Off the top of my Head
Imaginative Speculation #0001 - Behind closed doors on the
Russian - American security Treaty
by Laurie Meadows
26 February 2022 1600 hrs NZDT (0230 UTC) updated 1000 hrs NZDT
(0900 hrs UTC)
Joe Biden is a highly intelligent man. And an experienced and
cunning politician. He did what no other US President had done - he
swallowed pride and brought the disastrous 20 year old American
military incursion in Afghanistan to an end.
He was heavily and unjustly criticized or this politically brave
act. He won't make the same mistake twice.
The USA is concerned with the Russian hypersonic missiles, which are
unstoppable. The Americans want to negotiate a new treaty taking
these new realities into account. As always, they want to negotiate
'from a position of strength'. So they cancelled all but one of the
US - Russia strategic stability Treaties. Their thinking is
sclerotically rigid and always founded in a 'for us to win you must
lose' bias. This is understandable, as up to now they were the
dominant force.
Russia had asked for negotiations on strategic stability, including
in space, for a long time. I have inserted a long quote from the
Russian Government, and it should be read carefully. Bear in mind
that Russia is an honest player, it doesn't bother with stupid name
calling and mind games. It says what it means and means what it
says:
"The unilateral withdrawal of the USA
from the INF Treaty is the most urgent and most
discussed issue in Russian-American relations. This is why
I am compelled to talk about it in more detail.
Indeed, serious changes have taken place in the world
since the Treaty was signed in 1987. Many countries have
developed and continue to develop these weapons, but not
Russia or the USA – we have limited ourselves
in this respect, of our own free will. Understandably,
this state of affairs raises questions. Our American partners should have just said so honestly
rather than make far-fetched accusations against Russia
to justify their unilateral withdrawal from
the Treaty.
It would have been better if they had done
what they did in 2002 when they walked away from
the ABM Treaty and did so openly and honestly.
Whether that was good or bad is another matter.
I think it was bad, but they did it and that is that.
They should have done the same thing this time, too.
What are they doing in reality? First, they violate
everything, then they look for excuses and appoint
a guilty party. But they are also mobilising their
satellites that are cautious but still make noises
in support of the USA. At first,
the Americans began developing and using
medium-range missiles, calling them discretionary “target
missiles” for missile defence. Then they began deploying
Mk-41 universal launch systems that can make offensive combat
use of Tomahawk medium-range cruise missiles possible.
I am talking about this
and using my time and yours because we have
to respond to the accusations that are leveled
at us. But having done everything I have just
described, the Americans openly and blatantly
ignored the provisions envisaged by articles 4
and 6 of the INF Treaty. According to Item
1, Article VI (I am quoting): “Each Party shall eliminate
all intermediate-range missiles and the launchers
of such missiles… so that… no such missiles, launchers…
shall be possessed by either party.” Paragraph 1
of Article VI provides that (and I quote) “upon
entry into force of the Treaty and thereafter,
neither Party may produce or flight-test any
intermediate-range missile, or produce any stages
or launchers of such missiles.” End of quote.
Using medium-range target missiles
and deploying launchers in Romania and Poland
that are fit for launching Tomahawk cruise missiles,
the US has openly violated these clauses
of the Treaty. They did this some time ago. These
launchers are already stationed in Romania
and nothing happens. It seems that nothing is happening.
This is even strange. This is not at all strange
for us, but people should be able to see
and understand it.
How are
we evaluating the situation in this context? I have
already said this and I want to repeat: Russia
does not intend – this is very important, I am
repeating this on purpose – Russia does not intend
to deploy such missiles in Europe first. If they really are built and delivered
to the European continent, and the United
States has plans for this, at least we have not
heard otherwise, it will dramatically exacerbate
the international security situation, and create
a serious threat to Russia, because some
of these missiles can reach Moscow in just 10–12
minutes. This is a very serious threat to us.
In this case, we will be forced, I would like
to emphasise this, we will be forced to respond with
mirror or asymmetric actions. What does this
mean?
I am
saying this directly and openly now, so that no one can
blame us later, so that it will be clear to everyone
in advance what is being said here. Russia will be
forced to create and deploy weapons that can be used
not only in the areas we are directly threatened from,
but also in areas that
contain decision-making centres
for the missile systems threatening us.
What is
important in this regard? There is some new information. These weapons will fully correspond
to the threats directed against Russia in their
technical specifications, including flight times
to these decision-making centres.
We
know how to do this and will implement these plans
immediately, as soon as the threats to us
become real. I do not think we need any further,
irresponsible exacerbation of the current international
situation. We do not want this.
What
would I like to add? Our American colleagues have
already tried to gain absolute military superiority with
their global missile defence project. They need to stop
deluding themselves. Our response will always be efficient
and effective.
The work
on promising prototypes and weapon systems that
I spoke about in my Address last year continues
as scheduled and without disruptions. We have launched
serial production of the Avangard system, which
I have already mentioned today. As planned, this year,
the first regiment of the Strategic Missile Troops
will be equipped with Avangard. The Sarmat super-heavy
intercontinental missile of unprecedented power is undergoing
a series of tests. The Peresvet laser weapon
and the aviation systems equipped with Kinzhal
hypersonic ballistic missiles proved their unique characteristics
during test and combat alert missions while
the personnel learned how to operate them. Next
December, all the Peresvet missiles supplied
to the Armed Forces will be put on standby alert.
We will continue expanding the infrastructure
for the MiG-31 interceptors carrying Kinzhal missiles.
The Burevestnik nuclear-powered
cruise missile of unlimited range
and the Poseidon nuclear-powered unmanned underwater
vehicle of unlimited range are successfully undergoing
tests.
In this
context, I would like to make an important
statement. We did not announce it before, but today we can say
that as soon as this spring the first
nuclear-powered submarine carrying this unmanned vehicle will
be launched. The work is going
as planned.
Today
I also think I can officially inform you about another
promising innovation. As you may remember, last time
I said we had more to show but it was a little
early for that. So I will reveal little by little
what else we have up our sleeves. Another promising innovation,
which is successfully being developed according to plan, is Tsirkon, a hypersonic missile that can
reach speeds of approximately Mach 9 and strike
a target more than 1,000 km away both under water
and on the ground. It can be launched from
water, from surface vessels and from submarines,
including those that were developed and built
for carrying Kalibr high-precision missiles, which means it
comes at no additional cost for us.
On a related note, I want to highlight that
for the defence of Russia’s national interests, two
or three years ahead of the schedule set
by the state arms programme, the Russian Navy will
receive seven new multipurpose submarines, and construction
will begin on five surface vessels designed
for the open ocean. Sixteen more vessels of this
class will enter service in the Russian Navy
by 2027.
To conclude,
on the unilateral withdrawal by the USA
from the Treaty on the Elimination
of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, here
is what I would like to say.
The US policy toward Russia in recent years can hardly
be called friendly. Russia’s legitimate
interests are being ignored, there is constant
anti-Russia campaigning, and more and more sanctions,
which are illegal in terms of international law, are
imposed without any reason whatsoever. Let me emphasise that we
did nothing to provoke these sanctions. The international security architecture
that took shape over the past decades is being completely
and unilaterally dismantled, all while
referring to Russia as almost the main threat
to the USA.
Let me
say outright that this is not true. Russia wants to have
sound, equal and friendly relations with the USA.
Russia is not threatening anyone, and all we do
in terms of security is simply a response, which
means that our actions are defensive. We are not interested
in confrontation and we do not want it, especially
with a global power like the United States
of America. However, it seems that our partners fail
to notice the depth and pace of change around
the world and where it is headed. They continue with
their destructive and clearly misguided policy. This hardly
meets the interests of the USA itself. But this is
not for us to decide.
We
can see that we are dealing with proactive and talented
people, but within the elite, there are also many people
who have excessive faith in their exceptionalism
and supremacy over the rest of the world.
Of course, it is their right to think what they want.
But can they count? Probably they can.
So let them calculate the range
and speed of our future arms systems. This is all we
are asking: just do the maths first and take
decisions that create additional serious threats to our
country afterwards. It goes without saying that these
decisions will prompt Russia to respond in order
to ensure its security in a reliable
and unconditional manner.
I have already said this, and I will repeat that we
are ready to engage in disarmament talks, but we will not knock on a locked door
anymore. We will wait until our partners are ready
and become aware of the need for dialogue
on this matter."
Vladimir Putin, February 20, 2019
You simply don't get a clearer warning and appeal to negotiate in
good faith. But instead of sitting down and negotiating mutually
acceptable terms in good faith, the USA ideologues felt they had to
'dominate' Russia first.
So the USA has used the Ukraine as its 'fall guy' to put pressure on
Russia. It has done this by stuffing it with more and more weapons,
and created endless (literally) training missions to Ukraine,
beefing up Ukrainian runways, and working on 'alternative pseudo
alliances' that will allow land-based offensive missiles to be based
10 minutes flight time from Moscow. There is nothing to distinguish
a 'defensive' from an 'offensive' missile.
This places Russia in a position of either 'forcing' a security
treaty with USA, or placing hypersonic missiles within 10 minutes of
Washington, either from sea or from land (perhaps in Cuba).
"...there also are mechanisms to address these
problems,...I hope that they will be used to prevent
situations like the Cuban Missile Crisis. There is no reason
for such developments...Is there a tough standoff between two
systems now like it used to be in the Cold War era? There isn’t.
There are some mutual grievances and differences in approaches to
resolving issues but that is no excuse for starting a
confrontation like the Cuban Missile Crisis that occurred in the
1960s...If someone wants it, let them have it. I said today what would happen."
Vladimir Putin, February
20, 2019 at a media briefing
So Russia did what it had to - it wrote an effective security
treaty, fully in line with existing principle of Treaty lore - and
not subject to delay or bargaining - including the three core
principles that ensure Russia's security without detracting from
anyone else's security.
Well, after the negative reception to the Afghan pull-out, Joe Biden
could not afford the political risk of being seen to sign a treaty
with Russia, no matter how balanced and reasonable it was.
He knew he had to refuse to sign. And so...
Warning - my highly speculative musing, with zero proof!
And so, in talks with the Russian President, he canvassed options.
Maybe it went something like:
President Biden: Politically we cannot sign this. We can't pull our
military out of Ukraine, unless, of course, they are placed in
dangers way.
President Putin: We cannot allow Ukraine to host missile systems
that will endanger the existence of the Russian State.
President Biden: What will you do if we don't pull out of Ukraine?
President Putin: You have clearly stated you will not sign a
mutually satisfactory Security Treaty for you internal political
considerations. We will be forced to remove the risk from Ukraine.
President Biden: How, specifically?
President Putin: Again, we will be forced to eliminate the Military
potential of Ukraine. It will be an adequate military-technical
response, focusing on military installations of all kinds.
Naturally, such response has dangers for any foreign troops placed
there. In addition, we intend to end the Ukrainian threat to the
security of the people Donbass by first agreeing to their long
stated demand for us to recognize their independent status, and
second forming a mutual defense treaty with them. We will take the
opportunity to find and arrest or eliminate those neo-nazi elements
responsible for crimes against humanity in the Donbass.
President Biden: When will you do this?
President Putin: we will tell you close to the time. We will give
you adequate time to remove your people.
President Biden: If you do this, we will have to apply heavy
sanctions against you. However, we are interested in continuing to
import oil from you.
President Putin: You will not receive any oil from us unless you
continue to sell oil drilling equipment to us.
President Biden: All right. We will sanction your major banks.This
will include third party sanctions. This will cripple your economy.
President Putin: We will see this as an act of war, and make an
appropriate response.We do not want this.
President Biden: All right, we will exclude energy sector
transactions and exclude third party sanctions. You can use Euro or
yuan.
President Putin: That provision falls short of an act of war. But
you will be shooting yourself in the foot. That is not our concern.
President Biden: We already have missile deliver systems in Romania
and soon Poland. How will you view these in future?
President Putin: These could be subject of negotiation, and this
might include effective verification.
President Biden: Politically, the conditions will be ripe for a US -
Russian post-conflict de-escalation - in the event, of course, you
actually attack Ukraine. If you forgo military action in Romania we
will keep missile systems out of Poland. But we will need to have
serious negotiations on strategic stability after the next
Presidential election.
President Putin: No, it must be before your election distractions.
There is no guarantee you will occupy the Presidency after the
election, and we cannot count on a favorable mood for peace coming
from a new President of the other party.
President Biden: No. I can't give any guarantees. The political
climate would not allow any meeting short of an existential crisis
between us, such as a causus belli, for example extending
sanctions to include you and Foreign Minister Lavrov.
President Putin: I warn you, any military or cyber attack on Russia
will be responded to with military technologies the like of which
you have never experienced before.
President Biden: And personal sanctions, how would you react?
President Putin: We will make an appropriate non-military response.
But I emphasize, we want peace and security, and we both bear a
special responsibility for that.
President Biden: Yes, I agree. Let's allow it to play out, and then
we can meet our responsibilities together, including assuring
security for all.
President Putin: All right. This sounds like "not one inch
eastwards". We reserve the right to respond asymmetrically to any
duplicity in the execution of this last sentiment. We will not allow
delay.
This imaginary conversation sounds implausible, but, in general
'secret talks' do happen in diplomacy. Their content is never
revealed. There are several things about recent events that I
thought a little odd.
1. The American President, at a certain point said, apropos of
nothing in particular, words to the effect that 'now that the course
of events are set I can concentrate on getting more diverse advice,
and getting out to meet the public more'.
2. Sergei Lavrov showed Anthony Blinken something in talks on the
sideline of, I think, the recent OSCE event. He rushed off and
pulled all the American staff from the embassy. Perhaps he was
advised of the approximate date.
3. The entirety of the major vessels Russian fleet had already left
port for the open sea, standing off at the ready.
4. A large US exercise had placed a US fleet in the Mediterranean.
5. Several Russian hypersonic missile carrying advance
fighter-bombers arrived at the Russian military base in Syria.
6. Likely President Macron had been advised, as he rushed to Russia
in a last ditch effort to give the Ukranians - who were patsys in
all this - time to 'come round' and sign the Minsk agreements. Or so
we are told. Perhaps he had tried to intermediate between the
Russians and Americans. But he had no mandate from USA, so was
powerless.
7. President Biden was absolutely adamant Russia was going to attack
Russia, and roughly when. It seemed politically risky to me, but if
he had the approximate timing, then it was a slam dunk.
8. Close to the time - several days before, well connected and
balanced American analysts pushed the idea Russia would invade,
which seemed to be out of character.
9. President Biden was clear from the start there would be no
American troop involvement in Ukraine.
10. President Biden has made a feature of a reconstruction of
diplomacy in the American State Department.And his messaging always
repeats that diplomacy is the preference.
"a moment where a leader is beginning and in the
middle of invading a sovereign country is not the moment where
diplomacy feels appropriate. It does not mean we have ruled out
diplomacy forever. Obviously, the President remains open to
engaging on a leader to leader level but this is not the moment."
USA spokesperson Jen Psaki 25 February, 2022
This, of course, should be considered a flight of fancy. But just
maybe some elements of this did happen. After all, both USA and
Russia have unusually heavy burden of responsibility for not letting
things get out of control, for all our sakes, as well as their own.
And both the Russian and the American President are well aware that
we are entering a climate emergency, an emergency which has to be
responded to without distractions. No one can afford unnecessary
armed conflicts.
Back to earth
In reality, the USA Government doesn't need to do anything to meet
Russia's security demands. Ukraine is a tool to put pressure on
Russia. The USA is not concerned for what happens there - it
deliberately pressurised the Ukraine Government, inciting it to
evade complying with the hard-won Minsk agreements. It held out
false promise of a 'new Kosovo' in East Ukraine, complete with US
bases. USA has a long record of callous disregard for civilian
casualties. It has spent millions to arrange deadly weapons to be
delivered to religion-incited criminal thugs in Syria - in the full
knowledge of the horrors they would inflict on civilians there. And
this is but the most recent example. So the USA feels no moral
pressure whatever to avoid injury and death to any civilian
population anywhere - as long as it is not US citizens. So, when
Russia leaves Ukraine, the USA may swamp it with new high tech
weapons and defense systems, perhaps even pre-emptively placing
land-based nuclear missiles there.
The USA President may well have had excellent analysis establishing
both that an attack was planned and pinning down the most likely
window when it would happen.
And if the USA Government had planned to carry on with it's plans to
surround Russia with land-based potentially nuclear armed missiles
then it could afford to ignore Russia's pleas for security
guarantees. Land-based missiles may take 10 minutes to reach Moscow
right now, but in a few years the USA Government will have it's own
hypersonic missiles. Based in Ukraine, Finland, Romania, Poland,
some would reach Moscow in seconds, missiles in Taiwan or Japan
would reach eastern Russia (or China) in minutes, and in large
numbers might swamp the Russian missile defenses.
The USA clearly intends to place nuclear weapons in space, if it
hasn't already done so. This is a completion of a 'dome of
destruction'. If Russia does the same, well, it's a downwards arms
race spiral.
USA has enormous resources within it's national boundaries, and
needs very little from Russia. But constantly confronting Russia is
a useful tool for dragging obedient European countries into it's
plans and projects. The Europeans dutifully place trade embargoes on
Russia, and receive trade embargoes in return. Russia and Europe
lose a lot of business. And the USA picks some of it up.
Taken as a whole, the USA could, and maybe does, take the view that
it doesn't needs to pay any attention at all to Russia's security
concerns.
Maybe they are right. But what if they are wrong?
Index of Laurie Meadows' articles on security