern weapons and ammunition; instructors and mercenaries are sent to Ukraine. The enemies are openly declaring their goals – to defeat the Russian army on the battlefield, undermine our political and economic sovereignty and push Russia to the periphery of global politics"
Sergey Lavrov 19 June 2023


"The bottom line on the “costs” of supporting Ukraine:
1️. Zero American service members in combat.
2️. Zero American service members killed in Ukraine.
3️. A very small percentage of the American defense budget has been spent to assist Ukraine’s military.
4️.The Ukrainian military ...is systematically dismantling Putin’s Army.
 Good deal for America and all who love freedom."
American Senator 15 July 2023


"the Western countries' military personnel have been present in Ukraine for a long time. They had been there before the coup d'état, and after the coup their number has grown several times.

Today they are involved both directly as military advisers and as foreign mercenaries, and they suffer casualties.

Yet I am certain that even if foreign countries are to send their troops officially, it will not change the situation on the ground – and this is the most important thing because arms supplies change nothing."
Vladimir Putin 13 March 2024

"It is a hybrid war that the West is waging against Russia, while using the Kiev regime to do the fighting. This is a very clear definition.

There is no Russian-Ukrainian war or confrontation.

There is the West using Ukraine as a tool to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia. We can generalise this as a hybrid war against our country.

Why is it a hybrid war? Because it is being waged by proxy: the West is doing it under the colours of another country and in using the political capabilities and figures it has planted in that country in advance.

The campaign includes a wide range of trade wars against Russia, which were unleashed long before it, as well as an information aggression against our country, with the latest technologies used to exert information and psychological pressure on Russians. This includes cyberattacks, calls made from Ukraine with callers posing as representatives of Russian law enforcement agencies or banks, or bomb scares concerning civilian infrastructure (we have listed those repeatedly).

Furthermore, they are using financial institutions to make our lives even more difficult, complicate economic relations with the world, including in making payments, and disrupt the development of entire industries in Russia by blocking cooperation in technological and scientific spheres.

This is a true hybrid war that the West has unleashed against our country using the Kiev regime to do the job."
Maria Zakharova 6 December 2023 

"The United States ... is waging a war against the Russian Federation using the Ukrainians as proxies."
Sergey Lavrov 26 June 2023 


"...The Russian side emphasised the fact that hostile actions by the United States, which had long since become a party to the conflict, have plunged Russian-US relations into a profound and dangerous crisis, fraught with unpredictable consequences. It is high time Washington realised that any form of aggression against Russia will continue to be invariably repelled in the most resolute way."
Russian Federation Press release on demarche to US Embassy in Moscow 26 May 2023


"When the special military operation began, the United States and other NATO and EU countries stepped up their proxy war against Russia. In fact, they had launched that war in 2014. ...aggressive steps by unfriendly states create an existential threat for Russia."
Sergey Lavrov 13 July 2023 

"... a larger and highly significant, if so far imperceptible mistake is that the United States is becoming more directly involved in this conflict. It is becoming involved – this is an obvious thing. And let no one say that it has nothing to do with this. We believe it has."
Vladimir Putin 18 October 2023


"These German generals discussed ways to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons (they mentioned the TAURUS) for attacking the Crimean Bridge and ammunition depots in a more subtle way. How to make sure they are not noticed ..., while the Americans and Brits are already there.

They also discussed whether it is possible to target missiles remotely without being in Ukraine. One of the generals said this would still be qualified as direct participation. They know what they are talking about. In one exchange, one general mentions that “men from the US in civilian clothes” are there. I don’t know how to say it but all of our NATO colleagues are guilty as hell. "
Sergey Lavrov 1 March 2024


"We know what American troops in the Russian territory are. These are invaders. That is how we will treat them even if they appear in the territory of Ukraine, and they understand it."
Vladimir Putin 13 March 2024

"The news about plans by Rheinmetall to build a tank factory in Malorossiya [East Ukraine], looks like Kiev regime’s primitive trolling. If krauts still go on with it for real, they’re very welcome. The decision should be greeted with fireworks by Kalibres and other Russian pyrotechnic devices
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation 5 March 2023

Question: "Why do we get targeted, while defending our interests?.."

Sergey Lavrov: "I cannot be responsible for the psychological condition of people who repeatedly, daily prove their lack of sanity."
25 June 2023 

"On September 15, 2022 and February 21, 2023, the Foreign Ministry made demarches with protest notes to the US Embassy in Moscow in connection with numerous facts of the direct involvement of US citizens, including retired and active military personnel, in hostilities as part of formations subordinate to the Kiev regime.

Russian officials said the arms supplied to the Kiev regime and the personnel servicing them were regarded as lawful targets for destruction.

We emphasised that to avoid negative consequences, the United States should immediately withdraw its military personnel, discontinue arms supplies and stop providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with guidance in real time for striking the deployment sites of the Armed Forces of Russia and civilians.

Russian officials made it perfectly clear to the Americans that the abetting the mass war crimes committed by Ukrainian formations is confirmed by objective evidence that cuts through the standard arrogant official explanations."
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 5 July 2023 

"If this decision is made, it will mean nothing short of direct involvement – it will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict dramatically.

This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia.

And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us."
Vladimir Putin 12 September 2024"

"On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the US, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.

From that point onward, as we have repeatedly emphasised in prior communications, the regional conflict in Ukraine provoked by the West has assumed elements of a global nature. Our air defence systems successfully counteracted these incursions, preventing the enemy from achieving their apparent objectives.

The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region, caused by the debris of ATACMS missiles, was extinguished without casualties or significant damage. In the Kursk Region, the attack targeted one of the command posts of our group North. Regrettably, the attack and the subsequent air defence battle resulted in casualties, both fatalities and injuries, among the perimeter security units and servicing staff. However, the command and operational staff of the control centre suffered no casualties and continues to manage effectively the operations of our forces to eliminate and push enemy units out of the Kursk Region."
Vladimir Putin 21 November 2024

"I would like to focus on important innovations in our conceptual interpretation of the acceptable conditions for the use of force in self-defence. 

We have confirmed our commitment to Art. 51 of the UN Charter. President of Russia Vladimir Putin once again stressed this at his meeting with African delegations in St Petersburg on June 17.

We note that we will be ready to take symmetrical and asymmetrical measures in response to the unfriendly use of force against us.

We have introduced a new postulate on it being possible to use the Armed Forces not only to rebuff but also prevent an armed attack on Russia or its allies, if this armed attack is absolutely inevitable.

Thereby we unequivocally let potential aggressors know that Russia will resolutely defend its right and the right of our allies to free and safe development."
19 June 2023

"...this kind of reckless policy may lead to a direct armed clash between the nuclear powers. I don’t think there is any need to go over the nature of the strategic risks...and the potentially catastrophic nature of the further development of events according to the worst-case scenario.

...the West is not ready to see our position adequately. So, the responsibility for the further degradation of the situation lies fully with the Western capitals....we can firmly reiterate that Russia is determined to uphold its security interests.

We recommend the West not to have any doubt about it.

Maria Zakharova, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, 21 June 2023

"The collective West not only steers an unrestrained flow of weapons to the Kiev regime, but also hosts training of AFU and nationalist battalions, providing the Ukrainian forces with intelligence for target designation and even authorizing strikes against specific targets with Western weapons.

At the same time Western countries assert diligently that they are not involved in a conflict with Russia. In other words, they pose as neutral. But international law, including the provisions of the 1907 Hague Conventions and customary international law, unequivocally forbids neutral states to take any such action. Otherwise it leads to the loss of neutral status and turns the state into a party to an armed conflict."

Trying to justify themselves, our former partners say the 1907 Hague Conventions to have become outdated. Weird to hear this from states whose military authorities on a regular basis issue bulky volumes about the laws and customs of war. By the way, those also include a considerable section of rights and duties of neutral states that incorporates among other things the norms of those “dated” Conventions. I stress that this is not about some doctrine-style publications. This is about practical guides for army and navy commanders, which provide for the harshest measures to be taken to respond to violations of neutrality, including the use of force.

The 1907 Conventions are effective international treaties that no one ever abolished. Their main goal is to prevent the proliferation of armed conflicts and engagement of further actors in them. This is relevant today as never before, because the collective West openly declares a goal of dealing a “strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield” and backs up these reckless claims with no less reckless steps.

All this suggests a metaphor about playing with fire, but things are actually even worse. In its militarist frenzy, having lost any connection to reality, the West is knowingly provoking a direct clash among the nuclear powers."
Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at UNSC briefing on arms deliveries to Ukraine, 29 June 2023

"Another argument is based on labeling our country an "aggressor" with reference to the resolutions of the 11th Extraordinary Special Session of the UN General Assembly. The United States, which has unleashed a record number of wars of aggression in modern history, pompously declares that one can help the "victim of aggression" without losing one’s neutral status.

Any self-respecting expert on international law would make a laughing-stock of such an argument...The main issue is that the UN Charter does not authorize the General Assembly to establish facts of "aggression”. Making any qualifications of this kind violates the provisions of the Charter and is null and void ‘ab initio’.

So it turns out that "aggressor" is not a legal qualification, but a political assessment. Without a legal basis, the entire construct of "qualified neutrality" falls apart.

The portrayal of NATO, to which Ukraine is so eager to enter, as a purely defensive alliance sounds like an unfortunate joke against the extensive record of unprovoked and unjustified military aggressions involving this militaristic bloc.

The speculations in the Western legal doctrine about alleged collective self-defense under Article 51 do not stand up to scrutiny either. There are two main issues here. We cannot recall the Security Council being notified, even though according to the UN Charter, this should be done immediately.

Besides, a statement of "self-defense" against Russia would have been tantamount to stating oneself at war with our country.

What’s even more interesting is a reference to alleged counter-measures under the international law. As we all know, such measures must meet the criterion of proportionality. But what kind of damage has Russia done to the United States or the European Union that would explain the killing of our citizens with Western weapons, the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipes, or terrorist attacks on prominent Russian public personalities?

Before it is too late, we recommend the authors of such speculative constructs to give some thought to the main question, which is as follows.

What should Russia’ counter-measures be in this case?

...when the Kiev regime, under pressure from its sponsors, stepped back on the agreements already made and also established a legal ban on peace talks with Russia, it became clear that Western states are not interested in achieving a sustainable and lasting peace in our region.

So what is it that we have today? Last March, Western countries did not allow Ukraine to agree with Russia on a peaceful coexistence and to become a neutral non-aligned state posing no threats. Instead, they are arming the country in a mad expectation that Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia.

The Western equipment is burning down, while the Kiev regime and its sponsors are running out of Ukrainian and other old Soviet equipment. ...today’s Ukraine can only fight using the weapons it gets from NATO. It has almost nothing else...Ukraine has no weapons of its own, but still has Ukrainians, who are being herded to the slaughter...The Kiev regime's mobilization reserve has not yet run out (although this is what’s coming)...

...The balance of power will not be altered by any weapon supplies, and most independent military experts already admit openly that the defeat of the Kiev regime is only a matter of time...

...our opponents still have in their "stash" high-profile staged terrorist attacks, which they try to "hang" on Russia, such as Bucha or the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. God forbid they should dare to provoke an accident at the ZNPP, which they keep firing at...Today we circulated a letter as an official document of the UN Security Council and General Assembly...that we have no intention of blowing up the plant that we control and urge the Secretary-General and the international community to influence Kiev to refrain from provocations against the ZNPP.
Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at UNSC briefing on arms deliveries to Ukraine, 29 June 2023  

Escalation of armed conflict Edited 28 November 2024

Escalation can be slow or rather fast. The best example of slow escalation is the the US proxy war on Russia.

Slow escalation

"We calibrate our measures of a military character depending on what the Americans will be realizing. We are not cranking up an arms race; we react to what is happening. The first steps have been taken, the radar is in place in the Kaliningrad oblast and the President also mentioned the possibility of deploying Iskander missile systems there – at subsequent phases (if required).

In general, the meaning of the whole idea underlying the President's message is to give a push to negotiations, to give a push to an agreement. If that fails, then other measures will follow.

Measures to enhance the capacity of our strategic nuclear forces to overcome missile defense systems.

Lots of options are possible – up to and including withdrawal from the New START treaty, which, in principle, the Americans also know, they understand it. But that is not our choice; we would not want this kind of development.

In general, the response is very compact, very efficient, effective, and, again, contains a political signal in favor of negotiations."
Sergey Ryabkov Deputy Foreign Minister, 21 December 2011

"This is exactly why we keep emphasising the risks in the US and NATO’s actions. They seem to have plunged into an illusion of impunity as they play around with chimeras like “escalation control” and “escalation dominance.” We continue sending the West sobering signals on the need to prevent a disaster, but they remain deaf to our appeals.

Moreover, they maliciously distort them for propaganda purposes.
Director of the Foreign Ministry Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control Vladimir Yermakov 25 April 2023  

In the same way that the west steadily escalated the economic pressure put on the Russian Federation, so it has escalated the scale of military involvement in their proxy war on Russia.

At first, the west commenced intensive cyberattacks:

"...the Pentagon’s Cyber Command and the National Security Agency are planning and coordinating cyberattacks under the Ukrainian flag at Russia’s critical information infrastructure.

The key targets include Russian banks and financial institutions, transport, energy and telecommunications infrastructure, large industrial facilities and network resources providing government services at federal and regional levels.

Ukrainian hacker groups affiliated with US intelligence agencies are actively involved in these attacks."
Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs 5 July 2023 

Question: Weapons supplies [to Ukraine] made headlines this week; they have even been promised fighter jets. Until recently, few dared even mention anything like this. Tanks, fighter jets – where is the limit to this escalation?

Sergey Lavrov: Until recently, they were afraid to mention anything other than helmets and bulletproof vests. This is what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said.

What we see now is an unacceptable escalation.

Political analysts in the West are already talking about “decolonising” Russia, meaning partitioning our country. They are playing with fire. There can be no doubt about it.
Sergey Lavrov,  28 May 2023

"NATO countries...are climbing the escalation ladder step by step and in their arms transfers have already gone the way from non-lethal weapons to long-range missiles.

Next are combat aircraft, which were developed as dual-capable systems....And what is then? Sending their own combat units and formations into battle with a significant amount of modern heavy equipment? Giving them nuclear weapons?

 ...with each new level, the degree of freedom of those making decisions becomes less and less...Where does this lead?

Just look at the history of the US being drawn into the Vietnam War and remember how it ended.

Now the consequences of escalation getting out of control will be much more grave.

We see not only the involvement of NATO countries and the alliance as a whole in the conflict around Ukraine.

We also see that preparations for a direct clash with Russia have already begun. Relevant plans include increasing the size of the armed forces and the number of weapons, their redeployment to the East, increasing military production, developing military transport infrastructure, creating strategic reserves, dehumanizing Russians in propaganda and even building prisoner of war camps...

Those who seriously hope to “inflict a strategic defeat on Russia” need to understand that there is no need to fuss...they will not live to see their planned victory over a Great Nuclear Power.
Anton Mazur Deputy Director of the Department for non-proliferation and arms control, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia 18 July 2024

" ...the use of US weapons in Kursk and Ukraine or anywhere else is an act of escalation for us, and it will have serious consequences.
We are absolutely blunt about this with our US colleagues."
Dmitry Polyanskiy, Chargé d’Affaires of the Russian Federation 14 August 2024

The sequence of slow escalation was summarised at the 16th BRICS summit at Kazan :

"...it was not Russia's actions that precipitated the escalation in Ukraine, but rather the 2014 coup d’etat, supported primarily by the United States. It was even publicly disclosed how much financial support the then US Administration allocated towards preparing and orchestrating this coup.

Is this not a pathway to escalation?

Subsequently, we were misled for eight years with assurances that everyone sought to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through peaceful means, specifically via the Minsk Agreements.

Later on, ...several European leaders openly admitted that they had been deceiving us, as they had used that time to arm the Ukrainian military. Is this not the case? It is indeed.

Further steps towards escalation involved Western countries actively arming the Kiev regime. What was the outcome?

It led to the direct involvement of NATO troops in this conflict. We are aware of the actions undertaken and the methods employed when unmanned marine vehicles are deployed in the Black Sea. We know who is present there, from which European countries – NATO members they are, and how they conduct these operations.

The same applies to military instructors, not mercenaries, but military personnel. This also pertains to the deployment of high-precision modern weaponry, including missiles such as ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and so on. Ukrainian servicemen cannot execute these operations without space reconnaissance, target indication and Western software – requiring the direct involvement of officers from NATO countries...

...of course, people get scared whenever the international situation deteriorates or when they witness escalation in various conflict zones, be it the Middle East or Ukraine.

But we are not the ones behind this escalation. It is always the other side that seeks to escalate tension.

But we are ready for this escalation. It is up to you to decide whether the countries who are doing this are also ready."
Vladimir Putin 24 October 2024

First Ukraine was supported with years of NATO training and equipping.
Then Ukraine was supported with intensive satellite and other intel and data processing and interpretation.
Then sent body armour for Ukrainian soldiers.
Then shoulder launched defensive missiles.
Then Soviet era artillery and other munitions from ex-Soviet states.
Then shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles.
Then M777 howitzers.
Then old ex-Soviet tanks.
Then armoured fighting vehicles.
Then HIMARS multiple launch rocket system.
Then NASAM antiaircraft/guided missiles.
Then anti-mining armoured ploughs.
The advanced German leopard tanks.
Then Storm Shadow missiles.
Then cluster bombs.
Then powerful unmanned marine drones
Then Taurus missiles with a 500 kilometer range (stopped in late 2024)
Then HIMARS launched MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) with 160 kilometer range equipped with cluster munitions

Then on 23 February 2024, Ukraine shot down a Russian A50 AWAC over 200 kilometers from the line of contact. This may be a French made Aster30 system, which has a range of 600km, it may be a modified S200, it may be some other western missile. The British also have the Aster30 system, and it has probably been supplied to Ukraine.  Several hours before the shootdown an article appeared in a Ukrainian news site repeating a recent NATO announcement Ukraine has the right to attack Russia in its depths.

Then on August 6 2024 Ukraine entered the undisputed territory of the Russian Federation (Kursk) using NATO weapons and intelligence. A combined Ukrainian and NATO country 'mercenary' force of over 30,000, brutally attacking locals, and kidnapping some civilians. It is widely suspected the target was to capture the Kursk nuclear plant.

Then NATO supplied Ukraine with F16 planes, capable of carrying and launching JASSM missiles with a range of about 370 kilometers (similar to the UK storm shadow missile).

Then the US said it was 'considering' supplying these same JASSM-ER systems, with a range "over" 370 kilometers. The JASSM-ER has a range of about 925 kilometers, and can easily reach Moscow, St Petersburg, and beyond. It has the range to reach one of the Russian Federations strategic airbases - which hosts bombers that launch Russia's nuclear and conventional hypersonic missiles.

Then, in the dying months of the Biden administration, the export to Ukraine of 'long range' ATACM missiles were allegedly authorised by Mr. Biden. In the early morning of the 19th of November 2024 six USA-controlled ATACMS were fired at Bryansk, in undisputed Russian territory. The new Russian policy on nuclear deterrence was also signed on the 19th of November 2024, coming into effect on the day of signature.

" President Putin conveyed that on numerous occasions and let everyone know that our stance would change if the long-range capability (up to 300 kilometres), which they are now discussing, gets approved. 

Essentially, this isn’t an “approval” for Ukraine to use long-range missiles, but their way to announce that they will from now on hit targets at a distance of up to 300 kilometres."
Sergey Lavrov 21 November 2024

"We basically take our position on the basis of what is going on physically. And physically, ATACMS, apparently not as long as 300 kilometres, are being used, including this early morning in Russia, against the Bryansk Region of Russia, which is bordering Ukraine. And we proceed from the understanding that this is happening, and that any modification of ATACMS cannot be used without American experts and instructors, including satellite data, programming, and targeting."
Sergey Lavrov 21 November 2024

Mr. Lavrov recognises the ATACMS used were unable to strike further than 300 kilometers, partly because the Americans select the targets and program the missiles to fly less than 300 kilometers, and partly because any close approach to the line of combat would endanger the Ukrainian launch platforms. Even if the ATACMS used had the capacity to fly further than 300 kilometers, the Ukrainians are unable to change the programming to exploit that capability. The USA continues to dance on the edge of the cliff in spite of Russia's previous warnings.

"...attempting to build up multifaceted missile threats to Russia, the United States has openly and manifestly launched the deployment of ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles, which were previously prohibited under the INF Treaty, around the world. ...Washington deliberately destroyed the treaty...

After that, the United States immediately revitalised the creation and testing of that class of missiles and started forming special region-specific military units ...Today, the United States is deploying these missile systems in Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region...which shows that the manufacturing and testing of these weapons are in full swing.

We hereby expressly declare that we reserve the right to respond in kind, no matter where US-made intermediate- and shorter-range missiles are deployed, which would amount to the termination of Russia’s unilateral moratorium on the deployment of these weapon systems.

In reply to US actions, Russia will step up the upgrade and start manufacturing similar missile systems.

This would not take long, taking into account the previously announced R&D projects and progress in the Russian defence industry.

If a deployment decision is taken, we reserve the right to deploy these weapons at our discretion."
Russian Federation Foreign Ministry statement 6 May 2024

The phrase "no matter where US-made intermediate- and shorter-range missiles are deployed" clearly means on Russia's border close to Poland and Romania, and in Russia's Kuril Islands, just north of Japan. The phrase "we reserve the right to deploy these weapons at our discretion" implies the various short range and medium range missiles could be deployed on Russia's Pacific coast within range of Alaska and South Korea, and wherever US missiles are deployed in Europe and the United Kingdom. They could also be deployed in North Korea, and China, although, even when stationed in Russia, the 5,000 km range allows these countries to be protected from US missiles deployed in the Asia Pacific, although, with appropriate low altitude radar coverage, closer is better. Deployment in Venezuela puts these missiles less than 3,000 kilometers from US CENTCOM in Florida. Syria, Iran, Yemen can all be 'covered' by Russian missiles fired from the Black Sea shoreline. And while the US can fire a salvo of hundreds of cruise missiles at Russia from its carriers in the Mediterranean, those same carriers are within easy reach of Russia's land based intermediate range missiles, not to mention air launched missiles.

The intermediate range missiles deployed by USA are slower. And Russia has the worlds best anti-missile defense missiles. The United States knows this.Yet they continue to escalate.

"More broadly, this unending escalation can lead to serious consequences.

If Europe were to face those serious consequences, what will the United States do, considering our strategic arms parity? It is hard to tell. Are they looking for a global conflict?"
Vladimir Putin 28 May 2024

"Question: Over the past few days, we have been hearing statements at a very high level in the UK and the United States that the Kiev regime will be allowed to strike targets deep inside Russia using Western long-range weapons...Could you comment on what is going on?

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: ...this is not a question of whether the Kiev regime is allowed or not allowed to strike targets on Russian territory. It is already carrying out strikes using unmanned aerial vehicles and other means.

But using Western-made long-range precision weapons is a completely different story.

The fact is...the Ukrainian army is not capable of using cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied by the West. They cannot do that.

These weapons are impossible to employ without intelligence data from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This can only be done using the European Union’s satellites, or US satellites – in general, NATO satellites. This is the first point.

The second point – perhaps the most important, the key point even – is that only NATO military personnel can assign flight missions to these missile systems. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this.

Therefore, it is ...about deciding whether NATO countries become directly involved in the military conflict or not.

If this decision is made, it will mean nothing short of direct involvement – it will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict dramatically.

This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia.

And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us."
Vladimir Putin 12 September 2024

"The President mentioned this several times: if long-range missiles are going to be applied from Ukraine into Russian territory, it will also mean that they are operated by American experts, military experts. And we will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia, and we'll react accordingly."
Sergey Lavrov 19 November 2024

Russia has now publicly made its position absolutely crystal clear. If the west provides long range missiles (which can carry a 'bunker busting' payload, unlike drones) then NATO has made itself a party to the conflict, and all NATO assets can legitimately be attacked by Russia, no matter where they are on earth (or space). If you consider Mr. Ryabkov's  comments of 2011, we can deduce that Russia will simply neutralise the threat placed in front of it, rather than over-reacting. Arguably, the threat is from NATO satellites. Russia may have the means to 'fry' the electronics using its land-based laser system.

A long range missile (over 300 kilometers) sent into undisputed Russian territory by a non-nuclear state whose ally is "involved" in the conflict allows Russia to use nuclear weapons. This is stated in article 11 of Russia's revised nuclear doctrine. The relevant condition for use is if the attack is a 'decapitating strike' on command and control, an attack on military infrastructure (such as radar) which would disrupt a nuclear response, and an attack with conventional forces that "critically" threaten the territorial "integrity" or sovereignty of Russia.  But article 12 refers the "inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies".  It refers to nuclear weapons in particular, but can be understood as a general principle, using other weapons. These other weapons will now include the massive kinetic strike power of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile system.

A "significant" launch of an attack by aerospace forces of an enemy may elicit a transition to a nuclear response. Ukraine is not formally an ally of NATO. It's incursion into Kursk was not critical, the Ukrainian strike on a Russian radar station involved in nuclear deterrence was not enough to disable it. These attacks did not pass the nuclear threshold. Responses, per Alexander George, are flexible, show determination to force a behaviour to stop, and are retaliatory rather than escalatory. This means that as long as the missiles remain within the 300 kilometer range window, Russia's military technical response will be on Ukraine. For example, the Oreshnik 'signal' to Ukraine was ignored, and Ukraine launched ATACMS into Russia, hitting a local field radar, but remaining within the 300 kilometer window. On 30 November 2024, Russia responded with an attack on the electricity system of the undisputedly Ukrainian territory.

NATO members, including USA, are part of the 'Missile Technology Control Regime' (MTCR) which is an informal 'political understanding' that agrees not to supply missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's) that can carry 500 kgs or more of explosives and travel over 300 kilometers to other countries. It is not legally binding, so it is up to NATO to decide whether to supply Ukraine with +300 kilometer 'long range' missiles or not. But NATO is really USA. Unless the europeans exercise their power of veto within NATO for the first time, the europeans may end up as the target - while the US watches from the safety of isolation. Or so the US believes.

Providing F16 aircraft is almost the final escalation. F16 fighter aircraft are capable of carrying modified indigenous Ukrainian missiles designed to act as a 'dirty' bomb. If capacity to release a tactical nuclear glide bomb were added to the F 16s, this would be an existential threat to the Russian Federation. This is a realistic threat because Ukrainian engineers may have the competency to build a small nuclear glide bomb, and certainly have the capacity to build their own 'dirty bomb' capable of being carried long distances by cruise or ballistic missile. In this case, the Russia response would target undisputed Ukraine, probably with multiple hypersonic strikes, possibly even a decapitating strike.

"....The 60th Munich Security Conference on February 16-18 was reduced to nothing but discussions of the situation in Ukraine and how to prevent the failure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine...Ukrainian representatives again spoke about the need to restore the country’s nuclear status. ...Indicatively, at the Munich Security Conference in February 2022, Zelensky threatened the audience with revisiting Kiev’s renunciation of nuclear arms.

 We are convinced that the international community must take seriously these dangerous statements, all the more so since Ukraine has preserved the scientific and production potential to manufacture nuclear arms since Soviet times."
Maria Zakharova 21 February 2024

Providing JASSM-ER (or similar) F16-launched missiles that hit Russia's strategic assets or command and control centers would be the final escalation. (Hosting these Ukrainian aircraft and their extended range missiles within NATO countries would add to it, but not change Russia's targeting). Russia would be entitles to transition to nuclear weapons. But won't. As long as Oreshniks are available, they will use those in a mass hypersonic weapon precision attack whose effect will be the equivalent of a small tactical nuclear weapon, but without the civilian casualities. NATO assets could be targeted, in line with the stated policy that Russia would strike at those who launched the weapons and those who ordered the strike. If you program the missile, you choose to become an aggressor.

The question is, if the US is a party to the war, if the west is at war with Russia, who should be hit first? And hit demonstratively, to stop further conflict in its track. Russia has gone to the Security Council to warn NATO that if it supplies long range missiles to Ukraine it will be a party to the conflict and it will be at war with Russia. The 19 November 2024 change to the Russian nuclear doctrine reinforces the coercive deterrent warning. All this was done to prepare the legal grounds for the use of the Oreshnik.

Russia has already fulfilled its obligations under the UN Charter to discuss its concerns with the aggressor and outline further steps if the aggressor doesn't back down. If coercion doesn't work it is entitled to rely on article 51 - self defense. And recall that Russia has operationalised the "new postulate" - that when a fight is unavoidable Russia is entitled to make a preemptive strike. Mr Ryabkov's 2011 comments provide a guide to Russian reactions, but the context of this unacceptable escalation by the west is completely different.

Today, anyone relying on the 'safety' of yesterdays contextual Russian principles will end up shocked and shaken - or worse.

"Question: How would you comment Ukraine’s demands as set forth in The Guardian? They seek the green light to use the Storm Shadow missiles to target Moscow and St Petersburg as a way to force Moscow to negotiate.

Sergey Lavrov: This is blackmail, an attempt to pretend that the West seeks to avoid any excessive escalation. In reality, they are full of mischief. Avoiding escalation is not what the West is after. To put it into plain language, they are simply picking a fight.

...John Kirby, who is the White House National Security Communications Advisor...said that escalation would be dangerous, since it would be extremely ill-advised to let the situation slide into a world war and that Europe would be the one to suffer in the process.

Recently, John Kirby said this again. For Americans, any talk about the third world war comes down to something that would affect Europe alone...this idea reflects the mindset of the American planners and geostrategy experts who believe that they can simply sit the whole thing out.

I think that it is important to understand in this situation that we have our own doctrine, including the one governing the use of nuclear weapons. An effort to update it is underway.

Moreover, these Americans are well aware of the provisions it sets forth.

This fact transpires from the Freudian slips they make when they say that having a third world war would be a bad thing because they do not want Europe to suffer. This is what this American mindset comes down to.

They have a mindset of a master sitting somewhere out there overseas and believing to be totally safe and secure, thinking that not only Ukrainians, but also, as it turns out, Europeans would be willing to do the dirty work and die for them.

We have long been hearing speculation about authorising Ukraine to use not only the Storm Shadow missiles, but also US-made long-range missiles. There was an anonymous source in Washington who said that they were working on it. This source purported that their overall view of Ukraine’s request is quite positive. I will stop at that. President Vladimir Putin said all about it quite a while ago.

Now, all we can do is confirm once again that playing with fire is a dangerous thing for the men and women in charge of nuclear weapons across the Western world, but they are playing with matches as if they never grew up.

the West is ...doing everything to have Ukraine continue the escalation (as they call it) in hopes... that we will lose our cool and do something that will allow the West to “change the chessboard.” It won’t work.

We will fulfil our goals and do so just like President Putin said, in a way that will meet our interests in the best way: first, save our people and, second, protect the people whom the Nazi regime in Kiev declared terrorists and deprived them of basic rights, including the right to their own religion, faith, language, and much more.

They will not be able to provoke us"
Sergey Lavrov 27 August 2024

"With regard to our relations with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, you may be aware that the Treaty on Strategic Partnership was ratified, I believe, just today. It has Article 4, and we have never doubted the fact that the DPRK leadership takes our agreements seriously. However, it is up to us to decide what we will do and how we are going to do it, and we will act in accordance with this article. First, we need to hold talks regarding the implementation of Article 4. However, we will be in contact with our North Korean friends to see how this process unfolds.
Vladimir Putin 24 October 2024

"No one else in the world has such weapons yet, as we and you know. Indeed, sooner or later other leading countries will have them, we know what kind of designs are being worked on there. However, it will be tomorrow, or in a year or two. Meanwhile, we have this system today. And this is essential."
Vladimir Putin 22 November 2024

"Vladimir Putin: Let us assume that the decision on the serial production of this system has been made. As a matter of fact, it has already been essentially organised. Given the particular strength of this weapon, its power, it will be put into service with the Strategic Missile Forces.

First Deputy Chair of the Military-Industry Commission of Russia Vasily Tonkoshkurov: The system was indeed developed in the shortest possible time and is entirely based on Russian technologies. Import substitution issues have been resolved. The defence industry enterprises’ research, development and production base makes it possible to launch a serial production of this type of weapon as quickly as possible."
22 November 2024

"...we will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats posed to Russia. All the more so as we have a stockpile of such products, a reserve of such systems ready for use."
Vladimir Putin 22 November 2024

"[the developers and productions teams involved in creating] the Oreshnik system...and the short time it took you to develop this new system inspire pride and admiration. They convincingly show that the domestic school of rocket engineering possesses tremendous potential and is capable of addressing the most complex tasks to ensure Russia’s security and sovereignty.

In this context, importantly, the Oreshnik system is not an upgrade of old Soviet-era systems, even though we are all originally from the Soviet systems, and we were all raised on the accomplishments of previous generations and, to a certain degree, we built on their achievements. However, this system is, in fact, the result of your work that was done in modern Russia, new Russia. The system relies entirely on contemporary cutting-edge innovations".
Vladimir Putin November 22 2024

"Considering the positive results of this launch, it seems reasonable to ...improve its capabilities"
Sergei Karakayev, Commander of the Strategic Missile Forces November 22, 2024

Fast escalation Added 11 August 2024
The rapidly heating up conflict in the Israel-Lebanon theatre is a good example of a fast-moving escalation, at great danger of escalating out of control. This is the great advantage of fast escalation in coercion - it creates a very great sense of danger and urgency, which gives the possibility of achieving a settlement which could not otherwise be reached. Or utter disaster.

"The Islamic Resistance continued on Friday striking the Israeli occupation posts and settlements near Lebanon southern borders in response to the Zionist aggression on South Lebanon and support of Gaza.

Hezbollah Military Media issued consecutive statements to detail the attacks and their outcomes.

The first statement mentioned that the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a gathering of “Israeli” enemy soldiers in the vicinity of Al-Metula site with missile weapons at 09:40 am on Friday, August 9, 2024, resulting in a direct hit.

The second statement underscored that, in response to the “Israeli” enemy’s attacks on the steadfast southern villages and safe homes, particularly in the town of Hanaouay, the Islamic Resistance fighters bombarded on Friday, August 9, 2024, the command headquarters of the 769th Brigade in Kiryat Shmona barracks with a salvo of Katyusha rockets.

The third statement affirmed that, in response to the attack and assassination carried out by the enemy in the towns of Hanaouay and Al-Naqoura, the Islamic Resistance fighters on Friday, August 9, 2024, launched an aerial attack with a squadron of precision drones on the command headquarters of the coastal battalion belonging to the newly established Western Brigade in Liman, targeting the positions and concentrations of its officers and soldiers, hitting their targets accurately and inflicting confirmed casualties.

The fourth statement mentioned that, in response to the “Israeli” enemy’s attacks on the steadfast southern villages and safe homes, particularly in the towns of Kfar Kila and Aita Al-Shaab, the Islamic Resistance fighters on Friday, August 9, 2024, targeted buildings used by enemy soldiers in the Kiryat Shmona settlement with appropriate weapons, resulting in a direct hit.

The Israeli media circulated a video which showed the moment a Burkan missile landing in Kiryat Shmona.

In response to the assassinations and attacks carried out by the “Israeli” enemy, particularly in the towns of Al-Naqoura and Hanaouay, the Islamic Resistance fighters bombarded on Friday, August 9, 2024, the command headquarters of the 769th Brigade in the Kiryat Shmona barracks with Falaq rockets, according to the fifth statement.

The sixth statement maintained that, in response to the “Israeli” enemy’s attacks on the steadfast southern villages and safe homes, the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted on Friday, August 9, 2024, a building used by the enemy soldiers in Al-Manara settlement with appropriate weapons.

According to the seventh statement, the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted at 01:25 on Friday, August 8, 2024, Al-Sammaqa site in the occupied Lebanese Kfarshuba Hills with rockets, hitting it directly.

The eighth statement maintained that the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted on Friday, August 8, 2024, buildings housing Israeli soldiers in Al-Manara settlement with appropriate weapons, inflicting direct hits.

The ninth statement affirmed that, in response to the “Israeli” enemy’s attacks on the steadfast southern villages and safe homes, the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted on Friday, August 8, 2024, buildings housing Israeli soldiers at Doviv settlement with appropriate weapons, inflicting direct hits"
Almanar article 9 August 2024

"...as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know.

We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.

...it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones"
Donald Rumsfeld 12 February 2002

Military pain point
There are several actors deciding the other sides military potential and demonstrated resolve mean that the pain they can inflict goes beyond the point that can be borne militarily. The key indicators of military resolve within a conflict are low and falling morale, breakdown of discipline, loss of control of frontline troops, corrupt officers, desertion, and increasing numbers of psychologically damaged soldiers. These effects are amplified in non-professional armies of civilian conscripts, willing or unwilling.

As the Afghanistan and Gaza conflict show, urban and near-urban warfare in populated areas carried out with highly mobile small squads in close quarters, drones, planted explosives, urban sniping, and so forth is very difficult to suppress. In a population committed to resistance, the idea of 'winning' is the wrong concept.

A non-expeditionary conflict fought with missiles (air, land, or sea based) between Israel and Iran is a mismatch of capacity, and as importantly, a mismatch of concentration of targets. Many targets in Israel are deliberately placed near civilian buildings in the belief Iran would not attack them for fear of civilian casualties. (Israel's attacks on Gaza observes no such niceties) . But precision missiles can now destroy targets - even designated levels within a building - with relatively high confidence that damage to adjacent civilians will be minimal.

The military must assess their own ability to shoot down missiles and drones, the ability of the western powers to do the same, how sustained a drone and missile attack is likely to be, when Israel will run out of anti-missiles defences, when allies will have to replenish missiles, where they will do it, whether re-supply ports like Haifa will be targeted, how to cope with a simultaneous Hezbollah attack, whether the west will attack Lebanon as a result, what type of targets Iran would prioritise (logistics, energy, nuclear weapons sites, military ports, Mossad facilities, military staff command sites, arms factories, radar installations, chemical factories, etc), where to place the limited air defenses, whether GPS will be available, whether power will be available, whether oil and gas will be available, and so on.
If targets hit by Iran 'require' an Israeli reply, they have to go through the same process again, but in the knowledge that there will be an escalation by Iran as Iran then needs to re-establish deterrence anew.

Most importantly, they have to assess Iran's ability to quickly locate aerial attacks, ability to shoot down missiles and aircraft, and Iran's ability to jam either or both.

"The range of the new surveillance extends well beyond the S-300 strike distance of 200 kilometres, and covers US drone and aircraft bases on the Arabian peninsula, as well as US warships in (and under) the Persian Gulf and off the Gulf of Oman.

Early warning of US air and naval-launched attacks has now been cut below the old 4 to 6-minute Iranian threshold.

Counter-firing by the Iranian armed forces has been automated from attack warning and target location. This means that if the US is detected launching a swarm of missiles aimed at Iran’s air-defence sites, uranium mines, reactors, and military operations bunkers, Iran will launch its own swarm of missiles at the US firing platforms, as well as at Saudi and other oil production sites, refineries, and pipelines, as well tankers in ports and under way in the Gulf.

“The armed forces of Iran,” said a Russian military source requesting anonymity, “have air defence systems capable of hitting air targets at those heights at which drones of the Global Hawk series can fly;  this is about 19,000 to 20,000 metres.

Iran’s means of air defence are both foreign-purchased systems and systems of Iran’s own design; among them, in particular, the old Soviet system S-75 and the new Russian S-300. Recently, Iran transported some S-300’s to the south, but that happened after the drone was shot down [June 20]. Russian specialists are working at Bushehr now and this means that the S-300’s are also for protection of Bushehr.”"
John Helmer, 25 June 2019

John Helmer's report was over 4 years ago. Given Iran helped Russia in its conflict with Ukraine by licensing Iranian drones so that they could be produced at Russian arms factories, it is certain Russia returned the favor - even before the Israeli strike on Iranian territory. Were even more advanced air defense missiles supplied? Advanced radar? There are a range of possibilities, but they remain largely unknown. (also see above 'strategic defeat of Israel')

Israel would have to assess the number of submarine launched missiles it has to reach Iranian facilities deep within mountains (the vast missile base  in the Alborz mountains, Tehran, is at least 500 meters deep), the kind and quantity of explosive power needed to damage, if not destroy them, the missile flight time to the target, and the detection and response batteries deployed to neutralise such attacks. All in the knowledge that once an attack is identified, the response will be immediate. The US then has to worry about whether a submarine launched attack will be done by Israelis, but blamed on the US (or possibly, although unlikely, vice versa).

Then there are the known unknowns. Does Iran have underwater listening stations around its waters? And does it have underwater drones capable of destroying Israeli or US submarines? (Just one obvious example).

Then there are unknown unknowns. Iran is a technologically highly capable society. It may have developed various novel defensive or offensive capabilities that the US and Israeli have no conception of, and that they therefore could not even speculate about.

If, after considering all the factors the military staff conclude the price of an escalation is too high, they have to convince the by now highly emotionally triggered politicians to stop. The question for the Iranians - and maybe the Americans as well - is whether or not the politicians will listen.

"...the potential for a full-scale war and its associated high costs have become more pressing, as highlighted by Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi when he emphasized Iran’s missile capabilities during the retaliatory operation:

During Operation True Promise, more than 100 missiles were launched toward Israel in just 100 seconds, at a rate of one missile per second. The United States, Israel, and their regional allies never anticipated that Iran could execute such a precise and large-scale operation....""

Ali Salhein, The Cradle, 10 August 2024

Much depends on the competency of military staff officers, their access to the key political figures, their integrity, their willingness to tell the plain unvarnished truth, and even the force of their personality.

Political pain point
The political side is the flakiest of all. Emotions turned on 'high may cause a major failure point in a systematic, fact-based analysis. Analysis may be distorted by competing influential factions in government. Other distortions include orrupt politicians enriched as long as conflict continues, strong personalities with extreme religous or political dogma clouding their judgement, fear of the shifting mood of the electorate. As tension from all sides builds the politicians make poor decisions - poorly considered, cowardly, recklessly defiant decisions, contradictory decisions, decisions inadequate to effectively deal with the root cause of multi-dimensional calamity.

"The American deployment of naval forces and the arrival of aircraft at U.S. bases in Arab countries will not alter the decision to retaliate. The response to the enemy is a strategic and essential measure to deter the criminal and malicious Israeli enemy, which brazenly commits atrocities. No matter the attempts to contain the response, they will fail...the decision is inevitable from all support fronts, and any delay in the response is a calculated measure to ensure it is painful for the enemy, ...the delay in response has had a tangible impact on the enemy, which has never before faced such fear.

This is evident in the cancellation of flights and the widespread anxiety among Israeli settlers. Panic and fear have gripped the entire Israeli occupation entity.

Hezbollah’s impactful operations against the Israeli enemy continue, as demonstrated by video footage. Fear and anxiety among Zionists regarding the group’s response are evident, as it is expected to be both painful and consequential.”
Sayyed Al-Houthi Leader of Yemeni Ansarullah organisation 15 August 2024

The mood of the great majority of the people is, at a certain point, overwhelmingly important. Uncertainty creates fear that builds and builds as long as there is no resolution. The Israelis have reinforced houses, and are well practiced in sheltering when the warning sirens sound. To that extent, they are 'used to' episodic and limited bouts of fear. The Palestinians live with low level fear and uncertainty all the time, and to an extent are hardened to it. But the Israelis have not experienced a determined and sophisticated missile and drone attack. Yet the Iranian carefully staged deterrent attack demonstrated that the most sophisticated and powerful Iranian missiles will almost certainly hit their intended target.

The Iranian deterrent signal failed to impress the Israeli politicians. Now the Israeli population live in fear as it awaited the Iranian response (part of Iran's 'punishment' of Israel).

The Israeli politicians have to assess whether Iran will make a limited response, or whether the Iranians will keep their word and make the decisive response they said they would if Israel attacked Iran again.

The politicians must also consider the worst case aftermath of a spiral of escalations. Again, Israel is a tiny country. Haifa is within range of both Hezbollah and Iranian missiles. It is an important military port, regularly used by the USA. Again, infrastructure is expensive to replace. The economy is in bad shape, and worsening by the month. Dual passport European and American Israelis are fleeing. Some are considering the long term viability of Israel under such an aggressive self-defeating theological government. Capital is likely to flee if a conflict drags out. The USA may decide to pull it's military pseudo-bases out from Israel - especially if US ships are damaged.

Further, the Hezbollah armed forces are some of the best irregular military operatives in the world, many with considerable experience in field operations. Their ability to infiltrate northern Israel has meant Israel must house the locals as great cost in the safety of more southern regions. This is expensive and embarrassing for Israel.

"The Rezwan forces are highly skilled and have undergone rigorous training. They are proficient in using anti-tank weapons and explosives. They possess the ability to travel long distances and perform difficult missions in mountainous areas. Additionally, they excel in carrying out secret and sensitive military operations in a thoroughly professional manner.

Rezwan forces are said to be divided into seven- to 10-man squads, each operating independently without constant orders or logistical support from a central command. Their main feature is actually the operational independence given to its commanders, and these commanders are allowed to make quick tactical decisions on the battlefield. They have the speed, flexibility and noteable striking capability that characterizes any military force.

Yediot Aharonot quoted Israeli security sources as saying, “As long as the Rezwan unit is on the Lebanese border, the residents of the northern settlements who have been evacuated have no hope of returning to their homes.”

Military operations along the northern borders have led to widespread evacuations of settlements.

The Israeli Ministry of Housing and Immigration reports that hundreds of thousands of settlers have left the occupied territories since the start of the war.

According to the latest reports, more than 250,000 Israeli citizens have been displaced by the war, with some 164,000 ordered or recommended to evacuate with government compensation and nearly 150,000 evacuated without being asked. The number of Israeli refugees increases daily."
South Front 16 August 2024

"Andrei Kolesnikov: Kommersant newspaper, Andrei Kolesnikov.

Can the use of Western long-range weapons be viewed as an act of aggression? Overall, can the shelling of Belgorod and Russian territory in general be viewed as an act of aggression?

Vladimir Putin: This matter requires further investigation, but it is close. We are looking into it. What are we dealing with in this case? Those who supply these weapons believe that they are not at war with us.

As I have already said, including in Pyongyang, we reserve the right to supply our weapons to other regions of the world.

I would not rule out this possibility in terms of our agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

We can also adopt the same position on the question of where these weapons end up. Take the West, for example. They supply weapons to Ukraine, saying: We are not in control here, so the way Ukraine uses them is none of our business. Why cannot we adopt the same position and say that we supply something to somebody but have no control over what happens afterwards? Let them think about it.
20 June 2024

"Today, we are all determined to implement everything we have agreed upon with the Russian Federation. As you noted in your remarks, we must properly address the areas, in which the Americans are acting against us. We will join our efforts in addressing these matters.Our military-technical cooperation is making strides"
Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 11 July 2024

""Turkey is playing a dangerous game by granting nationalities [dual citizenship] to Sunni groups in the north, sometimes under the pretext that some of them belong to the Turkmen ethnicity, and at other times on the pretext that they are of Turkish origin, and the number of those [Sunni Lebanese] who have obtained Turkish citizenship has reached more than 50,000.” This blatant foreign aggression is exactly how Turkey started a war in Syria, by infiltrating the country through its mercenaries and supplying them with weapons."
The Phoenix Daily 5 November 2020

"The resistance of the Palestinian nation has turned the world of resistance into a global resistance, and today resistance is not exclusive to Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Islamic countries, but even in the Western world, resistance is mentioned as a belief, a doctrine, and a political discourse in the international arena and Americans as well as Zionists have to accept the fact...

...Today, from the International Court of Justice in The Hague to the US Congress in Washington and from the United Nations General Assembly in New York to the Human Rights Council in Geneva, from the East to the West, from Islamic and non-Islamic states, from Muslims and followers of other religions, they have realized the truth that resistance is a superior and correct discourse and it has become a reality, and this is what bothers the US and the Zionists.”
Ali Bagheri, Acting Foreign Minister of Iran 14 August 2024

"We all must establish this fact: the United States is totally responsible for the war raging in Gaza against unarmed defenseless people. It is the United States that vetos condemnation of Israel in the Security Council. It'is the United States that stands on the way of a ceasefire in Gaza. It is the United States proving once again, as described by Khomeini, it is the greatest Satan, the great devil.

From Hiroshima to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, the United States must be held liable and then penalized for all what it has been perpetrating against our people and the peoples of the region."
Hassan Nasrallah 4 November 2023

"Iran's Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, sent letter of strong protest to UN officials, and cited the basis for recognizing the Israeli regime as a terrorist one, the Fars news agency reported on Wednesday.The Iranian Ambassador in Geneva explained that according to article 2.1 of the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, the institutions of the Israeli regime should be recognized as terrorist"
Sputnik 14 August 2024

"Press TV website in a previous analysis reported about political, military, and intelligence installations in Tel Aviv as potential targets due to their direct involvement in the terrorist attacks in Tehran and Beirut.

Beyond Tel Aviv, Haifa is home to several important military bases, regime headquarters, and strategic military industries, making it a significant target of the imminent retaliation.

The credibility of Haifa sites as potential targets has been supported by recent reports in Israeli media outlets such as Haaretz and Yedioth Ahronoth, and more notably, in a speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah."
Press TV 15 August 2024

Warrants to arrest the American President (Trump) and others who directed the terrorist attack that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani are still current

."From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Trump is a criminal who must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law for ordering the assassination of General Soleimani...Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice."
Head of Iranian Mission to the United Nations July 2024

Hezbollah must re-establish the deterrence equation with Israel
Hezbollah's possibilities are much more limited. It has no strategic depth. It has limited weapons manufacture possibilities.
It must live adjacent to Israel. It is a small country. Yet the equation, the balance of terror, must be re-established. If it isn't, Israel will continue airstrikes.